Purdue at Ohio State Prediction ATS 11/13/21

by | Nov 10, 2021 | cfb

Purdue Boilermakers (6-3 SU, 5-4-0 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, Nov. 13th, 2021, 3:30 pm (ET)

Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

TV: ABC

Point Spread: PUR +20/OSU -20 (Opened at -20 at Bookmaker - Takes massive bets up to 50K and more! The second oldest and trusted bookie on the web!)

Total: O/U 62 (Opened at 61)

Money Line: PUR +670/OSU - 1300

Power Rating: OSU -22

Key Injuries

Purdue Boilermakers: RB Ja’Quez Cross *Questionable* (Personal), K Chris Van Eekeren *Questionable* (Ankle), CB Cory Trice *Out* (Knee), WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen *Out* (Undisclosed), WR Mershawn Rice *Out* (Foot), RB Sampson James *Out* (Eligibility), OL DJ Washington *Out* (Toe), TE Jack Cravaack *Out* (Knee)

Ohio State Buckeyes: X

Recent Form

The Purdue Boilermakers head to Ohio State with a 6-3 record. Purdue made history with their 40-29 upset over #3 Michigan State last week with their 17th unranked win over a Top 5 team in the AP Poll era. To put into perspective, the next closest team has 11. Purdue was briefly in the Top 25 rankings after their upset over Iowa, but the following week lost to the visiting Wisconsin Badgers. Through nine games, the Boilermakers offense sits outside the Top 50 offensively with 409.6 YPG. Purdue’s defense has particularly come up big in their upsets with 14 turnovers and giving up 329.8 YPG.

The Ohio State Buckeyes enter the week with an 8-1 record. Ohio State’s only blemish came against Oregon in their second game of the season. Following their loss, the Ohio State offense has torched defenses, with their last two games of nine-point wins being their closest margins. The Buckeyes are currently the second-best offense in college football, averaging 542.2 YPG and almost 8 yards per play. On defense, the Buckeyes have allowed 354.8 YPG over their last six games, average giving up just 14.1 points per game.

Upset Alert

When playing the Purdue Boilermakers as a high-ranked team, you can’t help but be on notice for their ability to deliver upsets. Purdue is on the road this week as a 20-point underdog, but you can’t help but wonder if they can steal the win outright. The argument last week could be made that Purdue’s home field advantage could have played a factor, but rewinding a few weeks to their upset over Iowa, they were on the road. Although any upset over a Top 5 team is difficult in itself, this week may prove the toughest test against the nation’s #2 ranked offense in Ohio State. Following this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, the Boilermakers are back in the Top 25 at #19. Should Purdue get a win this week, it wouldn’t add to their historic unranked record, but nonetheless, a third win over a Top 5 team in one season would be remarkable.

Slowing Down the Buckeyes

As Purdue heads to a hostile Buckeyes crowd, a factor that has played in large part in their success this year is their defense. The Boilermakers defense will be tested this weekend against one of the best offenses in the nation. One of these sides is going to have to give in as the Purdue defense allows over 200 yards less than the Buckeyes offense has averaged. A trend to watch in this game is the efficiency of the Buckeyes on third down and if the Boilermakers can get off the field. Ohio State is third-best in the nation on third down, converting 53% of the time. If Purdue can keep Ohio State under 50% on third down and take away scoring opportunities like they have all season, we will see them keep this game closer than the line is giving them.

In the Red Zone

Red zone scoring is often the difference-maker in a game with a large spread when settling for field goals instead of touchdowns. If you’re the Ohio State Buckeyes, you’ve seen little to no resistance in the red zone scoring on 94% of their trips. One thing to note, though, despite their success to score, is that in 36 scoring drives inside the 25, they’ve scored just 25 touchdowns, settling for field goals 11 times this season. The efficiency is still there but leaving four points off the board multiple times a game can add up. The Boilermakers have made red zone stops a part of their identity this year and are one of the best defenses with their back against the wall this year. Purdue has allowed just 13 touchdowns on 29 red zone appearances by opposing offenses. The Ohio State offense is going to get their red-hot offense up and down the field this game, but if Purdue can force a few drives to end in field goals or even come up empty, it is going to be tough for the Buckeyes to create space on the scoreboard.

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The Historicals

Saturday’s matchup will be just the third time these teams have met in eight years. The last two games were at Purdue, and the last game in 2018 was a lopsided affair in favor of the Boilermakers 49-20.

How the Public is Betting the Purdue Boilermakers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

67% are betting the Boilermakers against the spread.

57% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 62.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Purdue Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • The Purdue Boilermakers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.
  • The Ohio State Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.
  • The Ohio State Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their previous six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • The Purdue Boilermakers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings vs. Ohio State.
  • The Under is 4-0 in Purdue’s last four road games.
  • The Under is 8-2 in Purdue’s last ten games.
  • The Under is 8-3 in these teams last 11 matchups.

Collin’s Pick Against the Spread

Saturday’s game features a huge Big 10 matchup where the Buckeyes will look to keep their bid for the College Football Playoff alive. This game won’t be as easy as the 20-point spread shows for the home team, as the visiting Boilermakers have already been a thorn in two teams’ sides this year with playoff implications. Ohio State may have the edge at home with their offense, but not by 20. Take the Purdue Boilermakers against the +20-point spread. Bet your Week 11 college football picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook!