Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Predictions 12/28/21

by | Dec 28, 2021 | nba

Denver Nuggets (16-16 SU, 13-19 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (27-6 SU, 21-10-2 ATS)

When: Tuesday December 28 2021, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center: San Francisco, California

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Point Spread: DEN +6.5/GSW -6.5 (Opened at GSW -6.5 at Bovada - Check out their NBA live betting platform! It’s AMAZING! They also give you a 50% bonus!)

Total: 215.5 (Opened at 215.5)

Money Line: Denver +236/Golden State -300

Power Rating: GSW -7

Probable Starting Lineups

Nuggets: PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic

Warriors: PG Stephen Curry, SG Gary Payton II, SF TBD, PF Otto Porter Jr, C Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Nuggets
Bol Bol: illness (OUT) PJ Dozier: knee (OUT) Aaron Gordon: hamstring (QUESTIONABLE) Markus Howard: knee (QUESTIONABLE) Jamal Murray: knee (OUT) Michael Porter Jr.: back (OUT)

Warriors
Draymond Green: illness (OUT) Andre Iguodala: knee (QUESTIONABLE) Damion Lee: illness (OUT) Moses Moody: illness (OUT) Jordan Poole: illness (OUT) Klay Thompson: knee (QUESTIONABLE) Andrew Wiggins: illness (OUT) James Wiseman: knee (OUT)

Recent Form

The Denver Nuggets enter today’s game, winning five of their past ten games. When playing away from home, Denver has played at a below .500 rate, going 8-10. As the road team, they travel to Golden State with a negative plus-minus of -2.5 points. Overall the Nuggets are ranked 17th among NBA teams in point differential (3.7). Among NBA teams, they have played the 6th toughest schedule.

For bettors, taking the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they have covered in 40.60% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -0.7.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is C Nikola Jokic. So far, Jokic is averaging 25.89 points per game. This output places him 1st among centers. Jokic is also the team’s top rebounder, pulling down 13.81 boards per game. The Nuggets’ best three-point shooter has been Will Barton, connecting on 2.36 shots from downtown per game.

The Golden State Warriors enter today’s game, having won 3 straight games. In their past ten contests, the Warriors have played at an above .500 rate, going 8-2. As they get set to host the Nuggets, Golden State has a positive home plus-minus of 15.6 points. Overall, the Warriors are ranked 1st among NBA teams in point differential (0.9) while playing 15th toughest schedule.

For bettors, taking the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread has been a winning bet as they have covered in 67.70% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is 4.8.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is PG Stephen Curry. So far, Curry is averaging 27.87 points per game while knocking down 5.39 shots from downtown per game. Draymond Green has been in charge of cleaning up the glass, hauling in 7.94 boards per game.

An Eye On Pace

Heading into this game, the Denver Nuggets are the 22nd ranked team in possessions per game. Despite being below average in pace, the team ranks 12th in three-point attempts, averaging 36.7 per game. However, their slow tempo has played a significant role in them ranking 30th in free-throw attempts. On the other side, the Golden Warriors are ranked 14th in pace. So far, they have been extremely reliant on the three-point shot, ranking 3rd at 40.67 attempts per contest.

Key Matchups

Through 32 games, the Denver Nuggets are averaging 106.3 points per game while giving up 106.6. In terms of efficiencies, Nuggets are near the middle of the pack. So far, they rank 17th on defense and 19th on offense. On the year, they have been found more success on shots inside the arc, connecting at a rate of 55%. As for Golden State, the team is one of the best outside shooting units, hitting 41% of their three-point shots.

The Historicals

Tonight’s matchup between the Nuggets and Warriors will be their first meeting of the season. Last year, the two teams met up for three games, with Golden State winning two out of the three contests.

How the Public is Betting the Nuggets vs. Warriors

65% are betting the Nuggets against the spread.

55% are wagering on the game to go Under the posted total of 215.5

More Picks: Tuesday CBB - Notre Dame at Pittsburgh Picks >>>

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on one days rest.
  • Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.
  • Warriors are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up win.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Unfortunately, yet another game will be heavily influenced by player availability due to COVID 19. Between the two teams, Golden State will be missing more of their high-impact players. Even though Steph Curry is one of the league’s best offensive players, I expect the Warriors to struggle defensively without Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, and Draymond Green. Look for Denver to pick up a big road win over Golden State.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

One of my favorite prop bets of the night is to take Nikola Jokic to come away with a triple-double. Given that Jokic is almost a lock to reach double digits and points, this bet hinges on his assists. Look for Denver to have a big night offensively, and with the Nuggets playing through Jokic on nearly every possession, he is a good candidate to reach at least ten assists. Question: Did you know that you could be wagering on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Why pay more when you don’t have to? Learn all about betting on games at reduced juice! It’ll save you THOUSANDS!