Quick Recap:
• Record: 4-7-1
• Units: -5.3
• Best Win: Tampa Bay Rays ML (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-2.4u)
Joe Jensen’s Sunday card finished at -5.3 Units on a 4-7-1 graded record — a rough close to the weekend that was defined less by volume and more by where the unit exposure landed. Three of the four losses came on plays risking between 1.96u and 2.40u, and two of those — Atlanta and Philadelphia — were the kind of blowout results that leave little room for narrative comfort. The wins were real and meaningful, but they couldn’t absorb the damage from a card that leaned into several higher-confidence spots that simply didn’t deliver.
Cubs at Giants
Pick: Chicago Cubs ML | Lost | Final: Giants 5, Cubs 1
After the Cubs had rolled to a 6-1 win in game one of this series, backing Chicago in the finale looked reasonable — but Logan Webb had other ideas. The Giants’ righty was dominant across eight innings, scattering seven hits without a walk and matching his season high with seven strikeouts. Webb navigated runners in scoring position in three of the first five innings, and once Matt Chapman opened things up with a two-run homer in the fifth, the game was effectively over. The Cubs managed just one run in the eighth. Risking 1.69u to win 2u, this one stings on the pitching matchup — Webb was simply better than the market gave him credit for.
Rays at Angels
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML | Won | Final: Rays 8, Angels 3
A clean win and one of the better stories of the day. Tampa Bay had dropped the first two games of this series — including an 8-0 blowout the day prior — but the Rays responded with a five-run eighth inning to pull away. Junior Caminero’s go-ahead two-run homer off Sam Bachman broke a tie, and Victor Mesa Jr. added a two-run shot later in the frame to put it away. Ben Williamson also went deep early. The +2.00u return on 2.36u risked was a solid swing, and the Rays showed enough resilience to justify the play despite the rough series backdrop.
Marlins at Pirates
Pick: Under 7 | Won | Final: Marlins 4, Pirates 2
A clean under cash in a game that featured two quality starting pitchers doing exactly what was needed. Max Meyer was exceptional — seven innings, one run, nine strikeouts — and Paul Skenes, despite setting a career high with 23 swings and misses and striking out 10, surrendered home runs to Heriberto Hernández and Joe Mack in the second inning and couldn’t get the win. The final of 4-2 was well inside the number. After backing the Marlins ML in game one of this series and losing, the pivot to the total paid off cleanly here, returning +2.00u.
Padres at Orioles
Pick: San Diego Padres ML | Won | Final: Padres 5, Orioles 2
San Diego came in off a 9-3 win in game one, and Jensen went back to the well — and it paid off again. Walker Buehler allowed just one run in five innings, and Rodolfo Durán was the unlikely hero, hitting an RBI double in the second and a two-run homer in the seventh to put the game out of reach. Fernando Tatis Jr. chipped in two RBI. The Padres covered the +108 price cleanly, returning +2.00u on 1.85u risked. Two consecutive wins on San Diego in this series made this a productive matchup for the card.
Yankees at Jays
Pick: New York Yankees ML | Won | Final: Yankees 8, Blue Jays 3
The Yankees came in winners of the prior game in this series, and Jensen backed them again at -126 — a meaningful price to lay. New York trailed 2-1 heading into the ninth before Ben Rice hit a go-ahead homer and José Caballero followed with a three-run blast to blow it open. Paul Goldschmidt went 3-for-5 to set the table. It was New York’s seventh win when scoring the go-ahead run in the ninth inning or later. The win returned +2.00u on 2.52u risked, and while it was a late-game sweat, the edge held.
Diamondbacks at Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML | Lost | Final: Diamondbacks 5, Reds 3
A smaller 1u-target play that still cost 1.04u. The Reds had won game one of this series 2-1, and Jensen went back to Cincinnati at -104 — a near-pick’em price. Arizona took it in the eighth when Gabriel Moreno hit a go-ahead solo homer to give manager Torey Lovullo his 700th career win. Geraldo Perdomo and Tommy Troy also went deep for the D-backs. The Reds had leads and opportunities but couldn’t hold. This falls into the variance column — a competitive game that went the wrong way late.
Braves at Mets
Pick: Atlanta Braves ML | Lost | Final: Mets 8, Braves 1
The biggest damage play of the day at -2.00u. Atlanta entered as the top team in the majors at 46-25 and had won game one of this series 3-1, so Jensen backed the Braves again at even money. It wasn’t close. A.J. Ewing nearly hit for the cycle, the Mets scored four in the first inning against Bryce Elder, and the last-place Mets (32-39) handed Atlanta its second consecutive series loss. The Braves managed just one run. This was a missed read — the premise of backing the class of the majors against a struggling Mets club didn’t hold, and the game was effectively over before it started.
Astros at Royals
Pick: Houston Astros ML | Lost | Final: Royals 4, Astros 0
Houston had outlasted Kansas City 8-7 in game one of this series, and Jensen flipped to the Astros at +102 in the finale. It was a shutout loss. Kansas City scored once in the first and added three more in the third — Maikel García went 3-for-4 with a double and three RBI — and the Astros never threatened. Houston was held without a run across eight innings. The 1.96u risk produced nothing. This qualifies as a missed read; the Astros showed no offensive life and the game was decided early.
Dodgers at Sox
Pick: Under 9.5 | Lost | Final: White Sox 6, Dodgers 4
The total came in at 10 — one run over the number — and it all happened in one inning. The White Sox were held scoreless through five before Colson Montgomery, Sam Antonacci, and Chase Meidrot all homered in a six-run sixth inning that flipped the game entirely. The Dodgers had led 1-0 entering that frame. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman homered for Los Angeles, but the damage was already done. This is a variance loss — the under was on pace to cash through five innings before a single explosive frame busted it. The 2.00u risk was a full write-off.
Phillies at Brewers
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML | Lost | Final: Brewers 4, Phillies 0
The costliest loss of the card at -2.40u. Philadelphia had won game one of this series 9-8, and Jensen backed the Phillies at -120 with Cristopher Sánchez on the mound. It didn’t go well. Jackson Chourio led off the first with a 412-foot homer — his fifth in five games — and Blake Perkins added a three-run shot in the fourth. Kyle Harrison held the Phillies to three hits across six innings. Sánchez allowed all four Milwaukee runs. The Phillies were shut out and Bryce Harper went 0-for-4. This was a missed read — backing a -120 price on a team that got shut out is a tough combination to absorb.
Cardinals at Twins
Pick: Under 9 | Push | Final: Twins 5, Cardinals 4
The total landed exactly on the number for a push. Minnesota rallied from behind — Ryan Kreidler’s RBI double in the eighth completed the comeback — and the Cardinals had scored nine runs in the prior game of this series. The 2.40u risk was returned in full. No harm done, but no gain either.
Rangers at Sox
Pick: Under 9 | Lost | Final: Rangers 6, Red Sox 4
The final came in at 10 — one over the number again. Wyatt Langford homered on the first pitch of his at-bat, Kyle Higashioka added a three-run shot, and Texas scored six runs across the first four innings. Willson Contreras hit two solo homers for Boston to keep it interesting, but the damage was front-loaded. This is the second consecutive under loss on this Rangers-Red Sox matchup — Jensen had also gone under in the prior game. The 2.24u risk was a full loss, and the scoring came early and fast rather than late.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Side plays went 0-1 on Sunday — these are lean/low-conviction recommendations with no units assigned and are tracked separately from the official graded card.
Mariners at Nationals
Pick: Under 10 | Final: Nationals 10, Mariners 1. The lean missed as Washington put up a 10-spot — the total landed exactly on the number from the wrong side, with the Nationals doing all the damage. A clean miss on the side play.
Missed Reads: Atlanta Braves ML, Houston Astros ML, Philadelphia Phillies ML
Variance / Competitive Losses: Chicago Cubs ML, Cincinnati Reds ML, Under 9.5 (Dodgers/White Sox), Under 9 (Rangers/Red Sox)
Clean Wins: Tampa Bay Rays ML, Under 7 (Marlins/Pirates), San Diego Padres ML, New York Yankees ML
Sunday’s graded card produced four clean wins but couldn’t overcome three outright missed reads — Atlanta, Houston, and Philadelphia — that combined to cost roughly 6.04u in losses. The wins were legitimate and well-constructed, but the exposure on the Phillies (-2.40u risked) and the Yankees (+2.00u returned) illustrates how a single bad swing at a higher-confidence price can reshape an entire day. The under plays on Dodgers/White Sox and Rangers/Red Sox both lost by a single run, which is the kind of variance that stings but doesn’t necessarily indicate a structural problem with the read. The bigger concern is the three blowout losses — Braves, Astros, and Phillies — where the handicap was off from the jump and the games weren’t competitive. A 4-7-1 card at -5.3 Units is a tough Sunday, but the damage was concentrated and identifiable.
