Quick Recap:
• Record: 8-4-1
• Units: +7.0
• Best Win: Texas Rangers ML (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Kansas City Royals ML (-2.4u)
Joe Jensen closed May 20 with a +7.0 unit profit, finishing 8-4-1 on the day’s graded card. The result was built on a balanced approach: six winning totals plays, two successful moneyline positions, and four losses that stayed within the two-unit risk tier. With no exposure above 2.6 units on any single position, the card avoided catastrophic variance while capitalizing on clean reads in the pitching-dominant matchups that defined the slate.
The win rate alone—8-4-1—tells only part of the story. What mattered was where the exposure landed and how the graded positions performed. Jensen’s totals portfolio carried the day, going 6-2-1 with wins in Baltimore-Tampa Bay, Houston-Minnesota, Cleveland-Detroit, Toronto-New York, Los Angeles-San Diego, and Pittsburgh-St. Louis. The losses came on three totals (Oakland-Anaheim, Chicago-Seattle, Cincinnati-Philadelphia) and one moneyline (Kansas City), but none of those positions exceeded 2.36 units risked. The unit allocation kept downside manageable even as the card split evenly on higher-profile plays.
Rangers at Rockies
Pick: Texas Rangers ML (-130) | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Final Score: Texas Rangers 5, Colorado Rockies 4
Texas rallied late to complete a two-game sweep in Denver. Josh Jung delivered the go-ahead single in the ninth after Joc Pederson scored the tying run on a passed ball. Ezequiel Duran and Jake Burger hit back-to-back homers in the fourth to stake the Rangers to an early lead, but Colorado clawed back with two runs in the fifth. The Rangers trailed 4-3 heading into the ninth before the late rally. Jung finished 3-for-4 with a walk, and the Rangers cashed a clean two-unit win after dominating the series opener 10-0.
Athletics at Angels
Pick: Under 9 (-110) | Result: Lost (-2.20u)
Final Score: Athletics 6, Los Angeles Angels 5 (10 innings)
The under looked comfortable through eight innings with the game tied 5-5, but Jeff McNeil’s tying homer in the ninth forced extras. Tyler Soderstrom’s RBI single in the 10th pushed Oakland ahead, and the total landed at 11. The game featured early offense—four runs in the first, four more in the second—but settled into a pitching duel from the third through the eighth. The Athletics had dropped the series opener 14-6, and this one followed a similar offensive script despite the tight middle innings. The under fell short after a competitive read was undone by extra-inning variance.
Sox at Mariners
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) | Result: Lost (-2.20u)
Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5, Chicago White Sox 4
Seattle’s three-run seventh inning pushed the total over the line. Jhonny Pereda hit his first MLB homer in the frame, and Randy Arozarena added a two-run shot while scoring three times on the night. The game stayed under through six innings, with Chicago and Seattle trading single runs early. The White Sox had won the series opener 2-1 in a low-scoring affair, and this one tracked similarly until Seattle’s bullpen allowed the late surge. The under was competitive but missed by half a run.
Dodgers at Padres
Pick: Under 8 (even) | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4, San Diego Padres 0
Shohei Ohtani homered on the first pitch of the game and then threw five sharp innings of three-hit ball, striking out four and lowering his ERA to 0.73. Four Dodgers relievers combined for four scoreless frames to complete the shutout. San Diego managed just three hits, and the total stayed comfortably under with Los Angeles adding single runs in the second and fifth before a ninth-inning insurance run. The Dodgers had won the series opener 5-4, and this one was never in doubt after Ohtani’s early blast.
Giants at Diamondbacks
Pick: Under 9 (-122) | Result: Push (0.00u)
Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 6, San Francisco Giants 3
Arizona completed a three-game sweep with a 6-3 win that landed exactly on the total. Ketel Marte homered and doubled, scoring three runs, while Geraldo Perdomo drove in three. Merrill Kelly gave up three runs over six innings for his third straight quality start. The Giants had lost the prior two games by identical 5-3 margins, and this one followed a similar script. The push returned the 2.44 units risked and kept the card neutral on this position.
Reds at Phillies
Pick: Under 10 (-110) | Result: Lost (-2.20u)
Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 9, Philadelphia Phillies 4
Cincinnati’s offense exploded for 13 runs and nine runs in this one, with Sal Stewart going 4-for-5 with a homer and three runs scored. Nathaniel Lowe doubled twice and drove in three, including a pivotal two-run double in the seventh that extended a 5-4 lead. The Reds scored three in the second, added single runs in the fourth and sixth, then put the game away with two in the seventh and two more in the ninth. Philadelphia’s bullpen collapsed, and the total sailed over by three runs. The Reds had won the series opener 4-1, and this one was a missed read from the start.
Orioles at Rays
Pick: Under 8.5 (-114) | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 5, Baltimore Orioles 3
Tampa Bay’s four-run eighth inning pushed the Rays ahead but kept the total comfortably under. Jonathan Aranda tied the game with a two-run double, Richie Palacios followed with a go-ahead single, and Ryan Vilado stole home to cap the rally. Hunter Feduccia homered earlier for Tampa’s first run. The game was scoreless through the first inning, and the Orioles led 3-1 heading into the eighth before the Rays’ late surge. The total stayed under by half a run, and Tampa completed a series sweep after winning the opener 4-1.
Astros at Twins
Pick: Under 8 (-110) | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4, Houston Astros 1
Joe Ryan matched his career high with 12 strikeouts over six innings, retiring his last 16 batters after allowing an RBI single to Christian Vázquez in the second. Ryan Kreidler hit a three-run homer in the fourth, and the Twins cruised to a 4-1 win. Houston managed just four hits, three of them infield singles or bloopers, and never threatened after the second inning. The total stayed comfortably under, and Minnesota’s pitching staff dominated a Houston lineup that had won the series opener 2-1.
Guardians at Tigers
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105) | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3, Detroit Tigers 2 (10 innings)
Angel Martínez hit a tiebreaking triple in the 10th, and José Ramírez followed with an RBI double to give Cleveland a 3-2 lead. The Guardians tied it in the ninth when Daniel Schneemann scored on a groundout. The game was scoreless through six innings before Detroit scored in the seventh and Cleveland answered in the ninth. The total stayed under by 2.5 runs despite extra innings, and Cleveland extended its winning streak after taking the series opener 4-3.
Jays at Yankees
Pick: Under 8 (-110) | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 2, New York Yankees 1
Toronto scored two runs in the seventh and held on for a 2-1 win in a pitcher’s duel. The game was scoreless through six innings, and New York managed just one run in the ninth. Jazz Chisholm Jr. went 3-for-4 for the Yankees, but the offense never broke through. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. drove in a run for Toronto, and the Blue Jays’ bullpen shut down New York late. The total stayed comfortably under, and Toronto bounced back after losing the series opener 5-4.
Sox at Royals
Pick: Kansas City Royals ML (-118) | Result: Lost (-2.36u)
Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4, Kansas City Royals 3
Jarren Duran’s opposite-field two-run homer in the seventh inning rallied Boston to a 4-3 win and completed a series sweep of Kansas City. The Royals led 3-2 heading into the seventh, but Duran’s blast off Steven Cruz put Boston ahead for good. Salvador Perez homered for Kansas City, and Elias Diaz added a two-run shot, but the Royals’ bullpen couldn’t hold the lead. Boston had won the series opener 7-1, and this one was a competitive loss for the Kansas City side after the bullpen faltered late.
Brewers at Cubs
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (even) | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5, Chicago Cubs 0
Kyle Harrison struck out 11 over seven dominant innings, allowing just two hits and one walk as Milwaukee completed a series sweep. David Hamilton had three hits and scored twice, and Jake Bauers extended his hitting streak to 11 games with an RBI single in the third. The Brewers scored three in the second and added single runs in the third and seventh. Chicago managed just two hits and never threatened. Milwaukee had won the series opener 5-2, and this one was a clean moneyline win from start to finish.
Pirates at Cardinals
Pick: Under 8 (-115) | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 7, St. Louis Cardinals 0
Pittsburgh snapped a four-game losing streak with a 7-0 shutout of St. Louis. Spencer Horwitz homered, and Konnor Griffin had four singles while scoring three runs. Carmen Mlodzinski allowed four hits over five innings, and four relievers combined for four scoreless frames. The Pirates led 3-0 through seven innings before adding four insurance runs in the eighth. St. Louis managed just five hits and never mounted a threat. The total stayed under despite the lopsided score, and Pittsburgh bounced back after losing the series opener 9-6.
The +7.0 unit result was earned on the strength of the totals portfolio, which went 6-2-1 and accounted for the bulk of the day’s profit. The two moneyline winners—Texas and Milwaukee—added four units, while the Kansas City loss cost 2.36 units. The four losing totals positions stayed within the two-unit tier, and the push on Arizona-San Francisco kept exposure neutral. The card avoided disaster on the losses and capitalized on clean reads in the pitching-dominant matchups.
Missed Reads: Cincinnati-Philadelphia Under 10
Variance / Competitive Losses: Oakland-Anaheim Under 9, Chicago-Seattle Under 7.5, Kansas City ML
Clean Wins: Texas ML, Los Angeles-San Diego Under 8, Baltimore-Tampa Bay Under 8.5, Houston-Minnesota Under 8, Cleveland-Detroit Under 7.5, Toronto-New York Under 8, Milwaukee ML, Pittsburgh-St. Louis Under 8
