Falcons vs Packers Player Props for Thursday Night Football
Thursday, September 24, 2026
8:15 PM ET, Lambeau Field
Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 3 with the Falcons visiting Green Bay at Lambeau Field. Atlanta is turning to Michael Penix Jr. in his season debut after Cooper Rush’s disastrous first two weeks, while the Packers try to build off their overtime win over the Jets. With the game total dropping from 46.5 at open to 44.5 and both offenses facing real challenges, four player props align cleanly with the low-scoring, defensive-oriented game we’re expecting.
Here are four picks that align with the Under 44.5 game script.
Bijan Robinson UNDER 78.5 Rushing Yards
Green Bay’s rush defense is a specific problem for Bijan Robinson. The Packers rank second overall in defensive rush success rate, and their front seven has been elite at stopping the run through two weeks. Robinson rushed for 83 yards in Week 1 against Pittsburgh but only 72 last week against Carolina — and Carolina’s rush defense isn’t in the same league as Green Bay’s. Add in the game script factor: if Atlanta falls behind (which is very likely given Penix is making his first start in nine months coming off an ACL recovery), Robinson’s carries drop while the Falcons chase points. Realistic Robinson rushing total: 55-70 yards. Well under 78.5.
Bijan Robinson OVER 4.5 Receptions
This prop works both directions. If Atlanta trails and needs to pass more, Robinson becomes the safety valve for a rusty Penix trying to avoid taking hits on his surgically-repaired knee. Robinson had 8 receptions in Week 1 and ranks first among running backs in target share and yards per route run. With Penix expected to dump off frequently in his season debut, 5+ receptions is a very reasonable projection. In Robinson’s last 5 games with Penix as quarterback, he’s hit 4.5 receptions three times.
Michael Penix Jr. UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Penix is making his first start after missing the entire preseason and Weeks 1-2 recovering from an ACL injury. He’s played just 14 career games and has only 3 multi-touchdown performances across those starts. Coming off ACL surgery, on the road at Lambeau Field, against a Packers defense that’s been solid in the red zone, expect Penix to check down repeatedly, get sacked multiple times, and struggle to sustain drives to touchdowns. Realistic touchdown output: 1 TD (or 0). The plus-money price of +198 offers real value on the Under side.
Jordan Love UNDER 226.5 Passing Yards
Love is coming off a 145-yard performance against the Jets in Week 2 — a game where he struggled with wet conditions and inconsistent protection. This week, Green Bay is favored, at home, and playing against an Atlanta defense that just held the Falcons’ offense to 3 points against Carolina. The Packers’ game plan should be run-heavy in the second half if they build a lead, and Love’s passing volume drops in those situations. Realistic Love passing output: 200-220 yards, comfortably under 226.5. The controlled game script that produces the Under also produces Love’s low passing total.
Prop Card Summary:
– Bijan Robinson UNDER 78.5 Rushing Yards
– Bijan Robinson OVER 4.5 Receptions
– Michael Penix Jr. UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
– Jordan Love UNDER 226.5 Passing Yards
