Miami Hurricanes vs. Boston College Eagles Pick
Miami Hurricanes (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Boston College Eagles (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 9
Date/Time: Friday October 26th, 2018. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Alumni Stadium Chestnut Hill, M.A
By Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: MIA -3.5/BC +3.5 (Reduced Juice books at -105)
The ACC will maintain the primetime spotlight this Friday when the Miami Hurricanes go into Chestnut Hill for a showdown with the Boston College Eagles. Just two weeks ago, the Hurricanes were ranked 16th and still the favorite to take down the ACC Coastal Division until an untimely upset at the hands of Virginia derailed the Canes’ hope for a big season. Now Miami is looking for a rebound opportunity and to keep their hopes alive towards the ACC Championship. However, their matchup this week is daunting against a Boston College team that repeatedly seems to play above their talent level and who will be eyeing a big victory on the Friday night stage.
Bet on the Boston College offense
If you have paid attention to Miami’s offense this year, then you know it has been a roller coaster ride or often times a dumpster fire. While the Canes have not been able to find any type of stability on offense, Boston College’s top talents are at the skill positions. Running back AJ Dillon continues to be one of the best backs in the ACC. Dillon was sidelined for two straight games with an ankle injury which has hurt his overall stats on the year (652yds, 6 TDs). However, the Eagles star running back is now back to full health after a timely bye last week.
The Eagles know they will feed Dillon the football often this week against a solid Miami defense. With that being said, I am full confident with Miami expecting a heavy dose of Dillon because he will still produce. Because of the relentless ground attack, there will be opportunities in the passing game for Boston College and they will need quarterback Anthony Brown to have a solid game. Fortunately in the last few weeks, Brown has been playing pretty well. He is not a quarterback that is going to post big numbers but if he can protect the football; then all this offense wants is to hit a few plays from time to time. So far this year, that is exactly what has happened. Aside from the disastrous Purdue game (4 INTs), Brown has not thrown any other picks this year and ball security will be extremely important on Friday in what will likely be a lower scoring game. However, this Boston College offense knows their capabilities. Boston College will continue to run the ball and look for Brown to help in opportunistic situations.
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Hurricanes quarterback controversy continues
While Boston College’s offense knows their formula or game plan, Miami is still searching primarily because of the quarterback issues that have continued throughout the season. To bring everyone up to speed, Malik Rosier began the season as the starter. He was then benched for freshman N’Kosi Perry who sparked the offense by completing his first 10 passes against Florida International. At the time, Perry looked like the savior for the offense. In the last two games, he has completed less than 45% of his attempts and tossed two picks in the loss to Virginia. Now Coach Mark Richt will revert back to the senior Rosier to lead the Canes this Friday against Boston College as the offense looks to avoid any repeat performances.
Still the quarterback questions or concerns have not been answered. If Rosier struggles, how long will it take before Perry is back in? What does the offense consider successful since both quarterbacks are completing just above 50% of their passes? I am not sure of anybody knows the answers to those questions. What I do know is that this offense is not extremely confident in either option hence their tendency to run the football heavily in recent outings. The Canes have a few solid rushers in Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas. The problem with that glimmer of hope is that Boston College’s defense is one of the better groups in the ACC against the run and they will welcome the physical challenge.
Miami vs. Boston College Betting Trends
The majority of the betting trends favor the Eagles this week. Miami continues to be one of the worst teams in college football for bettors going back to the start of 2016. The Hurricanes are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Eagles on the other hand have been one of the best teams for bettors since 2016 with a streak of 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games. The Eagles have also been an outstanding team for bettors in conference play going 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 ACC contests. The only trend that favors Miami is the fact the Canes have held the upper hand against Boston College going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Eagles. For trends around the total, both teams have found the “under” mark in 4 of their last 5 games.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Boston College +3.5