Orioles vs. Mariners Analysis & Free Pick

by | Last updated Jun 28, 2022 | mlb

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners

Date: Tuesday, June 28th, 10:10 ET

Location: T-Mobile Park


Money Line: Orioles +139 / Mariners -165 (Everygame – Use bonus code ROOKIE200 for a 200% bonus on your deposit of only $25!)

Total Line: 7.5


Baltimore: Dean Kremer (2-1, 1.71)

Seattle: Robbie Ray (6-6, 4.07)

Orioles Projected Lineup

Tyler Nevin 3B

Jorge Mateo SS

Anthony Santander LF

Austin Hays RF

Adley Rutschman C

Richie Martin 2B

Ryan Mountcastle 1B

Cedric Mullins CF

Trey Mancini 1B

Dean Kremer P

Mariners Projected Lineup

Justin Upton LF

Adam Frazier LF

Taylor Trammell CF

Cal Raleigh C

Eugenio Suárez 3B

Kevin Padlo 1B

Jesse Winker LF

J.P. Crawford SS

Julio Rodriguez CF

Robbie Ray P


Baltimore Orioles: 35-40-0 SU / OU 34-39-2 / Run Line W/L 48-27-0
Seattle Mariners: 34-41-0 SU / OU 35-38-2 / Run Line W/L 37-38-0

The Seattle Mariners host the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday, June 28th at T-Mobile Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 10:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Seattle as the favorite (-165), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

In Baltimore’s last game vs the Mariners, the Orioles came away with a 9-2 win. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 2 runs on 3 hits. The Orioles lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 12 hits, leading to 9 runs. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 130.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Orioles and Mariners combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 7.5 runs. The Orioles now have an over-under record of 34-39-2.

In the Orioles’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 4-1. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +17. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.15 runs per game. But, over this stretch this figure has bumped up to 5.2 So far, Baltimore has won over half of their 24 series played, going 11-9-4.

Seattle will look to move on from a 7-run loss to the Orioles, falling by the score of 9-2. On their way to giving up 9 runs, the Mariners staff allowed 12 hits. With their 3 hits, the Mariners could only plate 2 runners. Seattle came away with a loss, despite being favored on the moneyline (-141.0). For the season, the team has been favored in 34 games, winning at a rate of 53.0%. The Mariners and Orioles went over the run total line set at 7.5 runs. Against the run total, Seattle is just 35-38-2.

Across their last 5 contests, the Mariners are above .500, going 3-2. They have managed to pick up these wins despite having a negative run differential over their last 5 games (-4). Seattle has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 2.8 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 3.93. Seattle has a below .500 series record of just 10-13-1.


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Pitching Matchup

Dean Kremer gets the start for the Orioles, with an overall record of 2-1. In his previous outings, Kremer has lasted an average of 5.25 innings, putting together an ERA of just 1.71. Across his previous starts, opposing teams have put together a batting average of 0.262. This season, Kremer has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.43 per 9 innings. Kremer is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.5 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 16.0%. Throughout the season, Kremer has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.14 per contest.

Robbie Ray gets the start for the Mariners, with an overall record of 6-6. Ray gets the start with an ERA of 4.07. On average, he has lasted 6.01 innings per appearance. Ray will take the mound with a BA allowed of 0.226. Despite a strong batting average allowed, Ray is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 1.4 homers per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Robbie Ray is averaging 6.47, on a strikeout percentage of 26.0%. Command has been a problem for Ray, as he is giving up 3.08 walks per outing.

Baltimore vs Seattle History

Today’s matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners will be their 5th meeting of the season. So far, the teams have each won 2 times. The over-under record in this series sits at 4-0. The average run total in these games is 7.14 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 6.25 runs. Seattle won last year’s head to head series, grabbing 4 wins to 3. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 2-5, with the average run total being 7.14 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.29 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle’s last 9 games at home
  • Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s matchup between Baltimore and Seattle, the Mariners are the heavy favorite to pick up the win. However, I recommend taking the Orioles to keep things rolling, as Dean Kramer has been excellent in his first 4 outings. In his last 2 appearances, Kramer hasn’t given up a run across 11 2/3 innings. I like the Orioles on the moneyline.

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