Mariners vs. Padres Runline Pick for July 9

by | Last updated Jul 9, 2024 | mlb

Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Date: Tuesday, July 9th, 9:40 ET
Location: PETCO Park
Money Line: Mariners -142/Padres +120
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the San Diego Padres and the Mariners on Tuesday, July 9th at PETCO Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
SEA -142 -1.5 O 8 (-109)
SD +120 +1.5 U 8 (-111)

At 9:40 PM ET, the Mariners and Padres square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Mariners are currently on a two-game losing streak, but they are still first in the AL West with a record of 49-43. The Padres are 2nd in the NL West at 49-45.

MLBN will be televising Tuesday’s game, and the money line odds have the Mariners at -142 compared to the Padres at +120. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs. Logan Gilbert is starting for the Mariners, while the Padres are going with Adam Mazur.

Mariners vs. Padres Projected Lineup

Player Batting Order Position
J.P. Crawford 1 SS
Julio Rodríguez 2 CF
Cal Raleigh 3 C
Mitch Garver 4 DH
Luke Raley 5 LF
Ty France 6 1B
Jorge Polanco 7 2B
Dominic Canzone 8 RF
Josh Rojas 9 3B
Logan Gilbert SP

Player Batting Order Position
Luis Arraez 1 2B
Jurickson Profar 2 LF
Jake Cronenworth 3 1B
Manny Machado 4 3B
Donovan Solano 5 DH
Jackson Merrill 6 CF
David Peralta 7 RF
Ha-Seong Kim 8 SS
Luis Campusano 9 C
Adam Mazur SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Seattle Mariners: 49-43 SU / OU 38-49 / Runline 41-51
San Diego Padres: 49-45 SU / OU 51-42 / Runline 49-45

Mariners Records & Recent Play

The Mariners will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Blue Jays with a 5-4 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Blue Jays scored three runs in the top of the 7th. Seattle was the -147 favorite at home going into the game.

George Kirby put together a good start for the Mariners, going six innings and giving up just three runs on seven hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and took the loss. Mitch Garver had a big game at the plate, going 2/5 with a homer and three RBIs.

Seattle heads into today’s road matchup vs. the Padres having dropped two straight games, and they are 49-43 overall this season. The Mariners lead the AL West by two games over the Astros and have gone 17-5 against other teams in their division.

At home, the Mariners have gone 30-18 this season, and they are just below .500 at 19-25 on the road. As the road favorite, the Mariners are 8-11 this year, and they are 31-24 when favored overall. Seattle’s overall series record is 13-14-2, and they lost six straight series at one point.

Seattle is 41-51 against the run line this season, and they have been favored in 55 games. They have a losing run line streak when favored of seven games, and they are 21-34 against the run line when favored this season. Their average run differential in winning games is 3.0 runs per game, while their average run differential in losing games is -3.3 runs per game.

Seattle’s over/under record is 38-49, and the average over/under line in their games is 8 runs. When the line is set at 8 runs, their record is 5-10-1. The over has hit in two straight games, and the combined run average in their games is 7.6 runs per game.

Padres Records & Recent Play

The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Diamondbacks with a 9-1 loss. San Diego was the heavy favorite at -173 going into the game but fell behind early, as the Diamondbacks scored a run in the 1st inning. Things really got away from the Padres in the 4th, as the Diamondbacks scored five runs in the inning. San Diego’s offense scored their only run in the 1st but then went on to give up the lead right away.

Dylan Cease had a rough outing, giving up three earned runs on five hits and issuing a walk. He also hit a batter and took the loss. The Padres’s offense was carried by Jurickson Profar, who went 1/2 with a homer.

San Diego is hosting the Mariners today with an overall record of 49-45, which has them 2nd in the NL West. Currently, they trail the Dodgers by 7.5 games. The Padres lost the final two games of their series vs. the Diamondbacks. So far this year, they are 15-17 in divisional games.

At home, the Padres are 25-24 this season and 24-21 on the road. As the underdog, the Padres have won three straight, and they are 21-18 in those games this year. San Diego’s overall series record is 17-11-3, and they have won two straight series on the road.

The Padres are a good run line team overall, but not at home. They are 49-45 against the run line this season, but just 18-31 at home. They are 31-14 against the run line on the road, where they have a run differential of +0.9 runs per game. They are 28-11 against the run line as an underdog, but just 21-34 as a favorite.

San Diego’s games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season, and the Padres have gone over the total in 51 of their 93 games this year. When the over/under line is set at 8, they have gone over 7 times, under 8 times, and pushed once. Their last three games have all gone over the total.

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Pitching Matchup

Through 18 starts, Logan Gilbert has a record of 5-5 and an ERA of 2.91. He has made 14 quality starts this year and is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts and didn’t give up a run in either outing. Gilbert’s WHIP for the season is currently .92, and opponents are batting .194 off the right-hander this year. So far, he has allowed 13 home runs. Gilbert’s walk per nine innings figure is currently at 1.84 compared to 8.26 strikeouts per nine innings.

Adam Mazur is hoping to bounce back from his last outing, where he gave up four earned runs in four innings of work. In that July 3rd outing vs. the Rangers, he gave up seven hits and didn’t issue a walk. Against the Mariners today, the right-hander has a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 7.52. Mazur’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.82. Looking back at his last six outings, Mazur has made one quality start and is averaging just 5.13 strikeouts per nine innings. At home, his ERA is 12.33 compared to 5.14 on the road.

Mariners vs. Padres Offense Outlook

Julio Rodriguez has been a bright spot for the Mariners so far this season, batting .247 with eight home runs. He is also 4th on the team with 30 RBIs. Cal Raleigh leads the team in RBIs, but he is hitting just .203. Mitch Garver has also struggled with a batting average of .179, but he is 2nd on the team with 12 homers. Garver has gone 5/19 in his last five games with two homers.

Overall, the Mariners are 27th in the MLB in scoring at 3.8 runs per game. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.6 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .217, which is the worst mark in the league. Seattle is also the worst team in the league in terms of strikeouts.

Profar has been on a tear of late for the Padres, going 8/25 in his last seven games with three homers. For the season, he is batting .315, which is the 2nd best mark on the team, and his 14 homers are the best on the team and 13th in the league. The Padres also have Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth, who have 14 homers apiece.

As a team, the Padres are 2nd in the league in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They are also one of the best home run-hitting teams in the league, coming in 7th in the league. San Diego is also one of the best teams in terms of avoiding strikeouts, as they have the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the league.

Free Mariners vs. Padres MLB Pick

Tuesday’s Mariners vs. Padres matchup is an excellent opportunity to jump on Seattle to cover the run line with a multi-run win. Adam Mazur has given up four earned runs in each of his last two starts and with Logan Gilbert on the mound, I see him keeping the Padres lineup in check. I’m going with the Mariners on the run line for Tuesday’s pick.

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