New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
AL Division Series Game 1
Saturday, October 3, 2026
6:30 PM ET, Tropicana Field
The Rays are home favorites at -135 in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees at Tropicana Field. New York sits at +113 on the moneyline. The total is 7. My play is the Yankees at +113.
Gerrit Cole has handled this lineup. He posted a 2.50 ERA across three starts against Tampa Bay this season, and he carries a 2.93 ERA in 12 career playoff starts for the Yankees. His overall numbers this year (10-9, 3.61 ERA) are a step below his usual standard, but the Rays have not been the team that has hurt him. In a game priced as close as this one, Cole’s track record against this specific opponent and in October is worth more than his season ERA suggests.
The Yankees’ offense arrives red hot. New York swept Boston in the Wild Card Series by scores of 9-0 and 9-2, outscoring the Red Sox 18-2 and holding them to a .117 batting average. Cody Bellinger hit a three-run homer and drove in four runs in the clincher, and Luis García Jr. homered and collected three hits in his first postseason start. All of that came without Aaron Judge, who missed the series with a calf injury and remains uncertain for Saturday.
Drew Rasmussen is the reason Tampa Bay is favored, and he deserves the respect. He went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP, and he’s 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA in 11 career appearances against the Yankees. He closed the regular season by carrying a no-hitter into the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium with 11 strikeouts. But this lineup has gotten to him at Tropicana Field. In his lone home start against New York this year, Rasmussen allowed six runs in 2.1 innings. The Yankees have shown they can break through against him in this building.
Tampa Bay was excellent at home this season, going 55-26 at Tropicana Field and winning five of six home games against New York. That’s the biggest risk to this pick. But the Rays have been off for nearly a week, while the Yankees have played two games and scored 18 runs. With a total of 7, this projects as a low-scoring game where one big inning decides it, and plus money on the hotter team with a pitcher who has handled this lineup is the right side.
Realistic outcomes: Yankees 4, Rays 3 (Yankees win); Rays 3, Yankees 2 (Rays win); Yankees 5, Rays 2 (Yankees win); or Rays 4, Yankees 1 (Rays win). This is close to a coin flip, and at +113 the Yankees are the better price.
The Pick: New York Yankees ML +113
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