Tulsa vs. Cincinnati Predictions ATS 11/6/21

by | Nov 4, 2021 | cfb

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 6, 3:30 p.m.

Where: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: TULS +22.5/CIN -22.5 (Intertops - Open an account with only $25 and they’ll give you and additional $50 FREE! Once you’ve signed up through our special link and deposited, go to their Special Offers Page and enter bonus code ROOKIE200 and an extra $50 will show up in your balance!)

Total: O/U 54.5

Outlook

Cincinnati hasn’t looked great for the past two weeks, and this could be a get-right game for the Bearcats. Cincinnati got a high level of disrespect from the College Football Playoff earlier in the week when it checked in at No. 6 despite being ranked second in the polls, and this team might be looking to make a statement against an overmatched opponent.

If they are, Tulsa appears to be the perfect foil. The Golden Hurricane started out looking like they could be a decent contender in the American after playing Oklahoma State and Ohio State tough, but they’ve looked much less impressive in losing to Navy and barely escaping from a weak South Florida. A bowl is still a possibility for the Golden Hurricane, but they don’t have much of a margin for error if they’re going to qualify for postseason play. They’ve got to find a way past one of Cincinnati and SMU, and with both games being on the road, that’s a pretty remote possibility.

How the Public is Betting the Tulsa/Cincinnati Game

The public is siding with Cincinnati, but the sharps think this might be a point too many. Even though 62 percent of tickets have come in on the Bearcats, the spread has fallen from -23 to -22.5. The total has ticked up slightly, rising from 54 to 54.5.

Injury Concerns

Tulsa:
Safety Kendarin Ray (foot), safety Cristian Williams (undisclosed) and wide receiver Keylon Stokes (undisclosed) are questionable. Quarterback Seth Boomer (knee) and wide receiver Josh Stewart (undisclosed) are out.

Cincinnati:
Cincinnati reports no injuries.

When Tulsa Has the Ball

It’s hard to believe, but Davis Brin actually seems to be regressing as the Golden Hurricane face off against lesser opponents. Against Oklahoma State, Brin completed 70 percent of his passes, but he hasn’t topped 57 percent in any of the past four games, and he’s thrown six touchdowns against six interceptions in that span.

If the run game was getting the job done, that wouldn’t be a problem, but Shamari Brooks couldn’t get going against Navy, and the rest of the Golden Hurricane didn’t really offer much in the way of explosiveness. With Brin throwing for less than 200 yards in two of his past three contests, the running game has to step up if Tulsa is going to have any hope of being competitive.

When Cincinnati Has the Ball

Jerome Ford didn’t have a great performance against Tulane, but this should be a much better game for him on the ground. That’s because Tulsa’s defense got beaten up by Navy’s triple option a week ago, and Ford should be able to take advantage of a defense that has been through the wringer. Cincinnati has been able to count on Ford to gallop through lesser defenses, and he’s never been better than he was against Central Florida, which gave up four first-half touchdowns to the running back.

If Ford isn’t getting it done on the ground, the passing of Desmond Ridder will probably be where the Bearcats choose to strike. Cincinnati has relied on Ridder mostly to make smart decisions with the football, and with 18 scores against four interceptions, Ridder has been able to get the job done throughout the season. The one concern is that it’s taking Cincinnati a bit too long to get going in recent games, and if that becomes a trend, it’s going to be hard to see the Bearcats covering this number. But after getting disrespected by the selection committee this past week, Cincinnati likely has a point to prove.

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Betting Trends

These teams met a year ago in the AAC championship game, but this doesn’t look like it will come anywhere close to the low-scoring games the teams played last year. However, trends favor Tulsa, as the road team has covered in four straight games and the Golden Hurricane have covered six of their past seven games when they’ve been an underdog.

However, Cincinnati has been strong against the number at home, covering in four of their past five games. The one issue the Bearcats have come across is playing down to their competition, as they’ve covered in just one of their past five games against a team with a losing record. One thing that both of these teams have been able to do consistently is put up points, as the Golden Hurricane have gone over in four of their past five road games and the Bearcats have done it in five of six home games.

Weather Report

It’ll be a typical November day in southwestern Ohio, as temperatures will sit in the mid 50s with a lot of sunshine. Wind won’t play much of a role here, as it’ll blow at six miles per hour toward the southeast.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Cincinnati worries me a little, but I get the sense that Tulsa is just about done with this season. The Golden Hurricane got tripped up by Navy despite the Midshipmen never throwing a pass, and I think the Bearcats can come up with a much stronger offensive effort than that.

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