Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers Game 6 Pick
Golden State Warriors (60-27 SU, 37-49-1 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (50-37 SU, 48-38-1 ATS)
When: Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 10:00 PM ET
Where: Staples Center– Los Angeles, CA
TV: ESPN / TSN
By: Keith Franks, NBA Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: GS -10 / LAC +10
Total: 233
Power Rankings: Los Angeles +4 (Intertops)
Takeaways from Game Five
The Clippers simply will not go away as they won their second game this series on the road in Oakland. This is quite a feat as the playoff atmosphere in “The Town” has been known to be one of the most intimidating and challenging in the NBA. In Game Five, Los Angeles staged a 129-121 upset of the W’s despite closing as a 14.5-point underdog.
How the Public is Betting Game Six
Presently, 59% of the consensus are keen on taking back the points with the Clippers. Despite the lean by the public on Los Angeles, the line itself has moved up by a point from its open of the Warriors -9. In Over/Under markets, a heavy steam move has taken place on the Under as the line dropped by three points from an opening number of 235.5 to its present position of 232.5.
The Historical / Betting Trends
In Los Angeles in particular, the Warriors have been profitable to backers as they are 6-2 ATS in the last eight contests in the Staples Center. For Over/Under players, the Over is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 matches between these two divisional rivals.
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Injury Concerns
The Clippers have no injuries to report heading into Game Five. For Golden State, it has been well documented that they will likely be without Center DeMarcus Cousins for the remainder of the post-season. In his absence, Center Andrew Bogut got the start for the two-time defending champions. In Game Five, Bogut scored six points, grabbed five rebounds, and generated two assists. Prior to his injury, Cousins averaged 16.3 points per game and 8.2 rebounds per match so needless to say his absence has hurt production from the Center position. The Warriors still managed to win two of their last three contests since he was side-lined.
Rest Advantages and Concerns
Both teams enter into this contest on two days of rest. Game Seven which would take place in Oakland on Sunday, if necessary.
Can Warriors Offense Score Enough To Eliminate Los Angeles?
The Warriors as a whole are known for their offensive acumen. Golden State owned the second best scoring offense in the NBA, averaging 117.7 points per game. Throughout this whole series, the Warriors have taken advantage of a favorable match-up against a Los Angeles team that sits 25th in scoring defense (114.3 points per game). Golden State has averaged 123.6 points per game in this series and should have no trouble finding opportunities to score in Game Six. The question is whether the Warriors defense can hold serve and slow down the Clippers who in their own right average 115.1 points per match (5th in the NBA). There is no reason why the Warriors should be unsuccessful in doing so as their defense averages 111.2 points against per game (16th in the NBA) and have kept the Clippers to 105 points or less in three of the games within this series. Should the Warriors contain Los Angeles’ offense, Golden State’s offense should give them ample opportunity to wrap up the series.
Can Clippers Bench Play Be The Difference Maker Yet Again?
In Game Five, the Clippers bench played a pivotal role in helping Los Angeles stage another upset. Sixth man “Sweet” Lou Williams led the way with 33 points and 10 assists followed closely by seventh man Montrez Harrell who grabbed 24 points and 5 rebounds. As a whole, the Clippers bench averages 53.6 points per game which is 23.3 points greater than Golden State’s average of 30.3 bench points per game. The discrepancy in bench play was a huge factor in deciding Game Five as the Warriors’ bench scored just 17 points while Los Angeles’ top-two bench players (Williams/Harrell) combined for 57. This works out to a 40-point difference. The Clippers will undoubtedly try to utilize this advantage to place them in position to get another win in Game Six.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Los Angeles +10
After Game Two, I was reluctant to buy into the hoop-la surrounding the Clippers’ shocking upset of the Warriors and the 31-point deficit they erased to do so. In my Game Three write-up, I implored takers to back the Warriors as a 9.5-point favorite arguing that Los Angeles was prone to come in flat after such a hard-fought win. Golden State would go on to win 132-105 and cover easy. Seemingly, business had resumed as usual. I don’t expect that to be the case here in Game Six. The Clippers know the deal. It’s win or go home. For Los Angeles, they are playing with house money at this point. No one expected the Clippers to make the playoffs and no one would have ever imagined that this outfit would extend the series to six games by winning two matches in Oakland. Contrarily, the Warriors look far more human than they have in years’ past as they are getting all they can handle from an eight-seed despite being known as the modern game’s dynasty. I see Golden State getting the job done here and wrapping this series up but not without a fight from the Clippers who undoubtedly believe they can somehow shock the basketball world. 10 points is too much to give this Los Angeles team in this scenario. Could the Clips force a Game Seven? Absolutely. Regardless of whether they do or don’t, Los Angeles will make this a four quarter game and they will be around until the very last possession. I have Golden State winning this one by no more than five points and thus encourage taking the Clippers at +10.
