Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Georgia Bulldogs Odds, Trends, Predictions 10/15/22

by | Oct 10, 2022 | cfb

Vanderbilt Commodores (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 7

Date/Time: Saturday October 15th, 2022. 3:30PM (EST)

Where: Sanford Stadium Athens, GA

TV: SECN

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: VAN +38/UGA -38 (You can tease the Dawgs down to -18 by inserting them into a masssive 20 point teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Total: 58

One week after losing the no. 1 ranking in college football due to a poor performance and near upset at the hands of Missouri, the Georgia Bulldogs regained their top ranking in the polls following an impressive 42-10 blowout victory over Auburn. With the victory, Georgia moved to 6-0 SU on the season and extended their regular season win streak to 21 games. On Saturday, Georgia will look to keep their unbeaten streak alive when they host the Vanderbilt Commodores between the hedges as enormous 38-point favorites.

The visiting Commodores will roll into Athens on the heels of a 52-28 defeat to the no. 9 Ole Miss Rebels. The Commodores actually played much better than the final score indicated and were leading 20-10 late in the first half. However, Vanderbilt’s defense gave up too many big plays, including three different passing touchdowns of 60-plus yards, as the Rebels took complete control in the 2nd half. Despite the tumultuous 2nd half collapse, Vanderbilt showed some positive signs that could bring this 38-point betting spread into question on Saturday when they face off with the reigning National Champions.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Analysis

Last week, I made the mistake of choosing the “under” in the Auburn vs. Georgia meeting. My reason was simply based around the extremely talented Bulldogs defense and the horrific offense from Auburn. Unfortunately, Georgia scored more points than I expected to eclipse the total late. For this week’s match-up against Vanderbilt, we really need to understand the Bulldogs’ ceiling on offense to determine how we handle the 38-point betting spread. After all, the Commodores’ defense gave up all types of big plays last week to Ole Miss, and if that happens again, we could definitely make an argument for backing the Bulldogs.

After all, this same Vanderbilt team was derailed by Alabama 55-3 just two weeks ago, which could make 38 points look like a gift. With that being said, Georgia’s offense typically does not produce as many big plays as the likes of Alabama and Ole Miss, especially in the passing game. The Bulldogs implement a power running attack with a carousel of talented running backs in Daijun Edwards, Kendall Milton, and Kenny McIntosh, who have all been held to less than 300 yards rushing. QB Stetson Bennett remains a game-managing style quarterback that essentially feeds off the success of the running game. On the season, Bennett has posted modest results that equate to 69% passing for 1,744 yards with five touchdowns and one interception.

More Picks: Auburn at Ole Miss Week 7 Recommended Bet

Truth be told, Georgia’s offense does not produce the elite offensive metrics that you might expect. Instead, the Bulldogs’ defense has paved the way from the offense’s success by being absolutely dominant. Perhaps the key to this 38-point cover resides heavily on the play of the defense yet again this week because I don’t have much faith that Georgia’s offense will produce ridiculous numbers without a big defensive performance. The good news for Georgia faithful is that Vanderbilt’s offense is rather predictable in their attack. The Commodores put a heavy focus on the ground game with RB Ray Davis, who has 507 yards with four touchdowns on the season. Admittedly, Vanderbilt’s heavy reliance on the ground game has been forced because the quarterback play has been pretty bad. Last week, QB AJ Swann got his 1st start of the season in place of Mike Wright and appeared to provide a better pure throwing threat. However, I’m not confident we will see similar results this week against a relentless Georgia defense that is allowing just 260 yards per game on the season.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Prediction

Vanderbilt’s defense is a liability, but I don’t believe Georgia poses the same vertical threats that the Commodores have struggled to defend. If Vanderbilt’s defense can just limit the big-play touchdowns, I think this line is far too wide. I’ll take my chances with the points in this game and remind bettors that Kirby Smart and Georgia are just 1-5 ATS in the last six games as plus 30-point favorites.

Jay’s Pick: Take Vanderbilt +38. Bet your Week Seven CFB predictions at no cost by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!