Georgia Bulldogs vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick 11/30/19

by | Nov 26, 2019 | cfb

Georgia Bulldogs (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 30th, 2019 - 12:00 ET

Where: Bobby Dodd Stadium - Atlanta, Georgia


Point Spread: UGA -28/ GT +28 (SportBet)
Total: OFF

Power Rankings: Georgia Tech +25

Takeaways From Week 13

The Bulldog Nation once again earned a quality win over a ranked opponent when it hosted the Texas A&M Aggies in Athens. Closing as an 11.5-point favorite, the Dawgs were unable to produce a cover in what was a defensive-oriented 19-13 win over the Aggies. Georgia failing to cover ended a three-game streak of the Bulldogs greening up for takers.

Georgia Tech earned their third win of the season in dramatic fashion when it defeated NC State 28-26 in Atlanta, last Thursday in a stand-alone prime-time conference game. The contest saw the Yellow Jackets close as a 2.5-point underdog despite opening as a one-point favorite. It is worth annotating that Georgia Tech led by as much as 21 before a failed two-point conversion attempt served as the decider between the Wolf Pack and Yellow Jackets.

How the Public is Betting Clean Old-Fashioned Hate

78% of the consensus like the Dawgs here laying the four touchdowns in this rivalry feud. Despite the heavy lean, at the time of writing, we have yet to see the line move in either direction.

More Picks: Alabama at Auburn Pick ATS >>>

The Historicals

These two sides last met in Athens in 2018 to settle Peach State bragging rights, and the Dawgs were the ones to retain those credentials. The Dawgs closed as a 17-point favorite and were able to produce an ATS winner when they ousted the Ramblin’ Wreck 45-21. Georgia has now won and covered in the last two meetings between both sides.

Betting Trends

Home field advantage is an apparent afterthought in this series as the Road Team is 15-3-1 ATS in the previous 19 chapters of Clean Old-Fashioned Hate. The Dawgs, in particular, have enjoyed tremendous success on the road as they have covered in their last nine trips to Atlanta.

Injury Concerns

Heading into this contest, neither Georgia or Georgia Tech have declared any emergent injuries to key starters or personnel.

Why We Like The Dawgs To Cover

The Bulldog rushing attack has produced 200.8 yards per game and has a great match-up this week against the 119th-ranked rushing defense in college football. Georgia Tech gives up 215.3 yards on the ground per contest. The Dawgs will be able to play keep-away, and they should an up-tick in scoring compared to their present average of 31.2 points per game (54th in America). Tech’s defense is giving up an affable 30.6 points per game (88th nationally). However, the Yellow Jackets will have no rebuke. Georgia Tech averages just 17.5 points per match (122nd in the FBS), and they are up against what could very well be the best defense in all of America. Georgia’s defense is stingy, giving up a paltry 10.7 points per game (2nd nationally overall). As a result, this game can get out of hand very quickly.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Georgia -28

It’s very easy to see the Dawgs’ body of work and question as to how they will cover such a high number. However, though Georgia has had some “close calls”, they are not as close as many think. To the naked eye, the Dawgs edged out Auburn and Texas A&M by sole possessions, but the fact of the matter remains that Georgia dominated both teams for the three-quarters of play in both contests. The Dawgs led by 21 against Auburn and were pitching a shutout after three quarters. Against A&M? The Bulldogs also held a double-digit lead heading into the back-stretch. Against Missouri three weeks ago, the Dawgs could have won 34-0 if a procedural penalty didn’t result in a late George Pickens touchdown. The bottom line, the Dawgs have made it known that they struggle to close out games, but this is something that Coach Kirby Smart has made a point of emphasis in this week’s agenda. With a showdown with a likely top-ranked and undefeated LSU looming in the SEC Championship Game next Saturday, the Dawgs have the perfect opportunity to try out their killer instinct against a Georgia Tech football team that will find itself demoralized after a few early scores by the Red and Black. I trust Georgia will close this one out with authority and cover this number with ease.