San Diego Padres vs. LA Dodgers Game 2 Pick

by | Oct 7, 2020 | mlb

San Diego Padres (37-23) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (43-17), 10/7/20

Time: 9:08 pm ET Wednesday, Oct. 7

Where: Globe Life Field

TV: FS 1

Listed Pitchers: Zach Davies (7-3, 2.73) vs. Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.16)

Moneyline: Padres +180/Dodgers -195 (BAS - 5Dimes has left the U.S. market but you can still bet on games at -105 odds here!)

Over/Under: 8

After taking the opener of this best-of-five National League divisional-round series Tuesday night, the Dodgers shoot for a 2-0 lead when the teams meet again on Wednesday night on neutral turf in Arlington. Los Angeles went hitless for the first five innings Tuesday, then broke through without the aid of the long ball. Can the Dodgers put San Diego on the brink of elimination? Can the Padres pull this series even? And how are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

MLB’s playoff betting odds opened Los Angeles at around -195 for this Game 2 over San Diego, with an over/under of eight runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

The Dodgers could also be found “getting” around +100, giving the run and a half on the run line.

Padres vs. Dodgers Set-Up

Los Angeles is the home team for the first two games of this series, based on the better regular-season records.

LA grabbed Game 1 of this NLDS Tuesday night 5-1. That game was tied at 1-1 through five innings when the Dodgers manufactured four runs in the sixth on four hits, two walks, and a wild pitch. Los Angeles then hung on from there, getting five innings of one-hit, shutout ball from its bullpen, for the victory.

Los Angeles won Tuesday as a -180 favorite on the MLB betting odds and covered against the run line at a price of +110. Tuesday’s game also played under a total of 9.5 runs.

The Dodgers took the season series from the Padres this year six games to four.

LA advanced to this NLDS by sweeping two games from Milwaukee in a wild-card series last week by scores of 4-2 and 3-0.

San Diego advanced to this NLDS by taking two of three games from St. Louis last week, clinching with a 4-0 Game 3 victory last Friday.

Game 2’s Starting Arms

Lefty Kershaw, by our strict standards, is 7/11 on quality starts this season and three for his last four. Last Thursday, in Game 2 of that wild-card series against the Brewers, Kershaw blazed eight scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and one walk, with 13 strikeouts, in that 3-0 LA victory. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed eight runs – only five earned – and 20 hits through 25 1/3 innings, with one walks and 31 whiffs.

On the season, the Dodgers are 9-2 with Kershaw, 3-0 over his last three starts.

In his only start this season against the Padres, three weeks ago at Petco Park, Kershaw gave up three runs and five hits through 6 1/3 innings, with zero walks and nine K’s, although Los Angeles eventually lost that game 7-2.

Davies is just 3/13 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last five. Last Thursday, in Game 2 of that NL wild-card series against the Cardinals, he allowed four runs and five hits through just two innings, although San Diego eventually won that game 11-9. And over his last five starts, he’s given up 13 runs and 28 hits, including six home runs, through 23 innings, with seven walks and 24 strikeouts.

For the season, the Padres are 9-4 with Davies, but only 2-2 over his last four starts.

Over two starts against the Dodgers, this season, Davies allowed five runs and 12 hits through 13 innings. San Diego lost both those games.

Game 2 Batting Splits

The Padres batted .250 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .324 team OBP and a .437 team slugging percentage.

Los Angeles batted .259/.338/.498 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top five in the Majors in this split.

The Bullpens

The San Diego bullpen posted a 4.38 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP this season, along with a 2.84 K/BB ratio.

The Dodgers pen put up a 2.74 ERA and an ML-best 1.04 WHIP this season, along with a 3.44 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those help this unit rank as probably the best bullpen in Baseball at the moment.

MLB Betting Trends

  • San Diego played 10-10 against left-handed starters this season.
  • Los Angeles played 30-12, second-best in the Majors, against right-handed starters this season.
  • San Diego is 8-7 this season as an underdog on the MLB betting lines.
  • Los Angeles is 27-9 this season when favored by -190 or more.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 32-30 in Padres games this season.
  • Unders are 29-27 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Unders are 6-5 in Padres-Dodgers games this season.
  • Overs are 14-13 in games played at Globe Life Field this season.

Free MLB Pick

We give Kershaw the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and Los Angeles owns advantages in the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. So we like the Dodgers here. Also, all nine of LA’s wins with Kershaw this season have come by at least two runs. So we’ll chase the better price and play the Dodgers against the run line. Bet your MLB playoffs picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook!

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