Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction ATs 11/20/21

by | Nov 19, 2021 | cfb

Arkansas Razorbacks (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 20, 3:30 p.m.
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.
TV: CBS
Point Spread: ARK +20.5/BAMA -20.5 (Get the best Teaser Odds >>>)
Total: O/U 58

Outlook

The pressure is entirely on Alabama here, as the Crimson Tide have to win both games against Arkansas and Auburn to have hope of sneaking into the playoff despite the earlier loss to Texas A&M. Alabama is a lock to make it if it can best Georgia in the SEC title game, but it would have a real chance as a two-loss team if it can play a competitive match against the Bulldogs in defeat.

But that only matters if the Tide can get past Arkansas, as there’s no way that a three-loss team is making it to the playoff. The Razorbacks have been better than almost anyone expected this season, but they’ve been just scraping by as the schedule has become more difficult. Arkansas did get past LSU, but its past two wins have been by mere field goals. A stronger performance is a must if the Razorbacks hope to stay even close to Alabama.

How the Public is Betting the Arkansas/Alabama Game

The public has sided with Alabama, as 64 percent of tickets have come in on the Tide. The total has increased from 56 to 58, but the spread refuses to jump to 21.

Injury Concerns

Arkansas:
Defensive lineman Dorian Gerald (leg) is out.

Alabama:
Running back Roydell Williams (knee), wide receiver Jojo Earle (undisclosed), running back Camar Wheaton, running back Jase McClellan (knee), linebacker Christopher Allen (foot), and wide receiver Xavier Williams (undisclosed) are out. Linebacker Keanu Koht (foot), offensive lineman Darrian Dalcourt (ankle), and defensive back DeMarcco Hellams (undisclosed) are questionable.

When Arkansas Has the Ball

Don’t look for a ton of passing out of this offense. The Razorbacks know what they do well, and it’s running the football. Arkansas has three capable backs in Trelon Smith, Raheim Sanders, and Dominique Johnson, along with a run-heavy quarterback in KJ Jefferson. The Razorbacks actually average more yardage per game on the ground than through the air, in large part because they always have a fresh back available to bang out yardage.

But that might not be enough in this game because Alabama excels at stopping the run, and Arkansas doesn’t have a good plan B to take advantage of the Tide’s weakness in the secondary. When the Razorbacks ran into Georgia’s nasty defense, they had no way to answer back when the Bulldogs shut down every aspect of the ground game and fell 37-0 in a rout. Alabama’s not quite on that level, but the Tide are still excellent at opposing the run, which could leave Arkansas up a creek without a paddle.

When Alabama Has the Ball

While Arkansas is a ground-and-pound team, Alabama is a passing assault. The Crimson Tide isn’t a pass-happy squad like Mississippi State; they’re just really good at throwing the football and know how to attack a defense’s weaknesses. Bryce Young is incredibly efficient with the football, having thrown just three interceptions all season, and Jameson Williams appears to be the next Alabama receiver who’s destined to receive a hefty paycheck from the NFL as soon as his days in Tuscaloosa are over.

When the Tide do need to run, Brian Robinson is a fine option who keeps the chains moving and helps finish off drives, one of the main reasons why the Tide have averaged almost 45 points per game this season. Alabama is the kind of team that can bury opponents quickly once they get going, and if Arkansas isn’t ready for what it’s about to face, this could get out of hand quick.

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Betting Trends

November tends to be when it all goes wrong for the Razorbacks, as they have failed to cover in their past four games in November, achieving just one push and three defeats. That said, Arkansas is at its best when expectations are low, as it has managed a cover in 12 of its last 16 games as an underdog.

For Alabama, this looks like the kind of game where the Tide comes close to getting the over by themselves but does just enough to make sure that it doesn’t get there. The Tide has gone under in five of their past seven meetings with the Razorbacks, and this looks very possible again.

Weather Report

With sun in the forecast and temperatures in the 60s, this is going to be a very pleasant day for football. Wind shouldn’t play a role, as it will blow at just six miles per hour to the southeast.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

I can’t see Arkansas making a game out of this. Alabama has been at its best for most of the year, and that usually means letting a team hang around for a quarter or so before turning on the jets and leaving the foe in the dust. Arkansas has had a fine season, but I think the Razorbacks are just a bit overmatched here. Give me the Tide. Note: Live betting is becoming a HUGE fan favorite! Most bookies offer it, however, most of their platforms are CRAPPY! They PURPOSELY give you as little info as possible to keep you confused and out of the know. Checkout the live betting platform at Bovada Sportsbook and you’ll see why this is where the pros play! Nice and tidy, all on the same page, shows times and also LOTS of wager options! Click here to check it out!

Doc’s Pac-12 Friday Championship Smash

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