San Diego State Aztecs vs. New Mexico Lobos Week 12 Odds & Best Bet

by | Last updated Nov 15, 2022 | cfb

San Diego State Aztecs (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. New Mexico Lobos (2-8 SU, 3—6-1 ATS)

College Football Week 12

Date and Time: Friday, November 18, 2022 at 9:45PM EST

Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico

TV: Fox Sports One

Point Spread: SDSU -14.5/UNM +14.5 (Bovada – Best sportsbook on the web! They’ll give you a 50% bonus, they have the BEST live betting platform on the planet, they give you rebates on every bet; win or lose and they pay FAST via Crypto! What more could you ask for?)

Over/Under Total: 39.5

The San Diego State Aztecs come into Albuquerque to battle the New Mexico Lobos in Mountain West Conference action on Friday night. These are teams headed in opposite directions, with the Aztecs trying to end the season on a spurt, while the Lobos are trying to latch onto any form of success in a season that hit the rocks. On Saturday, a 35-3 loss to Air Force was the Lobos’ seventh straight loss. The Aztecs scored a 43-27 win over San Jose State on Saturday and look for another on the road this week. Who can get us the cover at University Stadium?

Surveying the Landscape

On one hand, expectations were not high on a New Mexico team that lost 31-7 to this Aztecs team last season. This is being viewed as a long-term rebuild, where Danny Gonzalez will have his work cut out in bringing the Lobos back to a level of respectability. But even within that low-expectation context, the Lobos are a bit wayward heading into the final stretch of the season. After a cushy early schedule allowed the Lobos to start at 2-1, they were wholly out of their element in conference play, sponging losses to better MWC teams and doormats alike. It’s one thing to be coming up short, but even with some highly congratulatory point spreads, the Lobos still haven’t covered a spread since September.

San Diego State started off the season rough, but five wins in their last seven show things are coming together decently. In a year of some transition, it’s not the Aztecs team we have become accustomed to seeing the last few seasons, but they’re still dangerous, especially in this context. The QB play of Jaylen Mayden has boosted the offense and given more support to a defense that has started coming back into its own. They’re winning and covering spreads.

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Best Case Scenario for the Lobos

First of all, the Lobos have some points with which to work with the big spread. We’re at that tricky part of the season where the cold can catch certain teams off-guard, namely a San Diego-based squad that will be getting its first taste of real cold weather in Albuquerque on Friday. And that’s what New Mexico would like to see happen—conditions that bog down the game and make it a grind where maybe they can pop their head up at the end. They don’t do a lot of things well, as most teams don’t, who have seven straight losses and aren’t coming close to covering the spread.

Still, throughout all their issues and the lack of offensive success they produce, the Lobos are pretty tough on defense. It might not affect the better conference offenses they face, but we see it resonating against the more-middling offense they face, most of whom are unable to pile points on this team. Despite last week’s 43-point output, we’ve seen a San Diego State mostly scoring points in the teens and twenties. Anything resembling that would make it hard for the Aztecs to cover this two touchdown-plus spread on Friday.

More Picks: Wisconsin at Nebraska anlysis and recommended bet for their Week 12 game

Good Matchup for Aztecs?

After games this season where the Aztecs held UNLV, Nevada, and Hawaii to 31 combined points, backers of the Lobos have to wonder what they can come up with on Friday. We’re looking at a massively-struggling Lobos offense that has produced 45 points of scoring in their last five games combined. Having a nice point spread in their favor and a defense that continues trying despite this utter lack of support is good, but they’re going to have to come up with points, not a guarantee based on what we’ve seen lately. They can sometimes run the ball with RB Nathaniel Jones, and on Friday, they’ll take all they can get.

Something tells me this will come down to the San Diego State offense. Again, we are seeing a New Mexico defense that isn’t folding, and even with teams putting up points on occasion, they always keep it from getting too carried away. They’re just stubborn and resistant enough to keep themselves from being run over embarrassingly. At home, against a San Diego offense that isn’t that good and has to cover a big spread, might that be enough? Or after giving up a combined 103 points in their last three games, are we seeing a Lobos’ defense that is starting to understandably wilt?

Lay the Points on the Road Favorite

The New Mexico angle is not one to be dismissed. The site of this game, the vaguely-respectable UNM defense, and the Aztecs not being the most reliable road offense combines to make New Mexico an interesting option. I just don’t want to tune in on Friday and be reduced to scraps with the New Mexico offense in tatters and facing a good conference defense that might just make scoring a real grind. I don’t see this as being a slam-dunk of any kind, but I suspect the late separation the Aztecs create will be enough to get them to a cover in Albuquerque on Friday. I’ll take San Diego State.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the San Diego State Aztecs minus 14.5 points. Make San Diego St. a +5.5 underdog by inserting them into a massive 20 point college football teaser at Wagerweb Sportsbook!