Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 1, 2026
4:25 PM ET, Empower Field at Mile High (CBS)
The Kansas City Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over the Denver Broncos, with the total sitting at 41. My play is Under 41.
The last time Kansas City took the field, it scored three points. Three. Patrick Mahomes went 19 of 33 for 165 yards with a pick in a 20-3 loss at Seattle, and the Chiefs went 3 for 11 on third down. Now they get a Denver defense that might be even meaner, in the thin air, in a rivalry where the Under has cashed seven meetings in a row.
And yet about three of every four tickets on this total are on the Over. I’ll happily take the other side.
Mahomes is playing with a patched-up roster
The Seattle loss wasn’t a fluke. Kansas City played without Rashee Rice (hamstring) and right tackle Jaylon Moore (concussion), with Josh Simmons already on IR, and the backup tackles got exposed. Butker also missed from 58 and 45, but the bigger problem was that nothing moved downfield. Travis Kelce was limited by an ankle issue last week, and Rice and Moore are still up in the air for Sunday.
Denver’s pass rush has 21 sacks, fourth most in the league. The Broncos also rank third in success rate allowed (how often they win a down) and fourth against the pass by EPA, which measures how much each play helps or hurts a team’s scoring chances. That’s not the matchup a short-handed passing game wants.
Denver’s offense still can’t get out of its own way
The Broncos are 5-2 because of their defense. Bo Nix has thrown for 1,271 yards with 7 touchdowns, but Denver ranks 29th in offensive success rate and 30th in passing success rate. Nix has been below average on a per-dropback basis, and his completion rate is under what you’d expect from the throws he’s making. Sean Payton himself has called the slow starts a problem.
Denver converts just 32.6% of its third downs. Kansas City’s defense ranks sixth in EPA allowed and second in run success rate allowed, so J.K. Dobbins (293 rushing yards) shouldn’t be able to bail out a stalled drive.
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The clock is about to move fast
Here’s the quiet part. Kansas City’s best offensive weapon this year is Kenneth Walker’s legs, not Mahomes’ arm. The Chiefs rank second in rushing EPA, and Walker has 701 yards. Denver ranks 27th against the run by EPA, so expect Andy Reid to lean on the ground game, especially with a makeshift line in pass protection. Long drives and a running clock are how a 41 total stays under.
The trends agree. Kansas City is 2-4 to the Over this year, and Denver is 2-5. The opener was 43.5, and it’s already come down to 41 even with the public on the Over. When the money moves against the tickets, I take notice.
The case against me
Week 1 is the nightmare. Denver missed 28 tackles in a 31-10 loss at Arrowhead and Nix fumbled three times. Turnovers that hand the Chiefs short fields could push this over in a hurry. Kansas City also gives up the fewest sacks in the league, and if Rice and Moore return, the offense looks a lot more like the one that started 5-0. A Nix scramble or a defensive score could also wreck a low number.
Projected score
Two defenses that win the down-to-down battle, two offenses that like to run, and a rivalry that keeps going low. I’ve got the Chiefs edging it 20-17, with the game decided by a late field goal rather than a shootout.
The Pick: Under 41 (-110)
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