MLB Betting Tips
Understand the Basics of Baseball Betting
Before you start betting on baseball games, it’s important to understand the basics of how the betting lines and odds work. It’s mind-blowing how many people bet on the sport, yet don’t understand how the (-) and (+) work. If you want to have a chance of winning, it’s imperative that you fully understand odds. More importantly, you need to understand if you’re betting a line of -150, this means you have to win 60% of your bets to break even. If you’re laying -200 odds, you need to win 67% of your bets to break even. When you look at standings, you don’t see many teams with win-loss records above 67%, so be very careful when “laying the wood” because one or two losses at these numbers will have you chasing your losses, which is just where the bookies want you.
Let’s move on to popular bet types. When you bet on baseball, you’ll typically see three main types of bets:
Moneyline Bets: Moneyline bets are the simplest type of bet in baseball. When you place a moneyline wager, you’re simply betting on which team will win the game. (Unlike football or basketball, where point spreads are involved) The odds for a moneyline bet are expressed as a positive or negative number, with the negative number indicating the favorite and the positive number indicating the underdog. For example, if the odds for a game are -150 for the favorite and +130 for the underdog, you’d need to bet $150 on the favorite to win $100, or bet $100 on the underdog to win $130. Tip: The beautiful thing about betting baseball underdogs is since they pay more than you risk, you can win less than fifty percent of the time and still turn a profit!
Totals Bets: (AKA: Over/Unders) This type of wager has nothing to do with which team wins the game. This bet combines both teams scores to determine whether it goes over or under the posted total. These wagers are great, because the vigorish (house commission) is usually very low, which puts your break-even percentage in the 52.38% range. (Assuming you’re laying -110 odds) Tip: Most novice bettors don’t focus on totals, which is a big mistkae, but the sharps/wiseguys do! There’s a reason bookmakers put limits on over/under wagers. They’re easier to beat!
Runline Bets: Runline bets are similar to point spread bets in other sports. When you place a runline bet, you’re betting on which team will win the game by a certain margin. The most common runline in MLB is -1.5 runs, which means that the favorite would need to win the game by at least 2 runs to cover the spread. The odds for a runline bet are typically lower than for a moneyline bet, but the potential payout can be higher if you’re willing to take on the additional risk. In recent years, many sportsbooks have started to offer “alternative runlines” where you can lay/take more than 1.5. In fact, Bovada Sportsbook offers runlines up to 5.5!
Use Data and Analytics to Inform Your Bets
One of the keys to successful MLB betting is using data and analytics to inform your decisions. There are a number of different statistics and metrics that can be useful for evaluating teams and players, such as:
Team records: Looking at a team’s overall record can give you a good sense of how they’ve been performing recently. However, it’s important to look beyond just the win-loss record, as some teams may have been lucky or unlucky in close games.
Pitcher statistics: Pitching is one of the most important aspects of baseball, so it’s important to pay close attention to a team’s starting pitcher. Some key statistics to consider include ERA (earned run average), WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), and strikeout rate. One of my favorites is WHIP. If you see a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.50, this tells us they allow an average of 1.5 base runners per inning. You can’t win games with men on base all the time. Unfortunately, the opportunity to fade these pitchers are far and few in between because these pitchers with lack of command and that give up a bunch of hits get sent down to the minors quickly. Tip: If a young pitcher is involved, take a minute to go to Milb.com and see how he’s pitched in the minors. In most cases, the pitcher in question is going to pitch worse in the bigs than he did in the minors, due to a much lesser skill set of the hitters he faced.
Offensive statistics: A team’s offense is also important to consider when making bets. Key offensive statistics include batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Tip: Recency bias is real. Players get hot and players get cold. Try to check a team’s recent hitting stats by toggling the stats offered at MLB.com/stats/.
Home/away splits: Some teams may perform better or worse at home or on the road, so it’s important to consider a team’s home/away record when making bets. This is especially true with pitchers. I always check how a pitcher does at a certain ballpark. You’d be amazed at how consistently good or bad a pitcher is at a certain stadium. I use Yahoo.com to find career splits for a player. Example: “Dylan Cease Yahoo Splits.” The splits default to the current season, but you can toggle those splits for his whole career and l look for strenghts and weaknesses. Tip: Be sure to check how a pitcher does in day games vs. night games. The differences can be huge!
Consider the Weather and Playing Conditions
The weather and playing conditions can also have a significant impact on MLB games, so it’s important to take these factors into account when making bets. Some things to consider include:
Wind direction and speed: Wind can affect the flight of the ball and make it more difficult for batters to hit home runs. Tip: Wrigley Field is a venue which you’ll want to give the proper attention. Conditions can vary wildly and make you boatloads of cash at times.
Temperature and humidity: The temperature and humidity can also affect the flight of the ball, as well as the performance of pitchers. Hitters generally perform better in warm conditions. Consider fading a heavy-set pitcher in high heat/humidty situations due to fatigue/overheating.
Ballpark dimensions: The size and dimensions of the ballpark can also impact the game, with larger ballparks typically favoring pitchers and smaller ballparks favoring hitters.
Time of day: Games played during the day may have different playing conditions than games played at night, so it’s important to consider the time of day when making bets. Tip: Some hitters see the ball better in day games. Identify those players, play prop bets on them and rake in the cash!
Shop Around for the Best Odds
One of the keys to maximizing your profits in MLB betting is to shop around for the best odds. Not all sportsbooks are created equal! Different sportsbooks may offer different odds for the same game, so it’s important to compare odds from multiple sources before placing your bets. This can help you find the best value and increase your potential profits over time. A sportsbook like BetAnySports offers reduced betting odds every day. It’s like paying Walmart prices! Who doesn’t want to pay less? It’s mind-blowing how many people we talk to who bet into 20-cent lines when they could be betting 10-cent dimelines!
Manage Your Bankroll Effectively
Finally, it’s important to manage your bankroll effectively when betting on baseball. This means setting a budget for how much you’re willing to bet, and sticking to that budget regardless of whether you’re winning or losing. It’s also important to avoid chasing losses or trying to make up for past losses by placing larger bets than you’re comfortable with. Instead, focus on making informed, calculated bets that offer good value and increase your chances of long-term success. Don’t be that guy who went 4-1 in the early games, then bet it all on the late game and lose, ending your day with a winning record of 4-2 and am empty wallet. It’s very common. Don’t allow your emotions to get the best of you!
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best type of bet to make in MLB?
The best type of bet in MLB depends on your individual preferences and risk tolerance. Moneyline bets are generally the simplest and most straightforward, while runline bets can offer higher potential payouts but also come with more risk. Totals are the easiest to beat long-term.
What statistics should I pay attention to when betting on MLB?
When betting on MLB, it’s important to pay attention to a variety of statistics, including team records, pitcher statistics, offensive statistics, and home/away splits. Using data and analytics to inform your bets can help you make more informed decisions and increase your chances of success. Tip: It’s also a good thing to learn all the baseball terms and acronyms. An educated bettor is a winning bettor!
How can I find the best odds for MLB games?
To find the best odds for MLB games, it’s important to shop around and compare odds from multiple sportsbooks. This can help you find the best value and maximize your potential profits over time. The best priced baseball betting odds can be found at BetAnySports Sportsbook. They allow new members to choose a bonus or reduced juice betting. Take the reduced juice! It’s worth way more than any bonus you’ll ever receive as it’s the gift that keeps on giving! We’ve advertised them for over a decade with ZERO complaints.
What is bankroll management, and why is it important in MLB betting?
Bankroll management refers to the practice of setting a budget for how much you’re willing to bet, and sticking to that budget regardless of whether you’re winning or losing. Effective bankroll management is important in MLB betting (and all forms of gambling) because it helps you avoid chasing losses or making impulsive decisions that can lead to bigger losses over time.
In conclusion, MLB betting can be an exciting and potentially profitable way to get involved in wagering By understanding the basics of MLB betting, using data and analytics to inform your decisions, considering the weather and playing conditions, shopping around for the best odds, and managing your bankroll effectively, you can increase your chances of winning money and enjoy a fun and rewarding betting experience.
