Buck the Trends: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Total Pick

by | Jun 28, 2022 | mlb

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Tuesday, June 28th, 07:07 ET

Location: Rogers Centre

TV: NESN

Money Line: Red Sox 128 / Blue Jays -138 (BAS - Odds cost less here! The ultimate gift!)

Total Line: 10.0

STARTING PITCHING

Boston: Michael Wacha (6-1, 2.34)
Toronto: Ross Stripling (4-2, 3.08)

Red Sox Projected Lineup

Franchy Cordero 1B
Christian Vázquez C
Alex Verdugo LF
Rob Refsnyder RF
Trevor Story 2B
Rafael Devers 3B
Jackie Bradley Jr. RF
J.D. Martinez LF
Xander Bogaerts SS
Michael Wacha P

Blue Jays Projected Lineup

Matt Chapman 3B
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF
Teoscar Hernández RF
Raimel Tapia LF
Santiago Espinal 2B
Alejandro Kirk C
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
George Springer CF
Bo Bichette SS
Ross Stripling P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Boston Red Sox: 42-32-0 SU / OU 29-38-7 / Run Line W/L 41-33-0
Toronto Blue Jays: 41-32-0 SU / OU 39-33-1 / Run Line W/L 33-40-0

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday, June 28th at Rogers Centre. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:07 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Toronto as the favorite (-140), with an OU line set at 10.0.

Recent Form

The Red Sox will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Blue Jays by the score of 7-2. Boston’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 10 hits, leading to 7 runs. The Red Sox ended the game with just 2 runs on 8 hits. Boston’s loss came as the underdog, getting 165.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Red Sox and Blue Jays stayed below the over-under line set at 9.5 runs. With this result, Boston’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 29-38-7.

The Red Sox come into this game with a 4-1 record over their last 5 contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +9. Overall, Boston is averaging 4.77 runs per game. Over their last 5 contests, they have been producing at a similar rate, at 4.77. So far, Boston has won over half of their 24 series played, going 12-9-3.

The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off a big win over the Red Sox by a score of 7-2. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Red Sox to 2 runs and 8 hits. Offensively, they finished with 7 runs on 10 hits. In the game, Toronto was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -200.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 56 games, winning at a rate of 59.0%. Combined, the Blue Jays and Red Sox run total fell below the over-under line of 9.5 runs. Toronto still has an above .500 over-under record at (39-33-1).

Across their last 5 contests, the Blue Jays are above .500, going 3-2. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +6 (last 5). Compared to their season average, the Blue Jays come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 6.4 runs per game. On the season, Toronto has won more than half of their series, going 13-8-3.

Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will send Michael Wacha to the mound with an overall record of 6-1. Through 12 appearances, Wacha has an ERA of just 2.34 while averaging 5.42 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just 0.205 against him. Per 9 innings pitched, Wacha is averaging 0.97 home runs allowed. This season, he has struck out 18.0 of the batters he has faced. This has led to a per-game average of 4.0. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Wacha is averaging 2.62 free passes per outing.

Ross Stripling gets the start for the Blue Jays, with an overall record of 4-2. Heading into the game, Stripling has appeared in 17 contests, posting an ERA of just 3.08. On average, he pitches 3.07 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just 0.22 against him. Home runs have not been an issue for Stripling, as he is giving up just 0.52 per 9. Up to this point, Stripling has a strikeout percentage of just 20.0% and a per game average of 2.53. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.88 walks per contest.

Boston vs Toronto History

For the season, the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays will be playing their 9th game of the season. Currently, Toronto is winning the season series 6-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-6. The average run total in these games is 10.05 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.0 runs. Going back to last year, Boston won the season series, 10 games to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 9-10, with the average run total being 10.05 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.26 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Toronto’s last 13 games at home

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s AL East matchup between Boston and Toronto, the over-under betting line is set at 10 runs. However, I see both Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha putting together strong performances on the mound. Look for this to be a lower-scoring game than expected. I like the under.

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