Braves vs. Dodgers Pick – NLCS Game 1 Analysis

by | Oct 12, 2020 | mlb

Atlanta Braves (35-25) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (43-17), 10/12/20<br>
Time: 8:08 pm ET Monday, Oct. 12

Where: Globe Life Field

TV: Fox

Listed Pitchers: Max Fried (7-0, 2.25) vs. Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.44)

Moneyline: Braves +140/Dodgers -150 (BAS - Bet on games at reduced/discounted odds!)

Over/Under: 8

The Dodgers, who posted the best record in the Majors during the abbreviated regular season, now meet the Braves in the National League Championship Series, which begins Monday night on neutral ground in Arlington. LA is listed as a -225 favorite to win this NLCS, with Atlanta getting +185 as the underdog. How are we playing this Game 1 with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

MLB’s playoff betting odds opened Los Angeles and Walker Buehler at around -155 for this NLCS opener over Atlanta and Fried, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped the Dodgers to -150 and the total to eight.

LA could also be found getting around +135, giving the run and a half on the MLB betting run line.

Braves vs. Dodgers Set-Up

Los Angeles is the home team for the first two games of this NLDS based on the better regular-season records, 43-17 to 35-25.

Atlanta opened this MLB postseason by sweeping two games from Cincinnati in the wild-card round, holding the Reds scoreless through 22 innings of play. The Braves then swept Miami from the NL divisional round in three games, outscoring the Marlins 18-5. So Atlanta is back in the NLCS for the first time since 2001.

Meanwhile, LA opened its postseason by sweeping two games from Milwaukee in the wild-card round, then swept San Diego in three games in the NLDS. The Dodgers outscored the Brewers and Padres by a combined 30-11. So Los Angeles is back in the NLCS for the fourth time in the last five years.

These two teams did not meet during the regular season this year.

Game 1 Starting Arms

Buehler is just 1/10 on quality starts this season, although that’s mainly due to a short leash. Last Tuesday, in the NLDS against San Diego, he allowed one run and two hits through four innings, with four walks and eight strikeouts, in a 5-1 Los Angeles victory. Six days before that, in the wild-card round against Milwaukee, he allowed two runs through four innings, again with eight strikeouts, in a 4-2 Dodgers win.

On the season, LA is 9-1 with Buehler, 8-0 over his last eight starts.

In his most recent start against Atlanta, back in May of last season, Buehler allowed three runs through seven frames of a 5-3 Los Angeles win.

Lefty Fried is 5/13 on quality starts this year, but he also was held on a short leash, five times coming within three outs of a QS before getting pulled. Last Tuesday, in the NLDS against Miami, he got nicked for four runs and six hits through four innings, although the Braves won that game anyway 9-5. But over his three appearances previous to that, including a winning performance against the Reds in the wild-card round, he gave up just three runs and 12 hits through 13 innings.

On the season, Atlanta is 12-1 with Fried, 4-0 over his last four starts.

In two starts against the Dodgers last year, Fried gave up seven runs and 12 hits through just six innings of work. The Braves managed to split those two games.

Game 1 Batting Splits

Atlanta batted .273 this season against right-handed pitching, with a .354 team OBP and a .498 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those helped this lineup rank as the best in the Majors in this split this year.

Los Angeles batted .250/.336/.442 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Braves bullpen posted a 3.50 ERA this season, along with a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.64 K/BB ratio.

The Dodgers pen put up a 2.74 ERA, an ML-best 1.04 WHIP, and a 3.34 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those help this unit rank as the best bullpen in baseball this year.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Atlanta played 27-21 against right-handed starters this season.
  • Los Angeles played 13-5 against left-handed starters this season.
  • Atlanta played 4-11 as an underdog this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs played 32-23 in Braves games this season.
  • Overs played 27-26 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Overs played 14-13 at Globe Life Field this season.

Free MLB Pick

We give Fried the edge in the pitching match-up, and while LA owns the better bullpen, Atlanta gets the check-mark in the splits with the sticks. Plus, the Braves are getting. Bet your MLB playoffs picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at one of the web’s best baseball betting sites: MyBookie!

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