Ole Miss at LSU Week 8 Betting Analysis & Predictions

by | Oct 19, 2022 | cfb

Ole Miss Rebels (7-0 SU, ATS 3-4-0) vs LSU Tigers (5-2 SU, ATS 3-3-0)

Date: Saturday, October 22nd

Location: Tiger Stadium (LA), Baton Rouge, LA

TV: CBS

Point Spread: Rebels -1.5/Tigers +1.5 (BAS – Bet on games at -105 instead of -110! You’ll save a TON of money and be so glad you made the switch!)

Money Line: Rebels -115/Tigers +-107

Over/Under: 64.5

RECENT FORM

This year, Rebels have an overall record of 7-0. In addition, they have also played well in
the SEC, going 3-0. This season, the Rebels have an ATS mark of 3-4-0 while being favored in
every game. Their over-under record sits at 3-4-0 on an average point total betting line of
59.29.

In their most recent game, the Rebels defeated Auburn by a score of 48-34. But, they were
unable to grab the ATS win, as their 14 was not enough to cover the spread. The team finished the
game by throwing for 3 touchdown passes. Overall, the Rebels had 130 passing yards on a
completion percentage of 47.4%. The team ended the game with 3 rushing touchdowns, along with a
total of 448 yards on the ground.

Heading into the matchup, Jaxson Dart has an overall passer rating of 99.0 on a total of 1488
yards. Thus far, he has thrown for 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Wide receiver Jonathan
Mingo has come up with the most production for the team, with a total of 507 receiving yards. The
Rebels have turned to running back Quinshon Judkins a total of 121 times for a total of 720
rushing yards.

The Tigers come into the game with an overall record of 5-2. This strong play includes going
3-1 in SEC action. This season, the Tigers have been favored in 3 game while posting an ATS mark
of 3-3-0. Their average over-under betting line is 44.07 leading to an over-under record of
1-5-0.

In their previous game, the Tigers picked up a 45-35 home win over Florida. This was an
impressive victory as they were also the 1.5 point underdogs. In the game, LSU finished with 3
touchdowns through the air, while throwing for 349 yards. The team ended the game with 3 rushing
touchdowns, along with a total of 179 yards on the ground.

Jayden Daniels heads into the game as the team’s top quarterback, with a current passer rating
of 105.03 on a total of 1564 yards through the air. Malik Nabers leads the team’s receiving corps
with 32 catches for a total of 410 yards. The Rebels have turned to running back Josh Williams a
total of 49 times for a total of 229 rushing yards.

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BETTING TRENDS

In their last 10 games, Ole Miss have covered the spread at a rate of 90.0%, while putting
together a straight up record of 9-1-0. Their last 10 scoring differential sits at +17.5, as they
averaged 35.5 points per game while allowing 18.0. The over-under record in these games was
3-7-0.

Across their last 5 road contests, Ole Miss has been good against the spread posting a mark of
4-1-0. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1-0 while averaging 35.2 points per game.

LSU have gone 7-3-0 over their last 10 contests, including posting an ATS record 5-5-0. They
maintained a positive scoring differential in these games by averaging 31.0 per game and allowing
22.9. Their last 10 over-under record is 4-6-0.

When looking at their past 5 home matchups, LSU has an ATS record of 4-1-0 while averaging
34.8 per game. The team went 4-1-0 overall in these games.

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

So far, the Rebels are averaging 40.86 points per game on offense, which is good for 15th most
in college football and will be facing off against an LSU defense that is 35th in points allowed
but have allowed opponents to convert on 3rd down at a rate higher than the NCAA average in just
3 of their games.

This week, Ole Miss may look to throw the ball more than they have, as they are below the NCAA
average in pass attempts per game, but rank well in yards per completion. In addition, they
should have plenty of time to work the ball down the field, with LSU ranking just 69th in sacks
per contest.

So far, Ole Miss has relied heavily on the ground game, as they rank 7th in attempts per game,
with an average of 47.14. This heavy usage, has led to an average of 271.43 rush yards per game,
placing them 3rd in the NCAA. This week, the Rebels will be facing a LSU defense ranked 63rd in
rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have averaged 272.33 yards per game when facing
defenses ranked outside the top 50.

The Rebels will look to once again play well defensively, as they are currently 16th in points
allowed at 17.29 points per game allowed.

In order for the Tigers to find success on offense this week, they will have to continue
converting third downs at a high rate, as they are currently 18th in college football at 54.0%.
However, they will need to be on top of their game vs one of the NCAA’s top scoring defenses.

Although the Tigers have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season,
they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs a Ole Miss defense allowing teams to
complete passes at a rate of 58.58%.

This season, the LSU offense is averaging 37.14 attempts per game. With these opportunites,
they have an average of 173.43 yards per contest, good for 49th in the NCAA. This week, the
Tigers will be facing an Ole Miss defense that is ranked 87th in rush yards allowed per game. So
far, they are averaging 193.17 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

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