Joe Jensen

Peralta’s 53 walks in 128 innings has been a persistent liability — and Baltimore’s power-dependent lineup, coming off a three-game sweep where it scored five total runs, is no guarantee to cash in on those free baserunners. The total is posted at 8.5 with slight juice toward the Under at -117, and the projection of 9.3 combined runs barely clears it. The breakdown is inside.

Globe Life Field plays close to neutral at a 1.05 park factor, removing weather entirely from the run-environment equation. The total is posted at 7.5 with the under priced at -118 — sharp money has already found this game. The pick is inside.

Dobbins vs. Luzardo is a clearer mismatch than a combined total of 8.0 implies. The under is priced at -118 — reflecting real awareness of the gap — but the Cardinals’ .699 OPS and 999 strikeouts suggest even that number underestimates Luzardo’s suppression ceiling. The analysis is inside.

Misiorowski’s 0.75 WHIP and 100.5 mph fastball have made him one of the most suppressive starters in baseball — and Sale’s 2.16 ERA with 11.16 K/9 isn’t far behind. The total sits at 6.0 (Under -111), a number that looks fair on paper but undersells how dominant both starters have been across extended samples. The pick is inside.

The Angels’ .235 team batting average and 1,197 strikeouts are the exact profile Lambert’s 3.11 ERA is built to exploit. The market is pricing the over at -105 — cheaper than the under — as if Rodriguez’s 7.17 ERA guarantees a six-run Houston outburst in a dome that suppresses run scoring. The angle is inside.

The bullpen gap between these two teams is secondary to what’s happening on the mound — Alvarez (3.72 ERA) and deGrom (3.95 ERA) are both capable of suppressing offenses that have been grinding against quality starters all series. The total is posted at 7.5 with the over juiced to -115, pricing in Washington’s MLB-high 182 home runs against a dome that sits at just a 1.05 park factor. The side is inside.

Cole vs. Bradish is a clearer mismatch than the -120 moneyline implies. Bradish’s 3.92 BB/9 against a Yankees lineup with 457 walks on the season is compounding pressure the price hasn’t caught up to — a bullpen missing its closer absorbs the damage late. The full read is inside.