Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oklahoma Sooners Pick
Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 21, 7:30 p.m.
Where: Owen Field, Norman, Okla.
Point Spread: OKST +7/OKLA -7 (List of the Best Online Sportsbooks)
Total: O/U 59
Left for dead after losses to Kansas State and Iowa State, Oklahoma suddenly has a path back to the Big 12 title game, and it goes through its in-state rival in the Bedlam Game. All the Sooners need is a win over Oklahoma State and an Iowa State victory over Kansas State, and they would suddenly be on track to earn their way into a rematch with Iowa State for the Big 12 crown. It’s something they’ve been quite accustomed to, as they’ve won 15 of their past 17 meetings with the Cowboys.
On the Oklahoma State side of the ledger, the Cowboys have entered the most challenging part of their schedule and now have to keep winning to get a shot at claiming the Big 12 crown. Oklahoma State doesn’t really have any hope of reaching the College Football Playoff, but if the Cowboys can run the table, they’ll be one of the two representatives in Arlington to play for the title. Plus, if they can find a way to beat the Sooners, they’ll knock Oklahoma out of the race completely, as the Sooners would have three defeats in the league and no tiebreakers against the three teams ahead of them in the pursuit. But doing that would require the Cowboys to do something they’ve only done once in the past 15 years: win at Owen Field.
How the Public is Betting the Oklahoma State/Oklahoma Game
Even though Oklahoma has won four straight games this season and five straight in this rivalry, the money is riding with the Cowboys in this one. Even though 61 percent of tickets have come in on the Sooners, sharp money has pushed the line down from -9.5 to the critical number of -7. The total has gone down a half-point to 59 from 59.5.
Defensive end Tyren Irby (leg), safety Kolby Harvell-Peel (head), running back LD Brown (undisclosed), running back Chuba Hubbard (leg), and offensive lineman Jake Springfield (undisclosed) are all questionable.
Running back Hassan Hall is probable with an undisclosed issue. Running back, Javian Hawkins opted out of the season for personal reasons. Defensive lineman Yaya Diaby (undisclosed), defensive lineman Tabarious Peterson (illness), punter Ryan Harwell (illness), defensive lineman Micah Bland (undisclosed), defensive back Chandler Jones (undisclosed), defensive lineman Derek Dorsey (undisclosed), and wide receiver Chatarius Atwell (undisclosed) are all questionable.
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When Oklahoma State Has the Ball
If Chuba Hubbard is able to play, Oklahoma State’s chances of pulling off a victory drastically increase. That is, if Hubbard can get back to his old self, which hasn’t been seen since the win over Iowa State. Texas and Kansas State were both able to slow down the Cowboys’ running back, and Hubbard actually gave way to LD Brown in the win over the Wildcats. But with Brown also questionable, it’s a real concern as to who will be leading the ground game for the Cowboys.
The ground game is critical, because this is not the same Oklahoma State team that puts up tons of points and buries its opponents in quick scores. The Cowboys are only averaging 28 points a game and haven’t broken 27 points against anyone other than Texas and Kansas. Keeping this game under is exactly where Oklahoma State wants it to be, as Spencer Sanders isn’t the type of quarterback who’s going to win this game for his team. Plus, the Cowboys really only have one pass-catching threat in Tylan Wallace. If Oklahoma focuses its energy on stopping him — which it can do if Hubbard and/or Brown can’t play — Oklahoma State will be hard-pressed to come up with points.
When Oklahoma Has the Ball
Oklahoma’s been the home for quarterback transfers for a reason: Lincoln Riley’s team knows how to score and score in a hurry. The Sooners have put up points like nobody’s business during their winning streak; 33 is actually the lowest number Oklahoma’s scored in its past four contests. The Sooners average over 46 points a game, and they do it in large part because Spencer Rattler has been virtually unstoppable this year. It’s tough to stop anyone who’s got weapons like Marvin Mims and Austin Stogner at his disposal, and when you consider that Oklahoma’s No. 5 receiver (Drake Stoops) has two touchdowns to his name, it’s easy to see why the Sooners have been so dominant on offense.
Oklahoma State’s one real chance is to get some pressure on Rattler and force him into mistakes. The Sooners don’t really have a reliable running game to speak of, and Rattler has been known to turn the ball over under pressure, so if the Cowboys can force him to play in a way he’s not accustomed to doing, the opportunity is there. Rattler did give the game away against Kansas State, and Oklahoma State has a better defense than the Wildcats, so there’s definitely a chance there. But if Rattler gets comfortable, this will not end well.
Historically, Bedlam means points. Last year’s 50-point total was the lowest for the rivalry game since 2009, when Oklahoma managed to shut out Oklahoma State in a 27-0 game. Most games are much closer to 2018 or 2016, which saw the Sooners and Cowboys combine to score 95 and 114 points, respectively. Outside of that 2009 game, which was the ultimate outlier in the rivalry, Oklahoma itself hasn’t scored less than 35 points in Bedlam in Norman since 2001, which was one of the Sooners’ rare home losses in this rivalry. When the Sooners win, they usually score a lot of points while doing it. In their past eight home victories in the rivalry, Oklahoma has topped 38 points seven times.
Of course, scoring points is just something that Oklahoma does, no matter who its opponent is. The Sooners have hit the over five times in seven games this year, including the past two weeks, where they’ve scored 62 points each time. On the other hand, Oklahoma State has been winning more with defense than ever before this year. The Cowboys have played to the under on four occasions this season, and they’ve done it in eight of their past ten games dating back to last season.
When it comes to the spread, Bedlam tends to favor the visitor. The road team has managed a cover in seven of the past eight Bedlam Games.
It’s going to be a warm day in Norman, with temperatures hitting 72 degrees and winds blowing south at 15 miles per hour.
Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread
As badly as Oklahoma State needs this game, Oklahoma remains the one hurdle that Mike Gundy cannot overcome unless he has a truly great team. The fact that Gundy has managed to stay popular at Oklahoma State despite a 2-14 record against Oklahoma speaks to how well he’s done with the program as a whole, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Sooners have owned this series and have an offense that Oklahoma State doesn’t appear capable of stopping.
Seven points just isn’t much of a deficit when it’s Bedlam. Give me Oklahoma and the over here. On an another note, create “Betlam” for yourself, by taking advantage of a HUGE 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook! It’s not a cheesy match play! It’s a REAL CASH bonus!