Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Missouri Tigers Recommended Bet

by | Nov 21, 2022 | cfb

Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5 SU, ATS 6-5-0) vs. Missouri Tigers (5-6 SU, ATS 6-4-0)

Date: Friday, November 25th

Location: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO

TV: CBS

Point Spread: Razorbacks -5/Tigers +5 (Did you know that you could be wagering on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Find this beautiful money saving offer at BetAnySports!)

Money Line: Razorbacks -183/Tigers +148

Over/Under: 56.5

RECENT FORM

This season, the Razorbacks have an overall record of 6-5. This includes a 3-4 mark in SEC action. This season, the Razorbacks have been favored in 5 games while posting an ATS mark of 6-5-0. Their average over-under betting line is 59.32 leading to an over-under record of 8-3-0.

In their last game vs. Ole Miss, the Razorbacks won by a score of 42-27. Heading into the matchup, they were 1.0-point underdogs. The team finished the game by throwing for three touchdown passes. Overall, the Razorbacks had 168 passing yards on a completion percentage of 77.3%. The team ended the game with three rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 335 yards on the ground.

KJ Jefferson heads into the game as the team’s top quarterback, with a current passer rating of 117.33. So far, he has completed 165 passes for a total of 2149 yards. Receiver Matt Landers heads into the game, as the team’s leader in receiving yards, with a total of 701. The Razorbacks have turned to running back Raheim Sanders a total of 209 times for a total of 1379 rushing yards.

When playing against SEC opponents, the Tigers have posted a record of just 2-5. Their overall record currently sits at 5-6. This season, the Tigers have been favored in 4 games while posting an ATS mark of 6-4-0. Their average over-under betting line is 46.86 leading to an over-under record of 3-7-0.

This week, the Tigers will look to pick up another win, as they are coming off a 45-14 win over New Mexico State. With the 31-point victory, Missouri also covered the spread. In the game, Missouri finished with three touchdowns through the air while throwing for 261 yards. The team ended the game with two rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 182 yards on the ground.

Brady Cook heads into the game as the team’s top quarterback, with a current passer rating of 89.8 on a total of 2263 yards through the air. Receiver Dominic Lovett heads into the game, as the team’s leader in receiving yards, with a total of 716. The top option in the run game for the team is Cody Schrader, who has carried the ball 139 times for a total of 603 yards.

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BETTING TRENDS

In their last ten contests, the Razorbacks have a straight-up record of 5-5-0 while covering the spread at a rate of 50.0%. On offense, the team averaged 31.0 points per game while allowing 29.2. Their over-under mark (last 10) is 7-3-0.

In their last five games away from home, the Razorbacks have a straight-up record of 2-3-0 while going 3-2-0 vs. the spread. The team’s offense averaged 33.2 points per game in these contests.

Over their last ten games, the Tigers have covered the spread at a rate of 40.0%. In these games, they posted a straight-up mark of 4-6-0. On average, the team scored 22.5 points per game while allowing 24.9, leading to a negative scoring differential.

Across their five previous home games, Missouri has an ATS mark of 2-3-0. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 3-2-0 while averaging 27.0 points per game.

More Picks: Get our UCLA vs. Cal Week 13 betting predictions for their 11/25/22 game

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Razorbacks are ranked 51st in the NCAA in points scored. In order for the Razorbacks to find success on offense this week, they will have to continue converting third downs at a high rate, as they are currently 20th in college football at 46.0%. However, they will need to be on top of their game vs. one of the NCAA’s top-scoring defenses.

So far, Arkansas has relied heavily on the ground game, as they rank 6th in attempts per game, with an average of 46.91. This heavy usage has led to an average of 234.36 rush yards per game, placing them 7th in the NCAA. This week, the Razorbacks will be facing a Missouri defense that is ranked 47th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 188.0 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Tigers will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 86th in the NCAA in points scored.

Although Missouri has struggled to move the chains on 3rd down throughout the season, they have a chance to take advantage against an Arkansas defense that is allowing an average of 28.73 points per game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.

Although the Tigers have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season, they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs. an Arkansas defense allowing teams to complete passes at a rate of 57.91%.

So far, the Missouri offense averages 152.27 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 38.09 rush attempts per game (53rd). This week, the Tigers will be facing an Arkansas defense that is ranked 145th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 155.67 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

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