MLB Best Bets: Pirates vs. Cards 6/12/24

by | Jun 12, 2024 | mlb

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Date: Wednesday, June 12th, 7:45 ET
Location: Busch Stadium
Money Line: Pirates +144/Cardinals -169
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pirates on Wednesday, June 12th at Busch Stadium. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
PIT +144 +1.5 O 8 (-111)
STL -169 -1.5 U 8 (-110)

Wednesday’s matchup between the Pirates and Cardinals gets started at 7:45 PM ET from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO. The Cardinals are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -169 compared to the Pirates at +144. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

This NL Central showdown features Bailey Falter for the Pirates and Sonny Gray for the Cardinals. The Pirates are 32-34 this season, while the Cardinals are just one game back at 31-34. BSMW will be televising this one.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Projected Lineup

Player Batting Order Position
Andrew McCutchen 1 DH
Bryan Reynolds 2 LF
Connor Joe 3 RF
Oneil Cruz 4 SS
Ke’Bryan Hayes 5 3B
Nick Gonzales 6 2B
Rowdy Tellez 7 1B
Yasmani Grandal 8 C
Jack Suwinski 9 CF
Bailey Falter SP

Player Batting Order Position
Masyn Winn 1 SS
Brendan Donovan 2 LF
Paul Goldschmidt 3 1B
Nolan Arenado 4 3B
Iván Herrera 5 C
Alec Burleson 6 DH
Dylan Carlson 7 RF
Nolan Gorman 8 2B
Michael Siani 9 CF
Sonny Gray SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Pittsburgh Pirates: 32-34 SU / OU 34-31 / Runline 37-29
St. Louis Cardinals: 31-34 SU / OU 28-34 / Runline 32-33

Pittsburgh picked up a 2-1 win over the Cardinals in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates had a late rally, scoring two runs in the 9th inning to pick up the win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -145 on the money line.

St. Louis wasted a good outing from Miles Mikolas, as he gave up just one run in seven innings of work for the Cardinals. Ryan Helsley took the loss. Colin Holderman got the win out of the bullpen for the Pirates as Paul Skenes went 6 1/3 innings, giving up no runs.

Nolan Gorman hit the game’s only home run while going 1/4 with two RBIs, but it came in a losing effort. Alec Burleson also had a three-hit game for St. Louis.

Pirates Records & Recent Play

Pittsburgh is 32-34 overall this season, putting them 2nd in the NL Central. They are 6.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Pirates have gone 8-7 in divisional games this year, and they have won two straight series.

At home, the Pirates are 16-17 this year, and they are also 16-17 on the road. This season, the Pirates are 10-15 as the favorite and 22-19 as the underdog. Pittsburgh has won two straight games as the underdog, and they are 8-9-4 in series this year.

When the Pirates win, they tend to do so by a comfortable margin, as their average run differential in victories is +3.0. However, when they lose, they lose big, with an average run differential of -3.4. Despite their overall run differential of -0.3, they have been a profitable team to bet on the run line, going 37-29. They have been especially good on the run line as the underdog, going 29-12, including covering in their last two games as the underdog.

The Pirates are on the road against the Cardinals today, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The combined run average for Pittsburgh games this season is 8.5 runs, and their over/under record is 34-31. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their record is 9-9. So far this season, 42.4% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, while 30.3% have had lines set lower than 8 runs.

Cardinals Records & Recent Play

St. Louis is 31-34 overall and trails the Brewers by seven games in the NL Central. The Cardinals are 5-8 in divisional games and lost the first game of this series vs. the Pirates. Currently, they are 4-6 over their last 10 games.

At home, the Cardinals are 15-15 this year compared to a 16-19 mark on the road. As the favorite, St. Louis is 16-15 and 15-19 as the underdog. So far, they are an even 11-11 as the home favorite. The Cardinals’ overall series record is 10-10-1 this year.

When the St. Louis Cardinals win, they win big, with an average run margin of 2.5 runs per victory. However, in their losses, they lose by an average of 3.5 runs. The Cardinals have a run line record of 32-33 on the season, and they are 16-14 against the run line at home. Their overall run differential is -0.6 runs per game, with a -0.4 run differential in home games and a -0.9 run differential on the road. They are currently on a two-game run line win streak at home.

Today’s over/under line of 8 runs for the St. Louis Cardinals’ home game against the Pittsburgh Pirates is right in line with their season average. The Cardinals’ games have averaged 8.5 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 28-34. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone 4-7-1. Overall, 53.8% of their games have had over/under lines set above 8 runs, and they are currently on a two-game under streak.

Pitching Matchup

Pittsburgh is sending left-hander Bailey Falter to the mound today vs. the Cardinals. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 3-3 with a 3.69 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Falter has a WHIP of 1.04 and opponents are batting .213 this season. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up five earned runs in four innings of work vs. the Dodgers. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins came vs. the Braves, where he pitched 7 1/3 innings and gave up three earned runs.

Sonny Gray will be looking to bounce back from a couple of rough outings as he gets the start for the Cardinals today. The right-hander has lost his last two starts, most recently giving up three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work against the Rockies. Gray has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 7-4 to go along with a 3.21 ERA. Opposing batters have hit .195 off Gray this season, and he has a BB/9 figure of 2.77 compared to 11.97 strikeouts per nine innings. So far, he has turned in four quality starts.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Offense Outlook

Over his last five games, Oneil Cruz has gone 5/18 with four runs and two home runs. For the season, Cruz is batting .243 with a team-high nine home runs. Bryan Reynolds is also a significant power threat, as he is 2nd on the team with eight homers and is batting .263. Reynolds comes into the game with a nine-game hitting streak.

As a team, the Pirates are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. They have been slightly better on the road, averaging 4.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting just .230 and have the 17th-ranked on-base percentage in the league. So far, the Pirates have been a below-average home run hitting team.

For the season, the Cardinals are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. At home, they have been slightly better at 4.1 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .235, which is 13th in the MLB, and their team on-base percentage of .306 is also 13th in the league. Their collective slugging percentage of .371 is 20th in the league.

St. Louis is led in home runs by Nolan Gorman, who has gone deep 15 times this season, which is 7th in the league. However, he is batting just .223 for the season. Alec Burleson has been a bright spot for the Cardinals, as he is hitting .283 for the season and has gone 9/28 in his last seven games with two homers.

Free Pirates vs. Cardinals MLB Pick

Bailey Falter was tagged for five earned runs in just four innings vs. the Dodgers in his last start, but across his five starts in May, he gave up a total of just eight earned runs and had a batting average allowed of only .193. With the Pirates’ money line odds sitting at +144, I like them to pick up the win today.

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