Baylor Bears (9-1 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS)
College Football Week 14
Date and Time: Saturday, November 29, 3:30pm EST
Where: AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
TV: ABC / ESPN2
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BAY -24.5/TTU +24.5
Over/Under Total: 79
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Saturday at 3:30pm, we have a Big 12 showdown when the Baylor Bears go into Arlington and take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Baylos sits as the 7th ranked team in the nation, and could make a strong case as one of the four finalists selected in the very first ever division 1 college football playoff. These Big 12 games are always interesting, especially when it is played between two teams that can score at will.
Baylor comes in as the huge road favorite at -24.5 points and the total points are set at an astounding 79 total. 61% of the action at this time is on Baylor, but many people are scared to take such large favorites, especially on the road in conference. Against the spread in 2014, Baylor is 6-3-1 while Texas Tech is 5-6.
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Texas Tech comes in as a huge road underdog. At 4-7 on the season, it is hard to imagine that they will put up much of a fight, but as the season has winded down, we have seen some top ranked teams be taken to the final moments by teams that they appeared to have outclassed on paper. Texas Tech on offense loves to throw the ball around. Averaging 327 yards per game, the Red Raiders are ranked 6th in all of the FBS in passing yards. With that said, the Red Raiders put up yards, but they do not put up points. Texas Tech ranks just 66th int he nation at 29 points per game, and if that isn’t bad enough, then there is the Red Raiders defense. The Texas Tech scoring defense is one of the worst not only the nation, but in the history of the Big 12. The Red Raiders opponents in 2014 are averaging over 40 points per game, and they have yet to play Baylor who scores 50 points in their sleep. Texas Tech probably has no realistic shot to win this game, but if they get some big plays in the passing game, they may can score enough to keep with within the 24.5.
The Baylor Bears come into this game ranked 7th in the nation and with a realistic shot to play for the national title. The Bears could and should very well be unbeaten right now. The only blemish on their record was a 41-27 loss they suffered at the hands of West Virginia in Morgantown. Scoring right at 50 points a game, the Baylor offense ranks number one in college football. We are used to seeing the Bears putting up huge numbers on offense, but this team has been the most complete Baylor team we have seen in some time. Not only are they scoring at will, but the Baylor defense is also ranked in the top 25 of college football as well. If Baylor wants to cover this huge spread, it will come down mostly to the play of quarterback, Bryce Petty. Petty has already thrown for over 2,600 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2014. If Bryce Petty and the Baylor offense comes out firing and the defense keeps the Red Raiders in check, this could be a long day for Texas Tech, and this game could be a laugher by halftime.
Most of the action right now is on Baylor, but it is not too one sided. A game with such a huge spread is always tough to predict. A team could jump up three or four scores and then next thing you know, backups start seeing some playing time. Not only that, but a single field goal, or botched PAT could alter everything in these type games. I do like Baylor to win big, but I do not want to pull the trigger just yet on them to cover the 24.5. I will say this though, I like a lot of points to be scored in this one. I see a 55-24 type game taking place here.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: PICK OVER THE POSTED TOTAL OF 79 POINTS!