Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Prediction ATS 11/17/21

by | Nov 17, 2021 | nba

Dallas Mavericks (9-4 SU, 5-8-0 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (10-3 SU, 8-5-0 ATS)

When: Wednesday, Nov. 17th, 2021, 10:00 pm (ET)

Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: DAL +7.5/PHX -7.5 (Opened at 7.5)

Total: 215.5 (Opened at 215.5)

Money Line: DAL +268/PHX -336

Power Rating: PHX -11

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Probable Starting Lineups

Dallas Mavericks: PG Jalen Brunson, SG Tim Hardaway, SF Dorian Finney-Smith, PF Kristaps Porzingis, C Dwight Powell

Phoenix Suns:PG Chris Paul, SG Devin Booker, SF Mikal Bridges, PF Jae Crowder, C Deandre Ayton

Key Injuries

Dallas Mavericks: G Luka Doncic *Out* (Ankle), F Maxi Kleber *Out* (Back)

Phoenix Suns: F Frank Kaminsky *Questionable* (Knee), F Dario Saric *Out* (Knee)

Recent Form

The Dallas Mavericks enter Wednesday with a 9-4 record. Dallas has quietly been one of the better teams in the West. Dallas is on a two-game winning streak, and last time on the floor, they had an impressive outing over the Nuggets 111-101. The Mavericks will have to find a way to fill their biggest offensive void, as star guard Luka Doncic will miss some time with an ankle injury. Doncic leads the team with 24.9 PPG and leads the team in assists and rebounds per game. Dallas, despite their admirable 9-4 record, has a very middle-of-the-road stat line as a team. Offensively, the team scores 105.0 PPG and defensively gives up 105.7 PPG. Odd to see a top team in the West currently that has a -0.7-point differential, but Dallas has found a way to win games.

The Phoenix Suns hold a 10-3 record through 13 games and would be the talk of the town if it weren’t for the Golden State Warriors. Phoenix enters Wednesday with a league-best 9-win streak and nearly snapped that streak on Monday with a 99-96 win over the Timberwolves. Devin Booker leads the team with 22.9 PPG, but the Suns share the ball well, as six players are averaging 10 points or more per game. Phoenix is one of the hottest offenses in the league, averaging 111.0 PPG, and gives up 105.5 PPG on defense. The team’s 5.5-point differential is among the top in the NBA as well.

Suns Stay Hot

Phoenix is one of the better teams to start the NBA season. After a slow 1-3 start, the Suns find themselves having yet to lose a game in the month of November. Mind you, many of their games haven’t been close affairs either, as, on their 9-game win streak, their average win margin is 11.7-points. In fact, Monday night’s 99-point offensive performance was their first time under 109 points in their last eight games. Phoenix has played very well at home, having not lost at home since the first week of the season, and looks to continue their impressive stretch over the Mavericks on Wednesday. This game would be a closer line if it weren’t for Dallas taking the floor without Doncic. Taking that into account, as he is the front runner of that Mavericks offense, the Suns will be able to cruise to their 11th win of the year and their 10th straight.

Pace of Play

This matchup Wednesday night will feature two very different styles when it comes to pace of play. The visiting Mavericks run a “big man” lineup with two centers in Porzingis and Powell, which in turn makes them one of the slowest offenses in the league at 100.1 possessions per game. Without Luka Doncic playing, this may slow down their offense even more, as aside from Tim Hardaway, Doncic is one of the more consistent perimeter shooters on the team. Looking at the Phoenix Suns, we see a much faster, spread-the-ball type offense that averages 104.6 possessions a game. Chris Paul is a big part of the Suns offense and is arguably one of the best passers the league has ever seen. With the Phoenix offense rolling the way it is and the Mavericks being without one of the faster players on their team, we should see the Suns have a considerably higher number of possessions, which in turn will put more points on the board.

Mavs Struggle in Phoenix

The Dallas/Phoenix series has been a high offense affair for many years but is more lopsided than you may think. The Suns are riding not just their 9-game streak on the season but a 6-game win streak over the Mavericks. Dating back even further, the Suns have won 13 of the last 16 games between these teams. The last time Dallas won in Phoenix was in 2019, and before that, in 2017. Unfortunately for Dallas, even with the acquisition of Luka Doncic, the Mavericks have found themselves on the short end of the scoreboard more often than they’d like. The stats and trends in this series point to the Suns coming out on top Wednesday, and I don’t see any red flags that would make me think otherwise.

The Historicals

As mentioned above, the Suns hold a six-game win streak in this series. Last year the games between these teams came down to the wire as all three were decided by four points or less. In the last meeting, the final was 109-108, and Chris Paul was the game’s leading scorer with 34 points.

How the Public is Betting the Mavericks vs. Suns

64% are betting the Suns to cover the spread.

65% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 215.5.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Phoenix Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.
  • The Phoenix Suns are 7-1 ATS in their previous eight games.
  • The Phoenix Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.
  • The Dallas Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their previous six games as an underdog and 0-4 in their last four games as a road underdog.
  • The Dallas Mavericks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in Phoenix.
  • The Under is 4-1 in the Suns’ last five games.
  • The Under is 5-0 in the Suns’ last five games following an ATS loss.
  • The Under is 4-1 in these teams last five meetings and 4-1 in the last 5 in Phoenix.

Collin’s Pick to Cover the Spread

This Wednesday night matchup features two of the top teams in the west, but the Suns are playing considerably better. Without Luka Doncic playing for the Mavericks, Dallas is going to struggle to keep up with the hot Phoenix offense. With Dallas running a two-center lineup, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more perimeter shots from the Suns, especially since Paul and Booker are smaller guards. Take the Suns to cover the 7.5-point spread. Bet your Mavericks vs. Suns pick and ALL your NBA predictions for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100 in order to qualify for the special bonus). Click here to sign up now!