Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Odds & Predictions

by | Last updated Aug 5, 2022 | mlb

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins

Date: Friday August 5th, 08:10 ET

Location: Target Field

TV: Bally Sports North

Money Line: Blue Jays -125 / Twins +115 (Everygame – See our 200% bonus on your deposit of only $25!)

Total Line: 9.0


Toronto: José Berríos (8-4, 4.96)
Minnesota: Tyler Mahle (5-7, 4.14)

Blue Jays Projected Lineup

Matt Chapman 3B
Whit Merrifield 2B
Teoscar Hernández RF
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF
Danny Jansen C
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
Alejandro Kirk C
George Springer CF
Bo Bichette SS
José Berríos P

Twins Projected Lineup

Gary Sánchez C
Nick Gordon CF
Jose Miranda 1B
Jake Cave LF
Gio Urshela 3B
Byron Buxton CF
Jorge Polanco 2B
Luis Arraez 1B
Carlos Correa SS
Tyler Mahle P


Toronto Blue Jays: 59-46-0 SU / OU 54-50-1 / Run Line W/L 48-57-0
Minnesota Twins: 55-50-0 SU / OU 50-47-8 / Run Line W/L 48-57-0

The Minnesota Twins host the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday August 5th at Target Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Toronto as the favorite (-125), with an OU line set at 9.0.

Recent Form

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to pick up another big win after they defeated the Twins by a score of 9-3. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Twins to 3 runs on 3 hits. The Blue Jays lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 13 hits, leading to 9 runs. Heading into their last game, Toronto was the betting favorite at -130.0. Through 86 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 59.0%. This game went over the posted over-under line of 8.0 runs. So far, Toronto has an above .500 over-under record of 54-50-1.

In the Blue Jays’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 4-1. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +12. In their last 5 contests, Toronto is averaging 4.6 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.85. So far, Toronto has won over half of their 34 series played, going 18-11-5.

Minnesota will look to move on from a 6-run loss to the Blue Jays, falling by the score of 9-3. Minnesota’s pitching staff gave up 13 hits, leading to 9 runs for the Blue Jays. With their 3 hits, the Twins could only plate 3 runners. This loss came as no surprise, as Minnesota came into the game as the underdog, getting 110.0. In their 35 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 34.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Twins and Blue Jays combined to surpass the line of 8.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 50-47-8.

In their last 5 contests, the Twins have just 2 wins, going 2-3. During this time, the team has a run differential of -4. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 3.4 runs over their last 5 game. On the season, Minnesota has won more than half of their series, going 16-13-5.

Pitching Matchup

Toronto will roll with José Berríos (8-4) as their starter. To date, Berríos has an ERA of 4.96 while lasting an average of 5.43 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.272. Home runs have been an issue for Berríos, as he is allowing an average of 1.74 per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, José Berríos has a strong strikeout percentage of 22.0%, including a per game average of 5.05. Command has been a problem for Berríos, as he is giving up 2.13 walks per outing.

Minnesota will roll with Tyler Mahle (5-7) as their starter. Mahle gets the start with an ERA of 4.14. On average, he has lasted 5.48 innings per appearance. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.226 against Mahle. Mahle is allowing home runs at a rate of 1.04 per 9 innings. Per game, Tyler Mahle is averaging 6.0, on a strikeout percentage of 26.0%. Mahle comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 3.36 free passes per outing.

Toronto vs Minnesota History

For the season, the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins will be playing their 5th game of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Toronto and Minnesota each have 2 wins. The over-under record in this series sits at 4-0. The average run total in these games is 7.57 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 5.75 runs. Last season, Toronto picked up the series win, 4 games to 3. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 1-6, with the average run total being 7.57 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.57 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto’s last 8 games
  • Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing Toronto
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins Prediction

Leading into Friday’s matchup between Toronto and Minnesota, the Blue Jays are the slight favorite on the moneyline. Even though Tyler Mahle has been pitching well and is making his first start for Minnesota, I expect the Jays to come away with the win. Jose Berrios has been excellent of late, with Toronto winning each of their last 6 games with him on the mound.

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