Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors Predictions 11/12/21

by | Nov 12, 2021 | nba

Chicago Bulls (8-3 SU, 8-3-0 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (10-1 SU, 7-3-1 ATS)
When: Friday, Nov. 12th, 2021, 10:00 pm (ET)
Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Point Spread: CHI +5.5/GSW -5.5 (Opened at -5 at BetNow)
Total: 221.5 (Opened at 221.5)
Money Line: CHI +176/GSW -217
Power Rating: GSW -6

Probable Starting Lineups

Chicago Bulls: PG Lonzo Ball, SG Zach LaVine, SF DeMar DeRozan, SF Javonte Green, C Tony Bradley (Next on Depth Chart behind Vucevic) Could see Alex Caruso in starting lineup should Chicago decide to run a small lineup.
Golden State Warriors: PG Steph Curry, SG Jordan Poole, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green (Questionable) Andre Iguodala would be expected to start if Green is inactive, C Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Chicago Bulls: C Nikola Vucevic *Out* (Covid), F Patrick Williams *Out* (Wrist), G Coby White *Out* (Shoulder)

Golden State Warriors: F Draymond Green *Questionable* (Thigh), G Damion Lee *Questionable* (Hip), G Klay Thompson *Out* (Achilles), C James Wiseman *Out* (Knee)

Recent Form

The Chicago Bulls enter Friday’s game with an 8-3 record. Chicago is coming off two big wins this week at home. Monday night, the Bulls took it to the Nets in a 23-point win and Wednesday night over the Mavericks 117-107. As it currently stands, the Bulls are the second-best team in the east behind the Wizards. The Chicago offense is led by DeRozan and LaVine, who are both averaging 26 points a game. The Bulls average 109.6 PPG offensively and give up 102.4 PPG on defense, which is the 3rd best defense in the league. The team’s 7.2-point differential is also 3rd best in the NBA.

No team has had a more impressive start to the season than the Golden State Warriors with a 10-1 record. The Warriors end their eight-game homestand Friday after a near-perfect 6-1 stretch in their last seven. Steph Curry had his first 50-point game of the season on Monday over the Hawks and leads the team averaging 27.4 PPG. As a team, the Warriors are averaging a league-best 115.9 PPG and have scored 120 points or more in their last four games. Defensively, the Warriors have the second-best defense, giving up 102.3 PPG. Golden State’s 13.6-point differential is also the best in the NBA.

Bulls Face Tough West Coast Stretch

After a short three-game homestand, the Bulls start their five-game road trip in San Francisco against the Warriors. Chicago is off to an impressive start to their 2021 campaign flexing a 3-0 record vs. the Western Conference, but just a year ago, the team struggled against the west with a 10-20 record. To add to their difficulty for the road trip, the team will be without center Nikola Vucevic who just tested positive for Covid and will miss ten days. This means that the Bulls will be without a big part of their defense when they need it most against the high-scoring west teams. I don’t see the Bulls going winless on this stretch, but against the Warriors offense, who has been unstoppable. I see them taking the loss Friday night.

Warriors Stay Hot

With ten wins through their first 11 games, the Golden State Warriors are unarguably the hottest team in the NBA. Steph Curry is making an early case for his third MVP. The Warriors offense has only gotten better as the season progresses and has a chance to make a statement on Friday against one of the best teams out of the east. Golden State rides a six-game win streak, winning each game by double digits, and are 5-0-1 ATS in that stretch as well. While their offense has made it easy to win games, the Warriors defense has played lights out in the second half of their games. The Warriors give up 45.5 second-half points through 11 games, with the best third quarter and second-best fourth quarter opponent PPG average. Even though the second half is when the defense comes alive, the offense ranks first with 32.5 first-quarter points per game. The Warriors offense is managing to put up these numbers despite being without Klay Thompson. Thompson is expected to take the court towards the end of the month, so should the Warriors keep their current pace, the team is only going to get better with him. Friday night will be a fun game of two of the league’s best offenses, but in the end, Curry’s Warriors will be too much for the Bulls.

Warriors Have Bulls Number

Even though we witness the Bulls and Warriors just twice a year, there has been a trend for the past few years’ worth noting, and that is the Warriors eight-game win streak over the Bulls, dating back to the 2017 season. Over that stretch, the Warriors have had an average of an 18.6-point margin of victory. The closest win was by two points while the largest was forty-nine. The Bulls have a far better team than years past, so we’ll see a closer game than years past. Unfortunately for Chicago, the Warriors haven’t depleted their roster. The Warriors are developing some young talent, and as for Steph Curry, he ages like a fine wine and has only been better. Look for the Warriors to move their streak to nine games over the Bulls. Maybe when the Bulls host the Warriors in January, we’ll see the streak come to an end.

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The Historicals

As mentioned, the Warriors hold an eight-game winning streak over the Bulls. Their most recent contest in March ended in a 116-102 final.

How the Public is Betting the Bulls vs. Warriors

65% are betting the Warriors to cover the spread.
66% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 221.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Chicago Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.
  • The Chicago Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their previous four games against a team with a winning home record.
  • The Chicago Bulls are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games in Golden State.
  • The Golden State Warriors are 5-0-1 ATS in their previous six games as a favorite.
  • The Golden State Warriors are 3-0-1 ATS following an ATS win.
  • Under is 10-2 in the Bulls’ last 12 games as an underdog.
  • Under is 8-3 in the Warriors’ previous 11 games as a favorite.
  • Under is 7-3 in the Warriors’ last ten games overall.

Collin’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Friday night’s game will be full of fireworks as two of the NBA’s best teams collide. The Bulls come into hostile territory against a scary Warriors team that gets better every time they step on the floor. Golden State’s offense will prove to be too much for the Bulls as they start their long road trip. Take the Warriors to cover the 5.5-point spread. Despite the recent trends of these teams going under the posted total, I like the over in this game due to the Bulls being without Vucevic and the Warriors most likely being without Draymond Green. Both players leave a hole in their team’s defense, giving opposing offenses more opportunities to score. Take the over on the 221.5 total.