San Diego State vs. UNLV Prediction ATS 11/19/21

by | Nov 16, 2021 | cfb

San Diego State Aztecs (8-1 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) vs. UNLV Rebels (2-8 SU, 7-3 ATS)

College Football Week 12

Date and Time: Friday, November 19, 2021 at 11:30PM EST

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: CBS Sports Network

Point Spread: SDSU -11/UNLV +11 (Betanysports - Did you know you can bet on sides/totals at -105 instead of -110 there? Dump your overpriced bookie TODAY and start saving big bucks!)

Over/Under Total: 41

The San Diego State Aztecs come to Allegiant Stadium to face the UNLV Rebels on Friday in Mountain West Conference action. UNLV started the season with a rough 0-8 mark and while they weren’t bad against the spread, success was elusive. But their 27-13 win over Hawaii on Saturday was their second win in a row and now at home, they look for what would be a truly outstanding win against division leaders San Diego Stare. On Saturday, in a neck-and-neck war on the road with first-place Nevada, the Aztecs muscled their way to a 23-21 win. Now with the conference lead in the balance, they take on a team that has shown some recent fire. Who can notch the big cover on Friday night?

A Familiar Pairing

These familiar Mountain West rivals know each other well. A lot has changed since last season. And with all the player turnover in college ball, how much a game from early last season means when we’re deep into this season is debatable. But in a 34-6 Aztecs win at home, we saw a lot of the same faces you will see in this game. That includes running backs Chance Bell and Greg Bell, who combined for three TD scores last game. Reinforcing what happened last season is how SDSU is near the top of the conference this season, while UNLV has struggled to so much as win a game. So what registered last season should resound once again.

When Image Doesn’t Fit Reality

An 0-8 start is hard to sugar-coat for the Rebels. And other teams have conclusively shown that beating the likes of New Mexico and Hawaii this season isn’t that difficult. But it means more to a UNLV team that has actually been pretty scrappy, even when it was one loss after the next in succession. Nobody looks at the Rebels as anything other than a Mountain West doormat. But what would you normally say about teams that have won two games in a row, while covering seven of their ten spreads? Because that’s UNLV.

Matchup Issues

The run-stop not being the worst part of the Rebels’ defense might offer some saving grace in this spot. Nevada-Las Vegas is being trounced aerially and the Aztecs being more of a running team would perhaps offer some matchup hope to the Rebels. I’m not so sure. The Aztecs can still connect enough aerially and it’s not like the UNLV run-defense is any good. It’s still solidly below-average. In other words, there isn’t a ton on the UNLV “D” to suggest they’ll offer much to the SDSU offense at first glance, but allowing just 30 combined points in their last two games is a source of hope.

It’s a bit of a tough road spot for the Aztecs. We see enough modest point-totals from this bunch over the course of the season to offer pause before laying points in a conference road spot. In their last five games, they have surpassed 20 points of scoring once. Combine that with a suddenly-successful UNLV team that is showing increased defensive pluck and maybe this isn’t the laugher we would have assumed a few weeks ago.

Best Chance for UNLV

Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen UNLV running back Charles Williams explode in form. He followed up his two-touchdown performance against New Mexico with a 266-yard/3 TD game last week in the win over Hawaii. Granted, San Diego State has been very stiff against the rush for the most part this season, but a hot back could also open things up for UNLV QB Cameron Friel, who has seen a rise in his aerial performances in recent weeks.

This is the Rebels’ second home game in a row. It will be their fourth home-game since October 16. The Aztecs were home last week, but this will be their fourth road-game in six weeks. In a lot of those games, they’re slugging it out with some of the best teams in the conference, while being in all close games, whether they’re playing upper-level conference teams like Fresno or Nevada, but also against so-so teams like Hawaii and San Jose State. But they’ve been in some real battles lately and maybe a road-game here against a team more respectable than they appear might not be the best ATS scenario for the Aztecs.

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Urgency Edge for the Aztecs

From a mental standpoint, getting back into the thick of the conference championship race following such a crushing loss to Fresno State the previous week should have the Aztecs on-point. It’s not going to be a case of them slacking off after beating the far-superior team from Nevada last week. San Diego State has to get through this, then take on a tough Boise squad the following week, while Nevada’s last two games are easier.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

I think this is one spot where you can rightfully anticipate a high-end Aztecs squad showing up at Allegiant Stadium on Friday. The Rebels have been productive especially from a betting perspective, but I sense some of that mojo might wear off this week amidst a more-serious context. I see the Aztecs laying it on thick in this spot and getting out of Vegas with the cover on Friday. I’ll take SDSU in this one.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the San Diego Aztecs minus 11 points. Bet your Week 12 college football picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).

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