Dodgers vs. Marlins Runline Prediction 8/27/22

by | Aug 27, 2022 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins
Date: Saturday August 27th, 06:10 ET
Location: LoanDepot park
TV: Bally Sports Florida
Money Line: Dodgers -175 / Marlins +144
Total Line: 7.0

STARTING PITCHING

Los Angeles: Dustin May (1-0, 0.0)
Miami: Sandy Alcantara (11-6, 2.19)

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Gavin Lux 2B
Chris Taylor 2B
Max Muncy 1B
Mookie Betts RF
Justin Turner 3B
Cody Bellinger CF
Will Smith C
Freddie Freeman 1B
Trea Turner SS
Dustin May P

Marlins Projected Lineup

Jacob Stallings C
Lewin Diaz 1B
Brian Anderson RF
Miguel Rojas SS
Joey Wendle 2B
Peyton Burdick CF
Jesús Aguilar 1B
J.J. Bleday LF
Jon Berti 3B
Sandy Alcantara P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Los Angeles Dodgers: 87-37-0 SU / OU 51-62-10 / Run Line W/L 77-46-0
Miami Marlins: 54-71-0 SU / OU 52-65-7 / Run Line W/L 57-67-0

The Miami Marlins host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday August 27th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Los Angeles as the favorite (-175), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

In Los Angeles’s last game vs Miami, the Dodgers came away with a 10-6 win. The Marlins came up with 8 hits leading to 6 runs against Los Angeles’s pitchers. The Dodgers benefited from an offense that generated 12 runs on 16 hits. Heading into their last game, Los Angeles was the betting favorite at -286.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 121 of their games, winning at a rate of 71.0%. With the over-under line set at 7.5 runs, the Dodgers and Marlins combined to go over this total. On the season, Los Angeles’s over-under record is 51-62-10.

In the Dodgers’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 4-1. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +22. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 8.4 runs per game, compared to their season average of 5.40. So far, Los Angeles has won over half of their 39 series played, going 28-9-2.

The Marlins will look to bounce back from a tight 10-6 loss to the Dodgers. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 16 hits, leading to 3 runs. With their 8 hits, the Marlins could only plate 2 runners. This loss came as no surprise, as Miami came into the game as the underdog, getting 240.0. In their 65 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 28.99%. With this result, the Marlins and Dodgers combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Now, Miami had an over-under record of 52-65-7.

The Marlins come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -7 over their last 5 games. In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate of 3.8, similar to their season long average of 3.66. Miami has a below .500 series record of just 12-23-5.

Pitching Matchup

The Los Angeles Dodgers will send Dustin May to the mound with an overall record of 1-0. In his only appearance, May went 5 innings without giving up a run. Up to this point, May has a strikeout percentage of just 50.0%, while racking up 9 against Miami.

The Miami Marlins will send Sandy Alcantara to the mound with an overall record of 11-6. Through 25 appearances, Alcantara has an ERA of just 2.19 while averaging 7.05 innings per appearance. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just .206 against the right-hander. This year Alcantara is allowing just 0.46 home runs per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Sandy Alcantara is averaging 6.28, on a strikeout percentage of 23.0%. Command has been a problem for Alcantara, as he is giving up 2.24 walks per outing.

Los Angeles vs Miami History

Today’s matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins will be their 4th meeting of the season. So far, Los Angeles is leading the season series, 3-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-2. The average run total in these games is 8.71 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 5.0 runs. Miami won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 4 wins to 3. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-3. Last year, the Dodgers and Marlins averaged 8.71 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.0 runs per game.

More Picks: Baltimore vs. Houston betting analysis & free pick for 8/27/22

Betting Trends

  • LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
  • LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
  • Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins Prediction

Heading into Saturday night’s matchup between Los Angeles and Miami, the Dodgers are the strong favorite to pick up another win over the Marlins. Although Sandy Alcantara has been excellent for Miami, he struggled against the Dodgers in his last outing. Look for this trend to continue as Los Angeles goes on to cover the runline.

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