Burns vs. Alcantara is a clearer mismatch against the run environment than the posted total of 8.0 implies. The under is priced at -117 — a number that credits the park factor more than it credits two starters projecting to work deep with elite contact-suppression profiles. The analysis is inside.
Joe Jensen breaks down Saturday’s Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens preseason opener with a spread play on the Ravens at home, backed by Jesse Minter’s NFL head coaching debut.
Liberatore’s 5.15 ERA and 1.52 WHIP have made him one of the more hittable starters in the National League — and the Cubs’ 155-homer offense is exactly the kind of lineup that exposes him. The total is posted at 8.0 (Under -110), a number that prices in Liberatore’s blowup risk but underweights Holmes’ 2.86 ERA against a Cardinals team that doesn’t walk, doesn’t slug, and ranks among the weakest offenses in the league. The pick is inside.
Joe Jensen breaks down Saturday’s Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints preseason opener with a total play backed by both head coaches publicly confirming their starters will sit.
The bullpen gap between these two clubs is compounded by a combined five Milwaukee relievers on the injured list, yet the price on this total hasn’t fully accounted for who’s starting. Sasaki’s real season line — 2.65 ERA, 0.89 WHIP — sits well behind what the 8.5 total at -114 implies about tonight’s run environment. The side is inside.
deGrom vs. Urena is a clearer pitching setup than the flat 8.0 total implies. The over is taxed at -115 while both offenses — Texas at a .714 OPS and Los Angeles at .686 — struggle to generate hard contact against quality arms. The full read is inside.
Nola’s 5.47 ERA and an unresolved knee injury walk into a matchup against a Bradley who carries a 3.76 ERA and a cutter generating a 34.9% whiff rate. The total sits at 8.5 with the over juiced at -117 — pricing this as though both starters are on equal footing. The breakdown is inside.
Joe Jensen breaks down Saturday’s Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs preseason opener with a total play backed by Andy Reid’s own comments and both starting QBs sitting out.
Ashcraft vs. Phillips is a clearer mismatch than the 8.0 total implies. Ashcraft’s 1.16 WHIP and 2.17 BB/9 sit inside a dome running a 0.95 park factor — the market is leaning on season averages while the actual conditions point lower. The analysis is inside.
The bullpen gap between these two teams leans New York’s way — the Yankees carry a 3.30 team ERA and have been clean in relief, while Seattle hasn’t strung runs together against quality pitching recently. The total is posted at 7.5 with the over priced at -115, yet the underlying model projects 9.1 combined — a 1.6-run margin the market hasn’t fully closed. The edge is explained inside.