Quick Recap:
• Record: 6-7
• Units: -1.9
• Best Win: Under 8 (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Under 7.5 (-2.4u)
Joe Jensen’s Sunday card finished at 6-7 for -1.9 units — a result that reflects the danger of heavy under-side exposure on a day when offense showed up in the wrong spots. Six wins kept the card from being a full blowout, but the losses landed on the heavier-weighted plays, and that’s where the damage was done. Three of the seven losses came on 2-unit under plays that were busted by multi-run innings, and the unit math didn’t leave much room for error. The wins were real, but the misses were costly.
Athletics at Padres
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
A clean finish to the series finale in San Diego. The Athletics won 5-2, keeping the total well inside the number. Carlos Cortes hit a leadoff homer and finished 2-for-4 with a walk, while Nick Kurtz extended his on-base streak to 47 games — tying Jimmie Foxx for second in Athletics history. The scoring was front-loaded, with Oakland putting up three runs through the first two innings and the game going quiet from there. The Padres managed just two runs across the final three innings, and the under cashed comfortably. Jensen had already won this same under in the prior game of the series, and the pitching environment held up again in the finale. A 2.44u risk returned 2.00u — clean win.
Rangers at Angels
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Reid Detmers was nearly untouchable, retiring 24 of 25 batters and striking out a career-high 14 in eight innings. The Angels won 2-1 on a ninth-inning throwing error by Justin Foscue, and the total finished at three runs — a dominant under result. Jake Burger’s solo homer in the second was the only earned run Detmers allowed. When a starter is inducing 23 swings-and-misses out of 51 swings, the under is in excellent shape from the first pitch. The 2.10u risk returned 2.00u. A previous pass on this series cost a unit the day before; this was a well-timed return to the under side.
Rockies at Diamondbacks
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Lost (-1.00u)
Arizona made quick work of this one. The Diamondbacks scored six runs in the first two innings off Jose Quintana and cruised to a 9-1 final. Corbin Carroll went 4-for-4 with two run-scoring triples and extended his hitting streak to 12 games. Ketel Marte added three RBI. The under at 9 was never in play once the early blowup happened — six runs before the third inning ended the conversation. The Colorado offense offered nothing in return, managing just one run on eight innings. This was a missed read against a red-hot Arizona lineup that had been scoring freely in the series. The 1.00u loss was the smallest on the card, which helped contain the damage.
Pirates at Jays
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Pittsburgh won 4-1 in Toronto, and the total of five runs was a comfortable under result. Esmerlyn Valdez, promoted from Triple-A just two days earlier, hit a two-run homer in the sixth for his first career hit after going 0-for-7 to start his big-league tenure. Oneil Cruz also went deep. The Blue Jays managed just one run, and the game was controlled throughout. Jensen had already cashed this same under in game one of the series, and the pitching environment held again in the finale. The 2.20u risk returned 2.00u — another clean win.
Tigers at Orioles
Pick: Detroit Tigers ML | Result: Lost (-2.00u)
Baltimore won 5-3, with the Orioles doing their damage late. The game was scoreless through three innings before Detroit took a 2-0 lead in the fourth. Baltimore answered with a run in the sixth, and then Colton Cowser delivered a three-run homer in the ninth to close it out. Gunnar Henderson also went deep. Matt Vierling went 3-for-4 for Detroit, but the Tigers couldn’t hold the lead when it mattered. The ninth-inning collapse is the kind of variance that stings on a moneyline play — Detroit was competitive and led for stretches, but the bullpen couldn’t close it. A 2.00u loss on an even-money play that was in position to win entering the late innings.
Guardians at Phillies
Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Cleveland won 3-1 in Philadelphia, with Rhys Hoskins delivering an RBI double in the sixth against his former team and Travis Bazzana adding a homer in the eighth. Hoskins has a notable history of producing at Citizens Bank Park as a visitor, and that continued here. Steven Kwan went 3-for-4. The Phillies managed just one run, with Bryce Harper going 0-for-2 with a walk. Jensen had cashed an under in the prior game of this series, and the Guardians moneyline at -126 was a reasonable play given the pitching matchup and Cleveland’s recent form. The 2.52u risk returned 2.00u — a well-constructed win.
Twins at Sox
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Lost (-2.24u)
Minnesota swept Boston with a 6-5 win at a soggy Fenway Park, and the combined 11 runs blew past the 7.5 total. The game was relatively contained through four innings before Minnesota erupted for three runs in the sixth on Brooks Lee’s tiebreaking two-run single. Boston had tied it at 3 in the fourth on a three-run frame. Willson Contreras homered for the Red Sox, and Masataka Yoshida also went deep. The rain-soaked conditions didn’t suppress the offense the way the market may have anticipated. This was a competitive loss — the game was within range through the middle innings — but the sixth-inning surge pushed it over. The 2.24u loss was one of the heavier hits on the card.
Rays at Yankees
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML | Result: Lost (-1.72u)
This one was decided by a single swing. Ryan Weatherman and Drew Rasmussen both threw seven shutout innings, and the game was scoreless heading into the ninth. Aaron Judge, who had gone 11 straight games without an RBI — a career-worst streak — ended it with a walk-off two-run homer off Kevin Kelly. That’s the kind of variance that is nearly impossible to account for. The Rays had played the Yankees tough all series and the pitching matchup was competitive, but Judge’s ninth-inning blast ended it. The 1.72u risk on the +116 moneyline was a reasonable allocation, and the loss was pure variance — Tampa Bay was in position to win this game deep into the ninth.
Dodgers at Brewers
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Los Angeles won 5-1 behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who allowed one run over seven innings against Milwaukee for the first time this season. Kyle Tucker delivered a tiebreaking two-run triple in the fifth, and Andy Pages followed immediately with a two-run homer to push the lead to four. Six total runs kept this well under the 8.5 number. The Brewers had gone 6-0-1 in their last seven series before this one. Jensen had lost an under in the prior game of this series when the Dodgers put up 11, but the pitching environment corrected sharply with Yamamoto on the mound. The 2.56u risk returned 2.00u — a clean win.
Mariners at Royals
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Lost (-2.24u)
Kansas City won 8-6, and the 14 combined runs made this an easy over. The decisive moment came when Seattle intentionally walked Salvador Perez with the bases loaded — Perez responded with a go-ahead two-out single that opened the floodgates. Seth Lugo allowed three runs in six-plus innings, but the bullpen gave up the rest. Colt Emerson went 4-for-4 with three doubles for Seattle, and Julio Rodriguez homered, but it wasn’t enough. Jensen had already lost a Mariners moneyline in the prior game of this series. The intentional walk to Perez backfired spectacularly and was the turning point that buried the under. A 2.24u loss on a game that got away in the fifth inning.
Astros at Cubs
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Lost (-2.44u)
The biggest loss on the card. Houston completed a three-game sweep of Chicago with an 8-5 win, and the 13 combined runs weren’t close to the 7.5 total. Christian Walker hit a three-run homer to cap a five-run fifth inning for the Astros. Jake Meyers and Nick Allen also went deep. Michael Busch homered for the Cubs, who have now lost 12 of their last 14. The Cubs’ offensive struggles made this look like a reasonable under spot, but Houston’s lineup delivered a five-run explosion in a single inning that ended the bet. Jensen had won a Houston moneyline in the prior game of this series — the Astros’ bats clearly hadn’t cooled off. The 2.44u risk was the largest on the card, and losing it here was the most damaging single result of the day.
Sox at Giants
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Lost (-2.30u)
San Francisco won 8-5, with Rafael Devers hitting a tiebreaking grand slam in the fifth inning — San Francisco’s third grand slam in seven days. With the score tied at 4, Devers hit a first-pitch fastball to the opposite field for his eighth career slam and first as a Giant. Casey Schmitt also homered for the second straight day. The White Sox had scored 10 in the prior game of this series, and the offensive environment in this park clearly wasn’t suppressed. Jensen had lost a White Sox moneyline in the prior game here as well. The grand slam was the decisive blow, and the under at 8 had no chance once that fifth inning unfolded. A 2.30u loss on a game where the total was broken open by one swing.
Nationals at Braves
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Washington won 2-1 in Atlanta, handing the Braves their first home series loss of the season. Foster Griffin was excellent — six scoreless innings, three hits, six strikeouts. Nasim Nuñez singled in a run in the fifth, and Washington added an insurance run in the eighth. The Braves had won eight straight home series before this weekend. The total of three runs was a dominant under result, and Jensen had already cashed an under in the prior game of this series. The 2.30u risk returned 2.00u — a clean, well-structured finish to the card.
Sunday’s card was defined by the under side getting ambushed in multi-run innings. The wins were legitimate — particularly the Detmers gem in Anaheim, the Guardians moneyline in Philly, and the Nationals/Braves under — but the losses came in clusters and at higher unit weights. The Astros/Cubs under (-2.44u) was the single biggest damage play, followed closely by the Twins/Sox (-2.24u) and Mariners/Royals (-2.24u) and Giants/Sox (-2.30u) misses. The Tigers moneyline was a competitive loss that came down to a ninth-inning homer. The Rays moneyline was pure variance — a walk-off Judge blast in a scoreless game. The card wasn’t misaligned in its construction, but the exposure was concentrated on the under side, and when offense erupted in single innings across multiple games, the unit math turned negative quickly.
Missed Reads: Rockies/Diamondbacks Under 9 (early blowup, Arizona offense was clearly live), Astros/Cubs Under 7.5 (Houston’s bats hadn’t cooled, five-run inning), Giants/Sox Under 8 (grand slam environment, prior game scored 13)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Tigers ML (led late, ninth-inning bullpen collapse), Rays ML (walk-off Judge homer in a scoreless game), Twins/Sox Under 7.5 (within range until a sixth-inning surge), Mariners/Royals Under 8.5 (intentional walk to Perez backfired, game broke open late)
Clean Wins: Athletics/Padres Under 8, Rangers/Angels Under 8 (Detmers dominant), Pirates/Jays Under 7.5, Guardians ML, Dodgers/Brewers Under 8.5, Nationals/Braves Under 8.5
