Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 8, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Hard Rock Stadium
The Lions are 7-point road favorites over the Dolphins with a total of 50.5 at most books, and my play is Lions -7.
Fifteen touchdowns, one interception. That’s Jared Goff’s line through seven games, per ESPN, and on Sunday he gets the defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in expected points allowed per dropback.
Goff and Gibbs walk into the softest secondary in football
Detroit is 5-2 and has won three straight, even if the last two (20-17 over Green Bay, 19-15 over Minnesota) were grinders. The offense is still humming underneath those scores. Using nflverse play-by-play data through Week 8, the Lions rank third in EPA per dropback and third in success rate, which means they stay ahead of the chains about as well as anyone.
Jahmyr Gibbs is carrying the backfield on his own this year with David Montgomery gone, and he has 773 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, both near the top of the league per SI. He ran for 153 yards against the Vikings last week. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 571 yards and five scores. Pick your poison.
Miami’s defense doesn’t have an antidote. The Dolphins are 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 32nd in success rate allowed, so opponents are moving the ball on them nearly every snap. The last time the Lions hit the road, they hung 45 on Arizona in a 45-21 laugher. That’s the template.
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Miami keeps building leads and handing them back
The Dolphins are 1-6 and 0-3 at home. Last week they led New England 13-3 at halftime and lost 24-19, per ESPN’s box score. Malik Willis played fine that day (21-of-32, 211 yards, two touchdowns, one pick), but he’s thrown six touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, and the offense ranks 24th in EPA per play and 27th in success rate. Losing De’Von Achane to a torn ACL took away the one player who could flip a game with a single touch. Ollie Gordon II (408 yards) is a grinder, not a game-breaker.
Miami scores 16.7 points a game. To cover a touchdown spread, it needs to hang 24 or so on Detroit, and this offense has cleared 24 points just once in its last five games. Detroit rates 18th in net EPA per play; Miami is 30th. That gap supports a margin north of seven, even on the road.
Where this goes sideways
Detroit’s defense is held together with tape right now. Safety Kerby Joseph won’t play, per Dan Campbell, and linebacker Jack Campbell is listed as doubtful after a neck injury that sent him to the hospital. “There’s not a man on this team that doesn’t respect Jack Campbell and care about him,” the coach said this week. Brian Branch and DJ Wonnum both left the Minnesota game with concussions, and linebacker Jimmy Rolder is done for the year. This unit already ranked 30th in EPA allowed per play and gives up 298.7 passing yards a game. If Willis gets hot against a patchwork secondary, Miami can absolutely keep it inside a touchdown. The Lions are also just 3-4 against the spread and 1-2 on the road.
I’d still lay -7, but I’d stop there. At -7.5, I’d look elsewhere.
Projected score: Lions 30, Dolphins 20
The Pick: Lions -7 (-110)
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