Kansas Jayhawks (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Thursday, September 29th, 8:30pm EST
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, TX
TV: Fox Sports 1
by Bob, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KAN +28 / TT -28
Over/Under Total: OFF
This Thursday night in AT&T Stadium, we have a Big 12 game between the Kansas Jayhawks and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Yeah, real exciting one huh? However, it is Thursday night football so us degenerates will lay a bet and watch no matter who lines it up. Texas Tech comes in at 2-1 overall in 2016 and Kansas has a record of 1-2.
The series between these two programs started back in 1965 and Texas Tech has owned this series. The Red Raiders have been victorious in 16 of the 17 games played. Not only that, but they are currently on a nine game winning streak going back to 2004. The Jayhawks only win was back in 2001 when they upset a Mike Leach led Red Raiders team 34-31.
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Texas Tech comes into this game as the 28 point home favorite and based on the series history, we can see why. The total points in this game has yet to be set so we will have to wait til the book give us a line on that to decide which way to go. Of course Texas Tech has owned the head to head series here, but in the last four meetings, these teams are 2-2 when it comes to covering the point spread. At this time, 76% of the action is on Texas Tech to cover and this has actually caused some of the lines to already shift to 29 and 29.5 points. The book I play through still has it at 28 so that is the line we will use for this prediction.
Texas Tech on paper should beat Kansas downshould. The Red Raiders offense is deadly, very. They are ranked 2nd in the nation in points scored at 61 per game. The passing offense is ranked number one in all of FBS. Texas Tech, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes II, averages almost 548 yards a game in the air. You may ask, if the offense is that good, how can Kansas even have a prayer not just to win this game but to even cover the spread? Well, Texas Tech focuses on offensejust offense. The Red Raiders on defense are one of the worst in the FBS. Texas Tech has allowed an average of 43.3 points against them so far and that ranks them as the 124th worst defense in America. Not good. If this team just had a decent defense, they could be scaryfor everyone they step on the field with.
Kansas comes in as a huge road dog, of course. They are 1-2 with their only win and cover coming against the University Of Rhode Island. Not impressive. Kansas is not terribly awful in any offensive or defensive category, they just are not good. The passing offense ranks in the top 50 in FBS, but the rushing game is brutal. Running for only a tad over 100 yards a game, the Jayhawks are ranked 120th in FBS. This could be the problem for Kansas. If they cannot keep drives alive and if they cannot keep the Texas Tech offense off the field, this thing could get ugly in a bad way. Kansas must take advantage of the sub par Texas Tech defense and score some points of their own if they have any desire to cover or make this a competitive game.
These types of games always scare me. I hate these huge point spreads especially when one team is so much better than the other. Texas Tech knows they are not going to lose this game, they just do. Could that mean they potentially take their foot off the gas early? We already know their defense is bad regardless, and I hate when a team gets some back door cover in a game that should have been put away minutes before. After searching some recent trends of these teams though, it appears that unfortunately Texas Tech is the play here. They have covered their last five games on turf. They have also covered four of their last five Thursday night games. Kansas on the other hand has gone 2-8 against the spread against teams with a winning record in their last ten. The Jayhawks also have only covered ONCE on turf in their last nine games played. Do those trends really matter? Maybe not, but we have to base this pick off something. I think Texas Tech comes out and blasts Kansas. If Kansas had any sort of offense, I may would take the road dog, but something tells me this game is going to end something like 55-20 or something like that.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS -28 BUT DO NOT BET THE HOUSE ON IT. PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK!
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