Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats

by | Last updated Sep 27, 2023 | cfb

The Florida Gators and Kentucky Wildcats matchup in a SEC showdown at Kroger Field in Lexington, KY. The over/under for this matchup is currently 45.5 while Kentucky is favored by -2.5.

Florida Gators (3-1 SU, ATS 3-0) vs Kentucky Wildcats (4-0 SU, ATS 3-0)

Date: Saturday, September 30th

Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY


Point Spread: Fla +2.5/Ken -2.5 (Did you know you don’t have to lay -110 odd! Lay -105 at BAS!)

Money Line: UF +121/UK -147

Over/Under: 45.5

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Kentucky currently holds the bragging rights over Florida as in their most recent head to head matchup, they won 26-16. Each team’s offense struggled in the passing game. Kentucky finished with just 202 passing yards, while Florida ended the game with 143. In terms of overall yardage Florida ended with 279 and Kentucky at 272.

Florida Gators Recent Form:

Florida’s 22-7 win over Charlotte moved their record to 3-1 as they head into this week’s matchup with Kentucky.

Despite winning straight-up, Florida did not cover the spread as pre-game 27.5 point favorites. The teams fell short of the over/under line of 48.5 points.

In the win vs. Charlotte, quarterback Graham Mertz concluded with a QB rating of 128.08, connecting on 20 of 23 passes for 259 yards. He also added one touchdown to his performance.

Montrell Johnson Jr. was the primary rusher for Florida vs. Charlotte, with 63 rushing yards, carrying the ball 16 times. Unfortunately, he didn’t manage to score a rushing touchdown in the game. Florida’s most productive receiver in the game was Ricky Pearsall, who finished with 104 on six receptions.

Against Charlotte, the Gators defense was excellent against Charlotte, giving up just 7 points on 211 yards allowed. Charlotte’s passing game finished with 133 yards. Up-front, Florida gave up 2.7 yards per attempt. The Gators defense comes into the game with seven sacks, and ranked 1st in QB hurries. In terms of points allowed, they are giving up 13.5 points per game (28th). When it comes to defending the pass, they are ranked 24th in the NCAA, allowing an average of 162.8 passing yards per game. Additionally, Florida’s run defense comes in allowing 82.2 rushing yards per contest.

Away Injury Report

FullName Position InjuryBodyPart InjuryStatus
Cam Carroll RB Knee Out
Kingsley Eguakun OL Ankle Questionable
Ja’Markis Weston S Upper Body Questionable
Keon Zipperer TE Knee Questionable
Jack Miller III QB Shoulder Questionable
Micah Mazzccua OL Suspension Questionable
Marcus Burke WR Upper Body Questionable
Justus Boone DE Knee Out
Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman WR Lower Body Questionable
Caden Jones OL Foot Out
Eugene Wilson III WR Collarbone Questionable
Tony Livingston TE Upper Body Questionable

Best Parlays

2 Team Parlay 3 Team Parlay 4 Team Parlay
sportsbetting 2.64 to 1 6 to 1 12.3 to 1
Bovada 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1
Mybookie 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1

Kentucky Wildcats Recent Form:

After taking down Vanderbilt by a score of 45-28, Kentucky is still undefeated at 4-0.

Going into the game, Kentucky was favored by 13 and went on to cover the spread. The team’s combined 73 points surpassed the over/under line of 50.5.

Quarterback Devin Leary threw for one touchdown in Kentucky’s win over Vanderbilt. Overall, he had a passer rating of 57.4 while completing 51.7% of his passes for 205 yards.

Ray Davis was Kentucky’s leading rusher vs. Vanderbilt, carrying the ball 17 times for 78 yards and two touchdowns. Kentucky’s most productive receiver in the game was Barion Brown, who finished with 105 on four receptions.

Defensively, Kentucky allowed a total of 328 yards to Vanderbilt. This includes giving up 97 yards allowed on the ground and 231 passing yards. Kentucky’s defense sits at 35th for points allowed, allowing 15.5 points per game. So far, teams have been averaging 215.8 passing yards per game against them (82nd nationally). On the ground, they’re yielding 77.5 rushing yards, ranking them 14th in college football.

Home Injury Report

FullName Position InjuryBodyPart InjuryStatus
Kenneth Horsey OL Leg Out
La’Vell Wright RB Undisclosed Questionable
Ben Christman OL Undisclosed Out
Josh Kattus TE Undisclosed Questionable
Nikolas Hall OL Undisclosed Out
Jamarion Wilcox RB Hamstring Questionable
More Free CFB Picks: Against the Spread Picks Each Week >>>

Betting Trends

  • Looking at Florida’s five most recent road games, they have put together a record vs. the spread of 2-3.
  • At home, Kentucky has gone 2-1 against the spread (last three).
  • Wildcats is 3-2 in their last five games as underdogs.
  • The previous ten time that Florida was favored, they are 2-8 against the spread.

Line Movement:

Regarding the current moneyline odds, Kentucky is currently given a 60% chance of winning, along with a moneyline payout of -147. On the other hand, the Gators’ implied win percentage is 45% with a moneyline of +121. Kentucky is favored on the road by 2.5 points. Thus far, the point spread has seen limited movement, staying consistent with the opening lines. The over/under market has seen changes from its opening at 45, now resting at 45.5.

Free Pick

Even though Kentucky won in the last meeting between the teams, I like Florida in this one. Look for the Gators to head into Lexington and cover the spread as underdogs.

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