San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 4 Odds & Total Pick

by | Oct 22, 2022 | mlb

>San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Saturday October 22nd, 07:45 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
Money Line: Padres -110 / Phillies -110
Total Line: 8.5


San Diego: Mike Clevinger (7-7, 4.33)
Philadelphia: Bailey Falter (6-4, 3.86)

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Trent Grisham CF
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Juan Soto RF
Wil Myers 1B
Manny Machado 3B
Austin Nola C
Josh Bell 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Mike Clevinger P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Brandon Marsh CF
Jean Segura 2B
Nick Castellanos RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Bryson Stott SS
J.T. Realmuto C
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Bailey Falter P


San Diego Padres: 89-73-0 SU / OU 80-86-6 / Run Line W/L 79-93-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75-0 SU / OU 87-79-5 / Run Line W/L 88-83-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the San Diego Padres on Saturday October 22nd at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:45 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-110), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

San Diego heads into today’s action looking to rebound from a 4-2 loss to Philadelphia. On their way to giving up 4 runs, the Padres staff allowed 9 hits. The Padres ended the game with just 2 runs on 7 hits. The Padres suffered the loss, despite being favored at -125.0. Through 123 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 57%. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. This outcome pushed San Diego’s over-under record further below .500 at 80-86-6.

In the Padres’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +2. San Diego has put together this record, despite averaging just 3.4 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.34. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 54 series played, going 28-19-7.

Philadelphia is coming off a 2 run win over the Padres (4-2). In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Padres to 2 runs and 7 hits. At the plate, the Phillies only came through for 4 runs on 9 hits. Despite being the underdogs, getting 105.0 on the moneyline, the Phillies still picked up the win. So far, the team has gone into 60 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 47.0%. Combined, the Phillies and Padres’ run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Philadelphia still has an above .500 over-under record at (87-79-5).

In their last 5 games, the Phillies have put together a record of 4-1. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +14. Philadelphia is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 5.6 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.62. On the season, Philadelphia has won more than half of their series, going 27-22-5.

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Pitching Matchup

Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Padres, with an overall record of 7-7. So far, Clevinger has put together an ERA of 4.33. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.96 innings. So far, Clevinger has a batting average allowed of .231. Home runs have been an issue for Clevinger, as he is allowing an average of 1.58 per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Mike Clevinger has a strong strikeout percentage of 19.0%, including a per-game average of 3.96. Command has been a problem for Clevinger, as he is giving up 2.76 walks per outing.

Philadelphia will roll with Bailey Falter (6-4) as their starter. Falter gets the start with an ERA of 3.86. On average, he has lasted 4.2 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of .263. Home runs have been an issue for Falter, as he is allowing an average of 1.71 per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Bailey Falter is averaging 3.7, on a strikeout percentage of 21.0%. Throughout the season, Falter has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.82 per contest.

San Diego vs Philadelphia History

For the season, the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies will be playing their 11th game of the season. Philadelphia holds the edge in the series at 6-4. The over-under record in this series sits at 3-7. The average run total in these games is 8.33 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.5 runs.

Betting Trends

  • Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
  • Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 playoff games.
  • Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday games.
  • Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 playoff games.

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

We’re expecting a lot of runs today in Philly! Take the OVER!

Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Runs