New Mexico State vs. UConn Prediction & Analysis

by | Last updated Mar 16, 2022 | cbb

New Mexico State Aggies (27-6 SU, 17-12-0 ATS) vs. Connecticut Huskies (23-9 SU, 13-18-1 ATS)
When: Thursday March 17 2022, 6:50 PM PM (ET)
Where: HSBC Arena

Point Spread: New Mexico State +7/Connecticut -7
Total: 132.5
Money Line: Aggies +230/Connecticut -290
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Key Injuries

New Mexico State
N Mex State has no reported injuries at this time.

Jordan Hawkins: Concussion (QUESTIONABLE)

Recent Form

The New Mexico State Aggies come into this matchup with an overall record of 27-6. On the season, the Aggies have performed well in their 14 non-conference games, posting a record of 12-2. In addition to their non-conference record, New Mexico State went 4-1 at neutral sites. Heading into this matchup, the Aggies are looking to stay hot as they try to add on to their current 3 game win streak. This includes winning the WAC Conference Tournament Title.

The Connecticut Huskies get set to host the Aggies with an overall record of 23-9. On the season, the Huskies have performed well in their 11 non-conference games, posting a record of 9-2. In addition to their strong non-conference record, Connecticut won 4 out of their 6 games at neutral sites. Over their last 5 games, they have played above .500 basketball, holding a record of 3-2

For the season, the New Mexico State Aggies are averaging 71.6 points per game, good for a rank of 140th in the NCAA. Defensively, the Aggies are the 48th ranked scoring defense, allowing 65 points per contest. On the other side, the Connecticut Huskies are the 53rd ranked scoring offense, averaging 75.2 points per game. Like their opponent, the Huskies are also giving up 65 points per game.

Efficiency Outlook

Connecticut enters this matchup vs New Mexico State, having played 27 games as the more efficient offense and defensive team. In these contests, they have posted a record of 20-7. Through 32 games, the Huskies are averaging 75.0 points per 70.0 possessions (NCAA Average), compared to 72.0 for the Huskies. In these situations, Connecticut has an average scoring margin of 12.0 points. On the other side, the Aggies are 1-1 as the inferior team on both ends of the court. In these 2 instances, they hold an average scoring margin of -12.0.

On the season, the Aggies have been a balanced scoring unit, with 31.5% of their scoring coming from made three-pointers. Even though Connecticut is only near the NCAA average in percentage of points from outside, it is still more than the Huskies. So far, just 29.7% of their points are coming from three-point shots. In terms of efficiency, Connecticut has been the more efficient team, connecting at a rate of 35.3%, compared to New Mexico State at 32.8%.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
  • Aggies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Huskies are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 NCAA Tournament games.
  • Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

Joe’s Pick Against the Spread

New Mexico State played really well away from home this season (13-4), but when you look at average power rating of opponents and see NMSU 69.1 and UConn 81, that stat becomes irrelevant. It’s UConn or nothing for me here, as the Aggies will likely be overmatched by a team with much more experience and much better players. Bet your Aggies/Huskies pick and ALL your March Madness bets for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook when you use bonus code PREDICT100 on their registration page!