Mariners vs. Astros Odds & Predictions 7/29/22

by | Jul 29, 2022 | mlb

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

Date: Friday July 29th, 08:10 ET

Location: Minute Maid Park

TV: ATT SportsNet-SW

Money Line: Mariners +144 / Astros -175 (Bovada - Check out their incredible live betting platform! It blows away the rest!)

Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Seattle: Robbie Ray (8-7, 3.9)
Houston: Justin Verlander (13-3, 1.86)

Mariners Projected Lineup

Kyle Lewis RF
Cal Raleigh C
Jesse Winker LF
Eugenio Suárez 3B
Adam Frazier 2B
J.P. Crawford SS
Carlos Santana 1B
Julio Rodriguez CF
Ty France 1B
Robbie Ray P

Astros Projected Lineup

Jake Meyers CF
Aledmys Díaz 3B
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Justin Verlander P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Seattle Mariners: 54-45-0 SU / OU 46-52-2 / Run Line W/L 50-50-0
Houston Astros: 64-35-0 SU / OU 36-61-3 / Run Line W/L 52-48-0

The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on Friday July 29th, at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-175), with an OU line set at 7.5.

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In Seattle’s last game, they fell to the Astros by a score of 4-2. On their way to giving up 4 runs, the Mariners staff allowed 6 hits. With their 5 hits, the Mariners could only muster 2 runs. Seattle’s loss came as the underdog, getting 125.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 8.5 runs. This outcome pushed Seattle’s over-under record further below .500 at 46-52-2.

The Mariners come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Even with this record, in these games, their scoring differential is just -1. Overall, Seattle is averaging 4.08 runs per game. Over their last 5 contests, they have been producing at a similar rate, at 4.08. So far, Seattle has won over half of their 32 series played, going 17-14-1.

In their last game, Houston took down the Mariners by a score of 4-2. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits. With their 6 hits, the Astros could only muster 4 runs. Houston picked up the win while being favored at -135.0. So far, the team has won 68.0% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Astros and Mariners combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 36-61-3.

The Astros come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -1. In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate of 4.4 runs per game, similar to their season long average of 4.43. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 22-10-2.

Pitching Matchup

Robbie Ray gets the start for the Mariners, with an overall record of 8-7. To date, Ray has an ERA of 3.9 while lasting an average of 6.0 innings per appearance. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.225 against Ray. Opponents have been able to hit for power against Ray, as he has an HR/9 figure of 1.5. In terms of strikeouts, Robbie Ray has a strong strikeout percentage of 28%, including a per game average of 6.8. Command has been a problem for Ray, as he is giving up 2.85 walks per outing.

Houston will roll with Justin Verlander (13-3) as their starter. In his previous outings, Verlander has lasted an average of 6.45 innings, putting together an ERA of just 1.86. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just 0.192 against the right-hander. Verlander is giving up home runs a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.93 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Justin Verlander has a strong K% of 26.0%, including a per-game average of 6.5. Verlander comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 1.62 free passes per outing.

Seattle vs Houston History

For the season, the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros will be playing their 17th game of the season. Currently, Houston is winning the season series 10-6. Through 16 games, the series over-under record is 6-10, with the average run total sitting at 9.37 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.88 runs. Houston won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 11 wins to 8. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 11-7. Last year, the Mariners and Astros averaged 9.37 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.79 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Mariners are 22-6 in their last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Mariners are 25-7 in their last 32 overall.
  • Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.
  • Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Prediction

Heading into Friday night’s American League showdown between Seattle and Houston, the Astros are the favorite to come away with a win. In what should be a fun battle between Robbie Ray and Justin Verlander, I expect Houston to come out on top. In his last outing vs the Astros, Ray gave up 6 runs in just 3 innings. Although I see him faring better this time around, I don’t expect much for run support vs Verlander. I like Houston to cover the runline.

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