San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
NL Division Series Game 1
Saturday, October 3, 2026
8:30 PM ET, American Family Field
The Brewers are heavy home favorites at -213 in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Padres at American Family Field. San Diego sits at +178 on the moneyline. The total is 7. My play is the Under 7.
Jacob Misiorowski is the reason to bet the Under. The 24-year-old right-hander went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and led the majors in ERA, strikeouts and opponents’ batting average, a combination no pitcher had pulled off since Mike Scott in 1986. He threw more 100-mph pitches than any starter in the pitch-tracking era, and he enters the postseason on a roll, having not allowed a run in 13.1 innings across his last three starts. He’s the favorite for the NL Cy Young.
San Diego has already seen what he can do. Misiorowski faced the Padres on May 13 and threw seven shutout innings, allowing four hits with 10 strikeouts and no walks. The Padres won that game 3-1, but every one of their runs came in the ninth inning on a Gavin Sheets three-run homer off closer Abner Uribe. Against Misiorowski himself, the Padres got nothing.
The Padres’ pitching has been just as stingy in October. San Diego swept the Cubs in the Wild Card Series, winning 8-0 behind Michael King in Game 1 and 4-1 in Game 2, holding Chicago to one run across 18 innings. Fernando Tatis Jr. led off Game 1 with a homer, and Sheets came through again with a pinch-hit two-run shot in Game 2, but the story of the series was a pitching staff and bullpen that didn’t give the Cubs anything.
Robbie Ray is the question mark on the San Diego side, and he’s the biggest risk to this pick. Craig Stammen surprised some people by choosing Ray over Walker Buehler. Ray went 13-8 with a 3.59 ERA overall, but he posted a 5.02 ERA with 27 walks in 43 innings after joining the Padres at the deadline, and he has a 7.43 career postseason ERA. He did hold Milwaukee to two runs over four innings in August. With Ray likely on a short leash in an elimination-style series, expect San Diego to turn to its bullpen early, and that’s the same bullpen that just shut down the Cubs.
Milwaukee won 103 games and has been resting since the end of the regular season, so the Brewers’ bullpen will be fresh behind Misiorowski. If he works six or seven innings the way he did in May, the Padres’ path to more than two or three runs is narrow. The Brewers will need to do most of the scoring to push this game over 7, and Milwaukee’s lineup will be facing a San Diego staff that has allowed one run in two postseason games.
Realistic outcomes: Brewers 3, Padres 2 (5 total); Brewers 4, Padres 2 (6 total); Brewers 3, Padres 1 (4 total); or Brewers 5, Padres 3 (8 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 7. The Over likely needs Ray to unravel early and the Padres’ bullpen to give up runs it hasn’t been allowing.
The Pick: Padres/Brewers Game 1 Under 7
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