MLB Baseball Picks

Webb’s sinker sits at 92.1 mph with a .363 xwOBA — a contact-inviting profile that runs directly into Toronto’s better right-handed bats. The moneyline has Toronto at -112, a price that implies roughly 53% win probability when the pitching profiles point closer to 64%. The pick is inside.

Lorenzen vs. Wrobleski is a clearer mismatch than the posted 9.5 total implies. The under is priced at -105 — nearly flat — despite one starter carrying a 2.80 ERA and the other a 6.91. The breakdown is inside.

Imai’s 6.14 ERA and -0.36 WAR in 48.1 innings represent one of the more damaging starter profiles on the mid-July slate — and he’s drawing a Washington lineup that hunts fastballs. The moneyline has this one priced at -118, far short of the -130 to -135 range the starter differential would justify. The full read is inside.

The bullpen gap between these two teams runs alongside a deeper starter mismatch — Seattle’s relief corps is missing multiple arms to injury, leaving Woo with a thin safety net behind him. The Marlins are sitting at -116 on the moneyline despite a starter with a 9-1 record and a 2.96 WAR that dwarfs his counterpart’s 0.97. The breakdown is inside.

deGrom’s 0.993 WHIP versus Soriano’s 1.32 is a traffic-suppression gap the flat juice at -105 on the under isn’t fully accounting for. An Angels lineup that has scored 8 runs over three games — without Trout, Moncada, or Rodriguez — walks into Globe Life Field facing one of the cleanest command profiles in the league. The edge is explained inside.

San Diego’s .671 OPS ranks second-fewest among contenders, and Arizona isn’t far behind at .692 — two offenses that haven’t been scoring at a rate to clear 8.5 on a consistent basis. The total sits at 8.5 with the under at -105, inside a Petco Park that carries a 0.92 park factor. Find out which way this one goes.

Tropicana Field’s 0.95 park factor turns Warren’s baserunner problem into a compounding one — 20 defensive errors in 15 games means every extra runner is magnified in this dome. Tampa Bay sits at -118 against a projected 4.2-4.2 split, a number that doesn’t account for the WHIP gap or a Yankees lineup that whiffed 17 times Monday. See how this one plays out.

Atlanta’s .725 team OPS is below average at full strength — and tonight’s lineup is further hollowed out by three IL absences. The total is posted at 8 with the Under already juiced to -114, meaning the books have done the same Skenes math everyone else has. Find out which way this one goes.

Ginn vs. Skubal is a clearer mismatch than the posted total of 8 at -105 implies. Skubal’s 1.1 BB/9 and a 43.6% whiff changeup face an Oakland lineup already down Soderstrom, Rooker, Wilson, and Langeliers — the market may still be anchoring to Oakland’s full-roster baseline. The edge is explained inside.

Boyd’s four-seamer at 92.7 mph with a .377 xwOBA against is the kind of primary offering that keeps Baltimore’s middle of the order dangerous. The total sits at 9.5 with the Over priced at +100 and the Under at -122 — the market has already shaded this number, yet the projected combined output still falls short of the line. The analysis is inside.