Michigan vs. Penn State Prediction 11/13/21

by | Nov 10, 2021 | cfb

Michigan Wolverines (8-1 SU, 7-2-0 ATS) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3 SU, 6-3-0 ATS)

When: Saturday, Nov. 13th, 2021, 12:00 pm (ET)

Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

TV: ABC

Point Spread: MICH +1/PSU -1 (Opened at -1 at Intertops - Go through our special link on the review page, deposit $25 and use bonus code ROOKIE200 and they’ll credit you with an extra fifty bucks!)

Total: O/U 48.5 (Opened at 49)

Money Line: MICH +100/PSU -120

Power Rating:PSU -2

Key Injuries

Michigan Wolverines:RB Donovan Edwards *Questionable* (Undisclosed), RB Blake Corum *Probable* (Lower Body), WR Andrel Anthony *Questionable* (Undisclosed)

Penn State Nittany Lions: QB Ta’Quan Roberson *Questionable* (Undisclosed), RB Devyn Ford *Questionable* (Undisclosed), DT PJ Mustipher *Out* (Knee)

Recent Form

The Michigan Wolverines currently sit 8-1 on the season. Despite just one loss to Michigan State, the Wolverines sit 3rd in the Big 10 East behind the Spartans and Buckeyes. The most notable win of the year is Michigan’s Week 5 win over the Badgers on the road, putting up 38 points on the #1 ranked offense in college football. Michigan controls their destiny to the Big 10 championship as they face Ohio State to end the year. The Michigan backfield duo of Haskins and Corum has combined for over 1,600 yards already on the year. The Wolverines, through nine games, average 451.4 YPG offensively and have the sixth-best defense giving up just 298.1 YPG.

The Penn State Nittany Lions started the year 5-0 before going on a three-game skid. Last week they got back in the win column and now sit with a 6-3 record. Much like Michigan, Penn State’s most notable win on the year came over the Badgers in their season opener. Penn State is 2-2 on the year vs. ranked opponents and suffered a major upset to Illinois three weeks ago. The Nittany Lions offense averages 384.7 YPG offensively, while their defense gives up 350.8 YPG.

Time of Possession

The Michigan Wolverines have been winning games all year, lulling opposing defenses to sleep. The Wolverines, thanks to their run game, find themselves in the upper echelon of college football for time of possession. Michigan holds the ball just shy of 33 minutes a game. Even if other teams put points on the board, they are stuck waiting extended periods of time to get the ball back due to the Michigan offense bleeding the clock. Penn State, on the other hand, averages a negative in time of possession with 28 minutes of control in their nine games. Another stat worth mentioning is the third-down conversion rates of these teams. Michigan as a defense allows third-down conversions just 32% of the time, and Penn State only converts 39% of the time offensively. The Michigan defense is going to get the Nittany Lions offense off the field and give their offense a prime opportunity to play keep away with the run game.

Penn State Shaky Against the Run

Michigan has gashed defenses all season on the way to their 8-1 record. The Wolverines offense ranks seventh-best in the country on the ground, averaging 234.1 YPG and 5.29 yards per carry. Early in the week, there was concern with RB Blake Corum dealing with an injury, but he was elevated from “questionable” to “probable” for Saturday’s contest. The Penn State defense isn’t exactly a pushover when it comes to the run, but they give up their fair share and will be tested this weekend. Penn State gives up 137.2 YPG rushing and just over 3.5 yards a carry. These aren’t back-breaking numbers, as the only team, they faced with an admirable run game so far this year was the Wisconsin Badgers in their first game of the year. As this game gets past the halfway point, we may see the fatigue set in for the Penn State defense, and the Michigan run game start to add a few extra yards to their runs.

Penn State Struggles in the Spotlight

Though the Nittany Lions have come up with some upsets over high-ranked teams through the years, history shows that they aren’t made for big games on a consistent basis. Over the past 27 years, the Nittany Lions have been an ugly 3-21 against Top 5 ranked teams. Tuesday’s rankings put Michigan at #6, so Saturday’s game won’t count towards the previous stat. The line for this game has these two teams about even, and as I look at this game, home-field advantage for the Nittany Lions may be the biggest factor in their favor. Michigan has been struggling under Jim Harbaugh for some time now, and I can’t imagine they will let their season slip away against this Penn State team.

More Picks: Purdue at Ohio State Pick ATS

The Historicals

Penn State vs. Michigan is a yearly occurrence, so these teams have become very familiar with one another over the years. Penn State won the last two matchups, including one in Ann Arbor, which was their first in “The Big House” in 11 years.

How the Public is Betting the Wolverines vs. Nittany Lions

63% are betting the Michigan Wolverines to cover the spread.

62% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 48.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Wolverines are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. Penn State.
  • The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games.
  • The Nittany Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games as a favorite.
  • The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the previous seven games between the Wolverines and Nittany Lions.
  • Over is 5-1 in the last six games between the Wolverines and Nittany Lions.
  • Over is 6-0 in the previous six games in Penn State.
  • Over is 5-0 in Penn State’s last five home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Collin’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Early in the week, as the line for this game opened, we saw a -1 edge in favor of the home Penn State Nittany Lions. Since then, it shifted two points the other way, and we now see Michigan as the road favorite. As I dug into these teams, it was hard to deny the trends of a Michigan team on the rise and a Penn State team struggling after a solid start. I like Michigan on the road this week to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. Take the Michigan Wolverines to cover the -1-point spread. Bet your Week 11 NCAA football predictions FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook! (See our Betnow Review).

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