Bet the Runline: Nats vs. Braves 9/19/22

by | Sep 19, 2022 | mlb

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Monday September 19th, 07:20 ET

Location: Truist Park

TV: Bally Sports South(

Money Line: Nationals +270 / Braves -345 (Dimelines - It’s the only way to bet MLB!)

Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

Washington: Cory Abbott (0-2, 4.37)
Atlanta: Kyle Wright (18-5, 3.18)

Nationals Projected Lineup

Alex Call LF
Ildemaro Vargas 3B
Luis Garcia 2B
Joey Meneses 1B
C.J. Abrams SS
Riley Adams C
Luke Voit 1B
Nelson Cruz CF
Lane Thomas RF
Cory Abbott P

Braves Projected Lineup

William Contreras C
Michael Harris II CF
Vaughn Grissom 2B
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Travis d’Arnaud C
Austin Riley 3B
Robbie Grossman LF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Kyle Wright P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Washington Nationals: 51-94-0 SU / OU 69-69-8 / Run Line W/L 65-81-0
Atlanta Braves: 90-55-0 SU / OU 73-65-8 / Run Line W/L 76-70-0

The Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals on Monday September 19th at Truist Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:20 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-345), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Nationals come into this game having suffered a 3-1 loss to Miami. In the losing effort, the pitching staff still held Miami to just 3 runs on 6 hits. Offensively, they finished with just 1 run on 7 hits. The loss came as Washington was the betting underdog, getting 155.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Nationals and Miami stayed below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. After the game, Washington dropped back to an over-under record of 69-69-8.

In their last 5 games, the Nationals are below .500, at 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -4. On offense, Washington’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 3.2 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Washington’s overall series record is just 11-30-5.

Atlanta will look to keep things rolling in today’s game, as they most recently took down Phillies by 3 runs 5-2. For the game, the pitching staff held the Phillies to 2 runs on 4 hits. In the victory, the Braves came up with 10 hits and 5 runs. Atlanta picked up the win while being favored at -260.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 124 games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. With this result, the Braves and Phillies combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. Even still, Atlanta games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 73-65-8.

In their last 5 games, the Braves have put together a record of 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +10 (last 5). Atlanta has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.4 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.94. On the season, Atlanta has won more than half of their series, going 25-15-6.

oPitching Matchup

Washington will roll with Cory Abbott (0-2) as their starter. So far, Abbott has put together an ERA of 4.37. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 2.69 innings. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting .222 against Abbott. Despite a strong batting average allowed, Abbott is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 2.06 homers per 9 innings pitched. Abbott has had trouble generating strikeouts, averaging just 2.46 K’s per game on a K rate of 21.0%. Throughout the season, Abbott has avoided walking batters, allowing just 4.11 per contest.

Atlanta will roll with Kyle Wright (18-5) as their starter. Heading into the game, Wright has appeared in 27 contests, posting an ERA of just 3.18. On average, he pitches 6.07 innings per appearance. This season opponents are hitting 0.229 against Wright. So far, Wright has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.99 home runs per 9 innings. On the season, Kyle Wright has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 24.0%. This has led to an average of 5.85 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.69 walks per outing.

Washington vs Atlanta History

Today’s matchup between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves will be their 14th meeting of the season. Currently, Atlanta is winning the season series 10-3. The over-under record in this series sits at 9-4. The average run total in these games is 9.16 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.85 runs. Dating back to last season, Atlanta picked up 14 wins compared to 5, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 9-10. Last year, the Nationals and Braves averaged 9.16 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 2.63 runs per game.

More Picks: Arizona vs. LA Dodgers Best Bet for 9/19/22

Betting Trends

  • Nationals are 22-47 in their last 69 overall.
  • Nationals are 20-43 in their last 63 games following a loss.
  • Braves are 23-7 in their last 30 during game 1 of a series.
  • Braves are 16-5 in their last 21 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves Prediction

Heading into Monday’s AL East matchup between Washington and Atlanta, the Braves are the heavy favorite on the moneyline and should have no problem rolling to a win. Kyle Wright will be gunning for his 19th win of the season and has a WHIP sitting at just 1.15. I recommend the Braves on the runline.

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