Denver at Golden State Game 5 Predictions

by | Apr 27, 2022 | nba

Denver Nuggets (49-37 SU, 38-48-0 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (56-30 SU, 44-38-4 ATS)

When: Wednesday April 27 2022, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, California

TV: ALT

Point Spread: DEN +9/GSW -9 (Opened GSW -8.5 at WagerWeb - Offers NBA teasers up to 20 points!)

Total: 225.5 (Opened at 226)

Money Line: Denver 325/Golden State -418

Power Rating: GSW -9

Probable Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic

Golden State Warriors PG Stephen Curry, SG Klay Thompson, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Denver Nuggets
Michael Porter Jr.: Back (OUT)
Jamal Murray: Knee (OUT)

Golden State Warriors
James Wiseman: Knee (OUT)

The Golden State Warriors host the Denver Nuggets in a Western-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 10:00 PM ET at the Chase Center.

Recent Form

The Denver Nuggets come into this game with an overall record of 48-34, placing them 6th in the Western Conference. So far, Denver is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 25-18. Over the Nuggets’ last five games, they have picked up just 1 win. During this stretch, Denver is averaging 119.0 points per game, 6.0 points more than their season average of 112.7. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 108.0 points per contest. A key reason for Denver’s recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 127.0 points over their previous five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 111.0. In the Denver Nuggets’ most recent game, Denver took down Golden State by a score of 126-121

The Golden State Warriors come into this game with an overall record of 53-29, placing them 3rd in the Western Conference. So far, Golden State is above .500 at home, holding a record of 33-10. The Warriors have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Golden State is averaging 123.0 points per game, 12.0 points more than their season average of 111.5. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 111.0 points per contest. Even though the Warriors have been adding to the win column, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 112.0 points per game, up from Golden State’s usual rate of 105.8. In the Golden State Warriors’ most recent game, the team fell to Denver by a score of 126-121.

Individual Player Analysis

As Denver travels to take on the Golden State Warriors, the Nuggets’ leading scorer is Nikola Jokic. Through 75 games, Jokic is averaging 27 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 41.0% of his games. Against the Warriors, Jokic will need to be on top of his game as Golden State is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 48.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Stephen Curry leads the Warriors in scoring, averaging 25 points across his 64 games. Throughout the season, Curry has outscored his season average in 45.0% of his outings. Given that Denver’s defense has struggled to slow down their opponent’s top scorers, Stephen Curry should be in line for a big performance. So far, the Nuggets have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 51.67% of their games, giving them a rank of 23rd among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

The Nuggets come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 111.3 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Denver is winning at a rate of 63%. These victories are coming by an average margin of 9.0 points. On the other side, the Warriors hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 41 games as the better defensive team, picking up 31 wins (76%).

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors have met up for 8 games. In their last meeting, Denver picked up a 126-121 win.

How the Public is Betting the Nuggets vs Warriors

67% are betting the Warriors against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 225.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
  • Nuggets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
  • Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Golden State Warriors head into this matchup with another chance to close out their series against the Nuggets. Although the Warriors were unable to get the job done in game 4, they have to feel confident with the series returning back to the Bay Area. In addition, they come into the matchup as the 9-point favorites. On the other side, the Nuggets are hoping to stay hot from outside, as they knocked down 15/31 three-points in game 4. Denver also improved their perimeter defense, holding the Warriors to just 12 made shots from downtown. Also helping their cause, was the team’s ability to slow down Jordan Poole (11 points), as he had previously been an X factor for Golden State. Even though I see the Warriors closing out the series, look for the Nuggets to keep this one within the 9 point spread. I recommend taking Denver ATS. Bet your NBA picks for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit up to $500 at Betnow Sportsbook when you use bonus code PREDICTEM when registering for a betting account!