San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, November 15, 2026
4:25 PM ET, AT&T Stadium
San Francisco is a 3.5-point favorite at most books (a few are at 4), and the total is 55.5. My play is 49ers -3.5.
This line opened with Dallas favored by 1.5. It has moved five points since, about as clear a vote of no confidence as you’ll see in November. I agree with it.
The Cowboys are 4-5 and 1-3 at home, and their own team site admits that inconsistency is the one thing you can count on. Dallas has blown double-digit second-half leads in each of the last two weeks. It lost one of those games, in overtime to Arizona, and survived the other in Indianapolis. A team that can’t hold a lead against those two now gets the best team in the NFC.
Dallas can’t stop the run, and San Francisco has McCaffrey
The number that decides this game is 147.4. That’s how many rushing yards Dallas allows per game, and San Francisco is built to take advantage of it. Christian McCaffrey already has nine rushing touchdowns, and the 49ers run for 135 yards a game. When they get inside the 20, they lead the league with an 84.6% touchdown rate, according to the Cowboys’ own site. Dallas gives up 26.2 points a game. That’s the wrong combination when the other team finishes drives this well.
Brock Purdy is third in the league in passer rating at 109.8, with 17 touchdowns and five picks. He has also run for 201 yards and two scores, which gives defenses one more thing to deal with.
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The other side of the ball isn’t close either
Dallas can score. Dak Prescott has 16 touchdown passes, and CeeDee Lamb has 904 receiving yards. But San Francisco only gives up 80.9 rushing yards a game, so Javonte Williams likely won’t get much going, and Prescott will have to do most of it himself. The 49ers also added help before the deadline, bringing back DeForest Buckner on the defensive line and trading for Keenan Allen at receiver. Allen just played against the Cowboys last week with the Colts, so he has a recent look at this secondary.
What could go wrong. San Francisco is banged up. Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and Mike Evans (Achilles) are questionable at receiver, cornerback Deommodore Lenoir is questionable with a foot injury, and defensive tackle Gracen Halton is out for the year. This is also only the 49ers’ third true road game of the season, and five of their seven wins came at home. Dallas is dangerous as a home underdog in a high total. If Lamb gets loose against backup corners, this could turn into a shootout and come down to a late backdoor cover.
I’ll lay the -3.5 and would still bet it at -4. At -4.5 or higher, I’d pass.
Projected score: 49ers 31, Cowboys 24
The Pick: 49ers -3.5
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