Navy Midshipmen vs. Southern Methodist Betting Predictions 10/14/22
When: Friday, October 14, 7:30 p.m.
Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: NAVY +12.5/SMU -12.5 (STOP wasting your hard earned money overpaying for -110 odds! Start laying only -105 TODAY at BetAnySports! Who doesn’t like to save money?)
Total: O/U 56.5
Outlook
If you’ve been betting on Southern Methodist this season, you’ve been severely disappointed by what’s happened with your bankroll. The Mustangs have the ability to put up huge numbers, but too often, they get in their own way and cost themselves when it matters most. They’ve now failed to cover in four straight games, which happened because they had Maryland on the hook and couldn’t close the deal, and they couldn’t get the job done against TCU in a rivalry game.
Now they’ve got a disciplined Navy team that’s been hanging tough over the past three weeks and has looked very good in winning two of the three games outright. The Midshipmen were expected to lose to both East Carolina and Tulsa and ended up beating both of them while they stayed within just three points of Air Force. And the books aren’t buying them at all, as SMU is giving double digits to a team that’s both playing very well right now and might be the ideal kind of team to give the Mustangs problems. Navy runs the football very well, and SMU has a lot of issues with stopping teams on the ground. If the Mustangs shoot themselves in the foot again, the door is open for Navy to pull out its third straight in-conference surprise.
How the Public is Betting the Navy/SMU Game
The number is large, and the public is riding with the Mustangs in this situation. SMU has gotten 57% of the tickets so far, even though they’ve yet to cover a game since the first week of the season. The total has stayed unchanged at 56.5.
Injury Concerns
Navy:
Navy reports no injuries.
SMU:
Wide receiver Jordan Kerley (undisclosed) and wide receiver Jake Bailey (undisclosed) are questionable.
When Navy Has the Ball
There is no guesswork with Navy. The Midshipmen are going to run the ball a lot, with the only question being who is actually going to get the ball when they hand it off. Navy is a triple-option team, of course, and the Mids used their powerful ground game to hammer Tulsa last week, as Daba Fofana and Vincent Terrell each got more than 15 carries and each averaged more than five yards per carry in piling up 53 points in the victory.
More of the same could be coming here. Because of the Navy’s odd geographic placement in the American’s West Division when the league had 12 teams, these teams faced each other every year since the Navy joined the conference in 2015, and the Mustangs have never held Navy to less than 24 points. In 2015 and 2016, when the Mids were at their best, they averaged 65 points against the SMU defense. One thing SMU hasn’t been able to do this year is stop teams on the ground, as the Mustangs give up 176 yards per game on the ground. That ranks 106th in the nation, and it’s not as if opponents UCF and Maryland are well-known for running the ball. Navy is, and if SMU’s defense doesn’t improve in a hurry, the Mids could keep SMU’s powerful offense on the sidelines.
When SMU Has the Ball
The Mustangs are explosive, but there’s always a concern as to whether the explosion will blow up the opponent or themselves. Tanner Mordecai has thrown all over SMU’s five opponents this season to the tune of 1,680 yards and has 12 touchdowns on the season. The problem is that he also has six interceptions, which underscores the roller coaster that is the SMU offense. At least twice a game, SMU is likely to stop itself with an ill-timed mistake, and it’s usually that play that decides whether the opposition is going to cover the spread or even win the game.
In this game, that likely means a lot of points are coming because the Navy does not defend the pass well at all. The Mids are fantastic against the run, ranking ninth in the nation at stopping teams on the ground, but they’re 103rd against the pass. SMU has the talent to really put up some big numbers, but the Mustangs have shown a tendency to stop themselves from getting things done all year long. Against a team, as disciplined as the Navy, those kinds of mistakes could be backbreakers.More Picks: Get Dan’s Penn State at Michigan total and spread plays
Betting Trends
The Mids have been very comfortable in this series, going 7-2 ATS against SMU and 6-3 SU in their past nine meetings with the Mustangs. SMU has won the past two meetings in Dallas, but one of those came by just a point, and the other was a shootout that saw 88 points put on the board.
The over has been a fairly strong play in this series as well, as the over has cashed in five of the past seven matchups. However, the under is 4-1 in SMU’s past five games and 5-1 the past six times that the Mids have gone on the road.
Weather Report
Football weather is coming to most of the country as we hit the middle of October. That is not the case in Dallas, as the temperature will still be a rather warm 70 degrees when the teams take the field after a 90-degree day. Winds will blow at seven miles per hour to the south.
Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread
Navy is playing very well at the moment, and SMU is really not playing well at all. There’s also the fact that Navy is a ground-heavy team, while SMU doesn’t defend the run very well and has never done all that well in this matchup.
And yet, the Midshipmen are getting 12.5 points in this matchup, which really doesn’t make any sense at all. I’ll go ahead and take Navy and the points in a game that the Mids might find a way to win outright. Bet your Week 7 college football predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you enter bonus code PREDICTEM on the Special Offers page after making your first deposit at the web’s oldest and most trusted bookie —> Everygame Sportsbook!
