Hollywood Casino 400 Race Odds, Analysis, Picks
Date: Sunday, October 24th, 2021
Track: Kansas Speedway
Time: 3 pm ET
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
As predicted, Kyle Larson dominated Texas on Sunday to take home his 8th win of the season. It was a good weekend for Hendrick, with William Byron coming in 2nd place after a very solid run through the entire race. He didn’t have quite the speed that Larson did, but that didn’t stop him from a great finish. Chase Elliott also finished inside the top 10, with a 7th place finish. Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick rounded out the top 5 spots. Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, and Daniel Suarez finished the rest of the top 10. The drivers still have their work cut out for themselves if they want to make it into the final round of 4. Kyle Larson is obviously the first one to secure his spot, although he would’ve easily pointed his way into the final round without a win. There are many that are still battling for the final three spots, though. What they don’t need to see is “the big one” happening on an intermediate track like it did at Texas.
It was an interesting race, to say the least. One of the most interesting parts was that large wreck relatively early in the race in stage 1 that took out a large number of drivers. It was akin to seeing a wreck like at Talladega or Daytona. It’s rare that we see that such a large catastrophe at an intermediate track. But honestly, if you think about it, it’s kind of odd that more wrecks like this don’t happen with the speeds that we see at Texas. Bubba Wallace was the culprit. He got loose mid-pack and wiped out, taking quite a few other drivers with him. His interview was pretty honest, so I give him credit there. He took accountability for the wreck and acknowledged that he just didn’t have it together. The irony is that he is coming off a win at Talladega from just a few short weeks ago, but this speedy track got him. I’m wondering if the resin or lack thereof caused any of the hardships. Either way, there were many mishaps along the way. Joey Logano’s engine literally blew up. He had a really rough and rare day for Penske, with the engine failure throwing him out of contention for even finishing the race. Another notable driver, Martin Truex Jr., crashed out of the race, making his championship berth that much harder.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers are heading to Kansas. This is the second time this year at this track, with Kyle Busch being the defending winner from the May race. Kansas is a fun track. It’s not a cookie-cutter intermediate but instead a 1.5-mile asphalt tri-oval. It has 17 to 20 degrees of banking through the turns and 9 to 11 degrees on the front stretch. The backstretch is minimal at just 5 degrees. Coming off racing from Texas, it shouldn’t be too big of an adjustment for the drivers, but we are likely going to see more issues with tires here than at Texas simply because of the banking and configuration. There will still be lots of green flag racing, but pit strategy will also be a big factor here. We’ve seen where that can make or break a race. Tires or no tires? Top off fuel or not? Those are the things that these teams can’t mess up this weekend. That being said, the drivers need to be flawless as well. With the final track of this round being a short track, this is the safest place left to get a solid points day or a win. Short tracks and superspeedways are never guarantees of anything.
Odds and Value Picks
When we think about our potential winners this weekend, it is so tough not to pick Kyle Larson again. Honestly, I could pick him for pretty much the entire season and have a good average for the year. That being said, I think that although he has nothing to lose, a lot of other drivers are desperate at this point to get a win to earn their spot in the championship race. One of those drivers, in particular, has a good shot at this place. Although he doesn’t have the best average finish here at around 15th, Kyle Busch is the defending winner of the spring race. Knowing that he basically has to win either here or Martinsville, you better believe that he’s going to give it everything he has. He’s ready to make some moves and move some people in order to get into that final four, if I had to guess. That’s just the way Busch is. They don’t call him “Rowdy” for nothing. Although Martinsville is statistically a better track for him in terms of finishes, he’s got a couple of wins at Kansas and can certainly drive away with a win when he needs it most. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Kansas.
- Favorite: Kyle Busch +600 Bet YOUR pick to win the race and grab a 50% real cash bonus at an online sportsbook where your credit card WILL work for deposits and where you’ll receive a rebate on EVERY bet you make; win, lose or draw! Special Offer: We’ll send you $10 in bitcoin if you sign up at Bovada through this special link (new accounts only) with a deposit of $100 or more! Email firstname.lastname@example.org with your Bovada account number (not password). You must have a bitcoin exchange to produce an address for us to send you the BTC!
- Mid-Range Pick: William Byron +900
- Dark Horse: Tyler Reddick +2200
Tyler Reddick finished 7th here in May. He only has a total of 4 starts with RCR here, with 2 of those being top 10 finishes. With the way that he’s been running recently and no championship on the line, Reddick can use this as an opportunity to really see what his team has at this point. I think that we are going to continue to see some strong runs from him and his team as the season closes out. William Byron is in the same boat. He doesn’t have anything to lose at this point, as he’s also outside of championship dreams this year. With 4 top 10 finishes in 7 starts with Hendrick, he’s consistently getting better. I feel like Byron is still in a learning curve with Hendrick. He’s a young driver but riddled with talent. It’s not always the Kyle Larson show. Byron is proving to be an integral part of the HMS garage. They will all be chasing the Gibbs drivers this weekend, though. Martin Truex is in a must-win situation at this point. He’s currently sitting in 7th and 22 points below the cut-off line. Here’s a look at your top 8 as we head to Kansas this weekend:
- Kyle Larson
- Ryan Blaney
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Busch
- Chase Elliott
- Brad Keselowski
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Joey Logano
Logano must fight the biggest battle with 43 points separating him from the top 4 drivers. Truex is 22 points back. Keselowski will have to make up 15 points, and Elliott is 8 points below the line. Kyle Busch is barely hanging on, and that’s why I think that he will be hard to beat this weekend. Kyle Larson is going to be tough also, but when Busch needs to win, he seems to find a way to make it happen. My hope is that he does it without driving dirty or being a bad sport, both of which we have only a very slight chance of avoiding. That said, although it’s another intermediate track, we are sure to see some pretty tough racing out there this Sunday. Stay tuned as the drivers battle it out with only three races to go until we call 2021 done! Bet your NASCAR picks FREE this week by signing up for a new account at MyBookie Sportsbook, using bonus code PREDICT100 at registration and then depositing $100 to $300! They’ll credit you with a dollar for dollar matching bonus!