NBA Betting Preview: Golden State at Houston – Expert Predictions

Golden State Warriors (27-27 SU, 27-27 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (34-20 SU, 29-25 ATS)

When: Thursday, February 13th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Toyota Center, TX, Houston

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: GS +6.5/Hou -6.5

Total: 216.5

Money Line: Golden State Warriors +200/-240

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Jonathan Kuminga (Out) Ankle

Rockets

• Cody Zeller (Questionable) Not With Team
• Fred VanVleet (Out) Ankle
• Jabari Smith Jr. (Out) Hand

At 8:00 ET, the Houston Rockets (-240) will host the Golden State Warriors (+200) in a Western Conference matchup. The Rockets are favored by 6.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 216.5.

This game will be played at the Toyota Center in Houston and can be seen on NBCS. The Rockets are currently 34-20 and have won two straight games, while the Warriors are 27-27 and sit in 10th place in the Western Conference.

Recent Form

The Warriors fell to 27-27 this season after a 111-107 road loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Golden State, favored by 8 points, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 218 points was well below the 234.5-point line.

Dallas went on an 11-0 run early, taking the score from 7-6 to 18-6. Golden State couldn’t recover despite keeping the game close and outscoring the Mavericks 29-28 in the 4th quarter.

With a 119-111 victory over the Suns on Wednesday, the Rockets improved to 34-20 this season. Houston was favored by 10 points but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 230, surpassing the over/under line of 220.

After falling behind 62-52 due to an 11-0 run by Phoenix, the Rockets rallied in the 4th quarter, outscoring the Suns 35-19 to secure the win.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Golden State has an ATS record of 4-1 in the previous five matchups vs Houston. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +8 points per game in favor of the Warriors. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 220 points in these games.

Analysis

In their 111-107 loss to the Mavericks, the Warriors struggled offensively, shooting 42.7% from the field and hitting just 10 threes at a 28.6% clip. Stephen Curry led the way with 25 points, 11 of which came in the 4th quarter, though he shot 39.1% overall and 30.8% from deep.

Jimmy Butler added 21 points, also scoring 11 in the final period, while Moses Moody and Gary Payton chipped in 14 points each. Moody scored 7 of his points in the 3rd quarter.

Defensively, the Warriors gave up 111 points to the Mavericks, including 32 in the 1st quarter. They tightened up in the 2nd and 3rd, allowing 25 and 26 points, respectively, but couldn’t contain Dallas in the 4th, giving up 28 points.

Golden State allowed the Mavericks to shoot 48% from the field, including 41% from three, where Dallas hit 15 threes. The Warriors sent the Mavericks to the line 15 times, where they made 12 free throws. The Warriors recorded nine steals and six blocks in the game.

Tari Eason led the Rockets to a 119-111 win over the Suns, scoring 25 points on 68.8% shooting, including three threes at 60%. Jalen Green added 22 points despite shooting just 38.1% from the field and 26.7% from deep, where he hit four threes. Dillon Brooks also connected on four threes, finishing with 18 points.

Houston shot 47.4% overall but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting 31% of their threes, making 13 in total. Amen Thompson and Alperen Şengün each scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter, with Şengün adding another 10 in the 4th.

Despite giving up 111 points on 51% shooting, the Rockets’ defense came up big in the 4th quarter, allowing just 19 points to secure the win over the Suns. Houston also had a strong 2nd quarter, holding Phoenix to 23 points.

The Rockets limited the Suns to 10 made threes on 38% shooting from deep. Houston sent Phoenix to the line just 11 times, where they hit nine free throws. The Rockets finished with 10 steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across the Warriors’ last five road games, the team averaged 120 points per game while allowing 116. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 2-3 straight-up.
• Although Houston has a straight-up record of 0-5 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 110 points per game in these games.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Golden State has an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 1-4 straight up.
• Against the spread, the Rockets have put together of 0-5 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 3-2 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Both Houston and Golden State played last night, with the Rockets getting a win while the Warriors fell to the Mavs on the road. Even though the Warriors have the disadvantage of being the road team on back-to-back nights, I still think they keep this one closer than +6.5 vs a Rockets squad that is without Fred VanVleet. I like the Warriors as road dogs tonight.