Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners Pick

by | May 16, 2019 | mlb

Minnesota Twins (27-15) vs. Seattle Mariners (22-23), 5/16/19
Time: 10:10 pm ET, Thursday, May 16
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Listed Pitchers: Michael Pineda (2-3, 5.85 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. Erik Swanson (1-4, 6.35, 1.27)
TV: MLB, FS North, ROOT Northwest

Moneyline: Twins -115/Mariners +105
Over/Under: 9.5

The pleasantly surprising Minnesota Twins, leaders of the AL Central here in the early going, ride a 7-3 run into the opener of a four-game weekend series with the Mariners in Seattle Thursday night. Which way are we going for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened Seattle and Swanson at around -110 over Minnesota and Pineda, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then flipped the Twins into -115 favorites, and bumped that total to 9.5.

Minnesota could also be found getting upwards of +130 at sportsbooks like MyBookie, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Twins vs. Mariners Set-Up

Minnesota just took two of three games at home from the Angels, winning Wednesday’s series rubber match 8-7. Just before that the Twins split four games at home with Detroit. So Minnesota is 2-0-1 over its last three series and 7-3 over its last 10 games.

At 27-15 overall the Twinkies lead the AL Central by 4.5 games over second-place Cleveland.

Seattle, meanwhile, just swept a two-game series at home from Oakland, winning Tuesday’s series finale 4-3. The Mariners then had Wednesday off.

However, just before that Seattle got swept three games at Boston giving us an easy cover on the run line, and just before that it lost three of four games to the Yankees in New York. Going back a little further the Mariners are just 1-5-1 over their last seven series and 4-12 over their last 16 games.

So after a great start to this season 22-23 Seattle now sits in second place in the AL West, 7.5 games behind first-place Houston.

This series is the first meeting between these two teams this season. Last year the Mariners took the season series from the Twins five games to one.

Thursday’s Starting Arms

Rookie righty Swanson is 2/5 on quality starts this season, playing Jekyll-and-Hyde as of late. Three starts ago he gave up nine runs – six earned – and 11 hits through four innings against Texas; then he threw six innings of one-hit, shutout ball against Cleveland; but last Friday he got bombed by Boston for seven runs through just 4 2/3 innings of a 14-1 Seattle defeat.

On the season the Mariners are just 1-4 with Swanson.

This will be Swanson’s first-ever start against Minnesota, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

Former Mariner Pineda, by our stringent standards, is 0/8 on quality starts this season. Last Saturday he gave up three runs on three solo homers through six innings of a 5-3 Twins loss to Detroit. And over his last five starts he’s allowed 21 ER and 36 hits through 25 innings.

Minnesota is 3-5 with Pineda this season.

This will be Pineda’s first start against Seattle since 2016, when he was a Yankee, and that’s already a long time ago when it comes to this Mariners lineup.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

Minnesota is batting .259/.327/.495 against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least six runs in five of its last 10 games.

Seattle is batting .244/.320/.470 against RH pitching this season. But this lineup has also scored a total of 19 runs over its last six games.

The Bullpens

  • The Twins bullpen owns a 4.16 ERA this season, along with a 1.44 WHIP.
  • The Mariners bullpen owns a much-too-generous 5.33 ERA and a terrible 1.60 WHIP.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 21-20 in Twins games this season.
  • Overs are a lopsided 30-13 in Mariners games this season.
  • Overs are 12-7 in games played at T-Mobile Park this season.
  • Overs are 4-1 with Swanson this season.
  • The totals are split 4-4 with Pineda this season.
  • Unders played 5-1 in Twins-Mariners games last season.

Free MLB Pick

Pineda is struggling this season and yet he still gets the check-mark in this pitching match-up. Meanwhile, Minnesota also owns edges with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. We’re taking the Twins for our free MLB pick for Thursday.