Alabama vs. LSU Point Spread & Pick

by | Dec 1, 2020 | cfb

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, December 5th, 2020. 8:00PM (EST)

Where: Tiger Stadium Baton Rouge, LA


Point Spread: ALA -28.5/LSU +28.5 (Best Sportsbook Deals)

Over/Under Total: 68.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide cruised to a 42-13 victory in last week’s prestigious Iron Bowl behind breakout star quarterback Mac Jones who added an exclamation point to his strong 2020 campaign by throwing for 300 yards with five touchdowns in the victory. Jones became just the 2nd quarterback in Iron Bowl history, behind Tua Tagovailoa, to throw five touchdown passes in the historic rivalry. This week top-ranked Alabama will travel to Baton Rouge to cap off the regular season in their postponed and rescheduled date with the LSU Tigers at Tiger Stadium.

The Tigers moved to 3-4 SU with a 20-7 loss to no. 5 Texas A&M. I had the Aggies -12 in that game and was fortunate enough to pull out the cover. I expected the Aggies defense to hold strong in a favorable match-up but was slightly surprised to see LSU’s defense compile one of their better performances of the season as they held the Aggies offense to just 267 total yards. The Tigers’ defense has been the focal point on the defending National Champion’s struggles in 2020. Prior to last week’s loss to Texas A&M, the Tigers had given up 46 points on average in the three losses to Mississippi State, Missouri, and Auburn. Therefore if LSU’s defense can build off last week’s momentum, the Tigers will be worthy of betting consideration as huge 28.5 point underdogs at home on Saturday.

LSU WR Terrace Marshall Jr Opts Out

Following last week’s 20-7 loss to the Aggies, the Tigers were surprised to hear that star WR Terrace Marshall Jr has decided to forego the final game of the season. Marshall is projected to be a top 10 pick in next year’s NFL Draft and is trying to eliminate the risk of a late-season injury that could hurt his draft stock. Despite LSU’s offense taking a big step backward in 2020, Marshall has still been one of the conference’s best receivers, with 48 catches for 731 yards and ten touchdowns. More importantly, Marshall’s unexpected opt-out is a big hit for LSU’s offense that has lacked playmakers.

TE Arik Gilbert is 2nd on the team in receiving yards with less than half of Marshall’s season total (339). Additionally, LSU’s receiving corps has combined for just seven total touchdowns when you exclude Marshall’s ten touchdowns. Needless to say, the loss of LSU’s biggest offensive threat cannot be undermined, especially on a weekend where they will be facing one of the top offenses in the country. The biggest challenge towards LSU keeping this game competitive and within the spread will be finding scoring opportunities in a less favorable match-up. If the Aggies could hold the Tigers to just 7 points, Alabama is definitely capable of delivering similar struggles even if the expected game pace will be vastly improved against Alabama.

More Picks: Texas A&M at Auburn ATS Play

Alabama vs. LSU Betting Analysis

I have mentioned numerous times this season that Alabama’s offense does not get the respect they deserve. The Crimson Tide lost an enormous amount of talent last year but have rebounded with one of the nation’s elite scoring groups that is averaging 47.2 points per game (3rd in FBS). With Jones under center and running back Najee Harris, the Crimson Tide can attack by choice, which is sure to frustrate LSU’s shaky defense.

With that said, I still believe the betting spread of 28.5 points is pretty accurate. When I handicap this outcome, I am expecting Alabama’s defense to hold LSU to another respectable number similar to last week’s 42-13 win over Auburn. In comparison, LSU’s does not run the same stylistic scheme of offense, but they are also fairly predictable by nature. I just don’t see LSU QB Myles Brennan doing enough in this scenario, without Marshall, to create a ton of scoring opportunities.

As a result, I am heavily favoring the under 68.5 total. I think LSU’s offense is being given way too much credit in this situation, and the fear is that Alabama’s offense could post a ridiculous scoring number to drive up the potential total. While that is definitely a risk given LSU’s defensive struggles, keep in mind that Nick Saban has been notorious for calling off the dogs with big leads, and we should expect that to be the case with the SEC Championship looming on the horizon.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Under 68.5. Did you know there’s a sportsbook out there where you only lay -105 odds on sides and totals? Imagine how much money you would save if you were betting on games with less risked amount! HUGE savings! Be wise and take 5 minutes to make the switch to BetAnySports! You’ll be SO glad that you did! Click here to start betting at -105 odds!

Best Teasers

3 Team: 6 pt Teasers 6.5 pt Teasers 7 pt Teasers
1.8/1 1.65/1 1.5/1
1.65/1 1.5/1 1.35/1
1.6/1 1.5/1 1.35/1